Whoa: Hoeven Crushes Dorgan In Head To Head Poll 53 – 36

I think I’ve been pretty clear about my utter lack of enthusiasm for a potential Senator Hoeven, but I can’t help but be surprised by the outcome of this poll even if it is sponsored by Republicans:

Hoeven Crushes Dorgan in GOP Poll: North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) led Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) 53 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and obtained by the Fix. Both Dorgan and Hoeven have extremely strong profiles in the eyes of the state’s voters. Hoeven had a stratospheric 86 percent favorable ratings while just five percent viewed him unfavorably; Dorgan had a 69/24 fav/unfav. Hoeven, who was overwhelmingly re-elected to a third term last November, has said he will make a decision on whether to challenge Dorgan by September. Earlier this week, Hoeven was asked about a Senate bid during an appearance on Bloomberg Radio and said only: “I haven’t made any decision in that regard.” Hoeven has been heavily recruited to run against Dorgan and Sen. Kent Conrad (D) in cycles past but has resisted. If he decides to run — and this poll is designed to sweeten that proposition — the North Dakota race would immediately become a toss up.

Hoeven is, at best, a liberal Republican who promotes big government and opposes tax cuts. He is no champion of conservative ideals, and would do little to help the conservative cause in Washington DC.
That being said, getting one of North Dakota’s “big three” out of office would cut the flow of national liberal money into the state (the state Democrat party gets about 85% of its money from out-of-state contributors) and would open up new channels of fundraising for Republicans in the state. Some of whom might be pretty conservative. The problem? Hoeven would likely be the gatekeeper for that money, and would direct it to his preferred candidates. Who, frankly, would probably be about as conservative as he is.
Which, as I’ve already pointed out, isn’t conservative at all.
Having Hoeven in the Senate instead of Dorgan would be a marginally better situation for North Dakota and the limited government movement. But only just barely. I want to see Dorgan out of office as much as anyone, and Hoeven may just have the political clout to do it, but conservatives won’t have a whole lot to cheer about.

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  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    geared more toward enhancing the power of the political/business elite

    Exactly, John Hoeven doesn’t give a crap about you unless you work for the government.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Rob was referring to these public/private deals with certain preferred businesses that he does in the name of economic development.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I didn’t vote for Hoeven last fall. But I expect that if he runs I’d vote for him in 2010 against Dorknob.

    That being said, I’d rather have a candidate that I could feel good about.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I can’t wait for the campaign to hear how Hoeven’s going to raise teacher salaries again.

  • http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

    I am not sure that Hoven would be a gain for the GOP. There isn’t much difference in the two.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    That’s what happens when a liberal Republican gets into office. They never leave.

    ND did pass term limits for their national office holders. That was declared invalid by the US Supreme Court who generally act to convey more power to the government.

  • Brent

    Yeah, this type of thing should raise our hopes up (even if we know we are just going to get let down by years of poor performance later). But it doesn’t. Who cares? It is like watching a Dorgan vs. Conrad primary for governor. Either way, it wouldn’t make a ton of difference who won.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    A few although I expect the court to be nibbling around the edges of R v W like they have rather than completely overrule the decision.

  • RJ Richards

    I still have a feeling that Dorgan would beat the Moustache head to head. Dorgan has more money than Mathern and he is a ruthless campaigner.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Here’s a whole country about the same geography and population and they have fewer people in Government than ND does.

    We could take ‘em. That is if we wanted to own Guyana.

  • http://northerngleaner.blogspot.com/ Gene

    Years ago my dad was set to run against Senator Milton Young from North Dakota in 1960. He died before he could do so. 50 years ago this summer.

    His objection was that Milt Young was too liberal. And he stayed in office from 1945-1891. He became very powerful and was president Pro Tem of the Senate. That’s what happens when a liberal Republican gets into office. They never leave.

    Who will run against a liberal Hoeven if he wins?

    Harrumph

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    it’s directed to Hoeven.

    I agree.

  • GrampsWithCramps

    While I agree Hoeven is not a true conservative, we all better jump on the bandwagon and urge him to run. If he gets into the Senate race, I believe it will also bring forward some strong conservatives to challenge Pomeroy. Kevin Cramer, for example. If Hoeven keeps a strong lead, it could have coat-tails to elect a conservative House member too.

    Think of the possibility: North Dakota, who hasn’t elected a Republican to a federal position in 29 years (Mark Andrews in 1980), electing TWO in the same year!

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    It isn’t. Like it or not, it was decided by Roe v. Wade.

    It would if they support pro-life judges on the Supreme court.

  • Brent

    RJRS,

    I agree that Dorgan would win in the end. Probably by a considerable amount. Far more money, far more favors to call in. Just the other day, there was a manufacturing plant that was going to close and layoff many of the small town’s workers. With amazing coincidence, the next week the company got a billion dollar federal contract and the plant stayed open (because Dorgan bribed… I mean, asked them to stay open).

