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Tuesday, December 25, 2007

With Christmas Not Even Over Yet, The Media Is Already Bad Mouthing The Economy

According to analysis performed by some of the nation’s largest credit card companies, retail sales were up 3.6% this holiday shopping season.  Or 2.4% if you don’t include gasoline purchases (though it seems to me that those should be included; the economic health of our gas stations is every bit as important as the economic health of our retail stores).

Those growth rates are positive.  They’re not mind-blowing, but growth is growth.  Regardless, the media is already busy bad-mouthing the economy because these growth numbers weren’t as high as anticipated:

Spurred by heavy discounting, U.S. shoppers spent furiously in the days just before Christmas. But holiday retail sales appeared to still fall short of industry expectations, setting the stage for bigger markdowns in the increasingly important post-Christmas period.

The 11th-hour rush helped strengthen a weak holiday season. From the day after Thanksgiving to midnight Monday, total retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 3.6% over the previous year, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard Advisors. But factoring out spending on gasoline—which soared thanks to a 27% average price increase since this time last year—retail sales increased a lackluster 2.4%. Industry forecasts had predicted gains of 3.5% to as high as 4.5%.

Notice, again, that the reporters had to exclude gasoline sales in order to make it sound as though the sales growth numbers didn’t match expectations.  They make it seem like the numbers are all bad news.

But what I’m seeing is economic resiliency.  Despite the mentioned 27% increase in fuel prices, retail sales still managed 2.4% growth.  That’s actually pretty amazing.  Obviously, the fuel price situation isn’t great, but that we can take those high prices in stride and still enjoy economic growth is a testament to the health of our economy.

Update: The New York Times is calling these retail numbers “bleak,” but I’d be willing to wager that the folks at the Times would be dancing in the streets if their stock prices had seen 3.6% growth instead of the negative growth their stock has seen for most of the year.

Comments

Isn’t 3.6 or even 2.7% on top of a good year pretty good?

I’d rather have a small increase year after year than a big increase over a poor year.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


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The Whistler on December 25, 2007 at 07:04 pm
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This may be the most stunningly illogical rationalization...well, of the day, at least.

Gas prices are excluded because they’re up over 25% over last year.  The “growth” isn’t about greater consumption, but about far, far greater inflationary pressure on one specific, highly used commodity.

I am, however, a fan of the jab at the Times’ stock.  After all, the overall health of our economy is irrelevant as long as a newspaper you hate is doing poorly.  I also heard that your ex-girlfriend only got a 1.5% raise this year, so the housing market is crazy healthy!

Starscream on December 25, 2007 at 08:46 pm

This must be the MSM’s announcement of their climb-onboard the Liberal agenda bus.

Liberals gave themselves 3rd degree burns after they declared we had lost the war then used every low-life trick in their handbags to cut our troops funds and that we couldn’t trust the military to tell us the truth when the situation was actually improving there.
Lose a war to gain the White House...that seemed like a good idea to do for themselves at the time.

So, now they’ve fallen back on a tried and true subject they know they don’t have to be correct in throwing mud on the economy as it can be twisted so easily to confuse and mislead...or at least they can’t be proven so pathetically and disloyally wrong again anyway.

Anyone remember their old rallying cry? “It’s about the economy, stupid!”


"At the core of liberalism is the spoiled child - miserable, as all spoiled children are, unsatisfied, demanding, ill disciplined, despotic, and useless. Liberalism is the philosophy of sniveling brats.” - P.J. O’Rourke


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Winghunter on December 25, 2007 at 08:57 pm

Never mind that, with higher prices, less is more? We did not take the higher gas prices in stride. We bought significantly less gas at a higher price.

When you buy into the idea of surveying credit card companies as an economic indicator, you start entering the land of false promises. Credit Card Failures

Reading between the lines, people have decided that, since they’re going to lose it all anyway, they might as well have a merry Christmas. Along with the recently passed mortgage bailout for the banks, look for a credit card company bail out.

This translates into they lost, so you lose, and they win.

ews48 on December 25, 2007 at 09:08 pm

Excluding gasoline purchases is simply wrong.  There is increased holiday driving, and last year was similar.  If you want to exclude gasoline purchases, do it every year, then make the comparison.  Otherwise this is just more leftie lying propaganda.
They try to jigger the figures to fit their agenda.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on December 25, 2007 at 09:45 pm
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This may be the most stunningly illogical rationalization...well, of the day, at least.

Gas prices are excluded because they’re up over 25% over last year.  The “growth” isn’t about greater consumption, but about far, far greater inflationary pressure on one specific, highly used commodity.

But those gas purchases are still retail purchases, no?  And even without the gas, there was still growth.

Plus, Robert108 is right.  The article removes the gas sales from this year’s numbers and then compares those numbers to last year’s which include gas sales.

That’s not a fair comparison.

I agree, either compare with the gas prices or without.  But either way, the economic picture isn’t that grim at all.  We dealt with the high gas prices, and still saw economic growth.

That’s a resilient economy.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on December 25, 2007 at 11:20 pm
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By the way, EWS, the credit card companies are a perfectly acceptable way to analyze this data.  A lot of people do their shopping via credit card even when they don’t have to.  That doesn’t mean they’re running up debt.  For the vast majority, credit card debt is paid off at the end of each monthly cycle.

And also, there’s a lot of people who use debit cards as well.  Personally, I don’t have any credit cards, but I have two debit cards for two different bank accounts.  One is through Visa, the other is through Master Card.  Every transaction I do on my debit cards goes through one of those companies, but I’m not running up any debt.  It only spends money I already have.

I, personally, like that because I don’t like running a balance on a credit card.  And there’s a lot of people out there like that these days.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on December 25, 2007 at 11:23 pm

ews48 - Reading between the lines, people have decided that, since they’re going to lose it all anyway, they might as well have a merry Christmas.

So what do you do when “reading between the lines” gives one the same picture for the last 30 or so years?

likwidshoe on December 26, 2007 at 04:02 am
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You will notice that these numbers DO NOT include the friggin weekend before Christmas!  I mean the busiest shopping weekend of the whole season and they don’t include the numbers.

Our MSM with their Communist Agenda is so dedicated to throwing us into a recession in time for the elections, they just may do it.

The MSM has gone past annoying.  They have become dangerous.

And when they final numbers for the whole season come out and they look great, we won’t hear a peep about that.

Bill Mitchell on December 26, 2007 at 04:35 am
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The 11th-hour rush helped strengthen a weak holiday season. From the day after Thanksgiving to midnight Monday, total retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 3.6% over the previous year, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard Advisors.

Oops, my bad, I guess they do include the last weekend before Christmas.  I read another article that said they didn’t.

One other thing.  Many many people nowadays use their Debit Cards to make purchases (I know I do).  Does this study reflect those?  If not you are probably missing an extra 2-3% there.

Bill Mitchell on December 26, 2007 at 04:41 am
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What the press should be talking about is how miraculous it is that despite high gas prices, a MSM telling us every day we are in a recession and the housing crunch, we still had over 3% growth from a previous blockbuster year.

Bill Mitchell on December 26, 2007 at 04:43 am

bill said: Our MSM with their Communist Agenda is so dedicated to throwing us into a recession in time for the elections, they just may do it.

The MSM has gone past annoying.  They have become dangerous.

And when they final numbers for the whole season come out and they look great, we won’t hear a peep about that.

Your right its about the left trying to steal an election.


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goon on December 26, 2007 at 08:58 am

You will notice that these numbers DO NOT include the friggin weekend before Christmas!

That’s a great point Bill.  With Christmas falling on a Monday last year you wound up with a three day weekend for Christmas.  The four day weekend this year likely pushed more sales into the last weeekend.

Let’s wait until the final data comes out (as you suggest) and remember that a smaller increase over a good year is another good year.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


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The Whistler on December 26, 2007 at 09:12 am
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December retail sales numbers will not be out until January 15 of 2008.  The Novemeber retail sales were out on December 13th and surprised the journalists as they were much better than predicted!  So when December is actually reported and they revise November numbers (probably up) we will again see the MSM agenda at work.  They will do anything to throw the 2008 election to the Demcrats.

Nat on December 26, 2007 at 10:10 am
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