    Hoeven would have done the same thing – don’t get me wrong. But he can’t do the same thing, which is one of many reasons why he wouldn’t win.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I’d say this poll has as much legitimacy as the economist who maintains the Alerus has a huge economic impact on Grand Forks.

    That depends. My understanding is that campaigns have better polls than the ones the news media report on. That doesn’t mean the media will release the poll if they don’t like the message.

    I’ll tell you for one thing for sure, if they didn’t like the poll the Republicans wouldn’t have released it.

  • badlands4

    This is no surprise to me. It is talk all over town here, whether you overhear a conversation of the people in front of you in line at Walmart, or the conversation of neighbors and co-workers, it is all the same thing…if Schaefer won’t run, they want Hoeven to run.

    Do I think that Gov Hoeven is a conservative? No, of course not…would I rather see him as our senator vs Dorgan or Conrad? YES.

    I happen to actually like him overall, so maybe I am biased ;)

  • tom

    Nobody thought Daschle would lose either. It is possible. It won’t be easy. I don’t believe Hoeven would support such liberal ideas like cap and trade. He ain’t perfect but by sending him we would not be sending a socialist Dem back to Washington. We have to start somewhere.

  • badlands4

    I just hate his policies.

    Well, he did run the Bank of North Dakota, so I think it is pretty clear where he stands lol

    Can we just get somebody who doesn’t have a Donald Trump hair cut? I am at the point where even that would be enough to make me happy if it means Dorgan is gone..lol

    I think he has done positive things to diversify the economy, so I give him credit for that, but I don’t have the delusion that he would be a fiscal conservative, but I def think he would be a better choice than who is up there now.

  • http://northerngleaner.blogspot.com/ Gene

    Here’s a whole country about the same geography and population and they have fewer people in Government than ND does.

  • robert108

    …the political/business elite…

    The political elite just reaches into your paycheck and takes your money; the business elite has to give you something you want in return for your money, and you can opt out.
    Big difference.

  • badlands4

    We could take ‘em. That is if we wanted to own

    Minot AFB is the third most powerful country in the world ;) lol

  • robert108

    TW: I agree that business can only be truly greedy when it gets preferential treatment from politicians. As you know, I’m against govt being involved in the private sector in any way.

  • http://northerngleaner.blogspot.com/ Gene

    What puzzles me about the Hoeven Administration as an outsider is how can the state government be so overbloated. It’s like the Agriculture dept. One bureaucrat for every farmer.

    Saddest day for them is if their farmer dies.

    What happens when State Government in NODAK is one for one, bureaucrat per citizen. How close are we now. Sure this is hyperbole, but in truth North Dakota is a big state in Real Estate but a tiny iddy biddy state in people. And the Economics are pretty simple if left alone.

    The COUNTY I live in (Kane) has more people than ND. Columbus OHIO is about ND size in people.

    How do those counties and cities with like people to serve manage to do so with FAR FAR fewer employees on the government payroll.

    ND is a mid sized city or a large county.

    Yet it thinks in it’s government that it’s New York.

    Get things scaled back to common sense size that Gov Hoeven didn’t get done.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    We agree on that.

  • Brent

    Nobody thought Daschle would lose either. It is possible. It won’t be easy.

    Daschle lost because he became the public face of the national democrat party, while representing a red state. Dorgan is not nearly so stupid.

    I don’t believe Hoeven would support such liberal ideas like cap and trade. He ain’t perfect but by sending him we would not be sending a socialist Dem back to Washington. We have to start somewhere.

    Hoeven’s major professional achievement, other than pork barreling state government and taking credit for pork brought home by the congressional delegation, is riding high on a state government that had been somewhat whipped into shape by Governor Schafer’s good work. In addition, Hoeven has the claim to fame of running a government bank. Does anyone think that Hoeven would have voted against TARP? Dorgan voted against TARP. So really, it is hard to say who is more conservative (i.e., less liberal), in spite of political party identifications.

  • ec99

    “according to a poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee”

    I’d say this poll has as much legitimacy as the economist who maintains the Alerus has a huge economic impact on Grand Forks.

  • ec99

    ” if they didn’t like the poll the Republicans wouldn’t have released it.”

    The poll is not for the benefit of the electorate, it’s directed to Hoeven. They’re pissing their pants to get him to run. Just like they want Ed to run. Neither will. As I’ve said before, they’ll bow out, and the ND Repubs will nominate another lamb. And please don’t mention Cramer, he wouldn’t stand a chance.

  • ec99

    “Why even try! We’ll never win! Let’s just resign ourselves to a lifetime of liberal leaders because EC99 said so.”

    Excellent observation! You have it exactly right! See what can be learned from history?

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Rob got up on the grumpy side of the microchip today.

  • billy

    Dorgan has been in Congress for 29 years. He’s a skilled, left/populist demagogue. Even as a liberal Republican — which in this case probably means porkbarrelling — Hoeven would a million times better on policy.

    Dorgan’s lifetime ACU rating is under 17 percent. Even a liberal Republican like Olympia Snowe is 48 percent.

    http://www.acuratings.org/2008all.htm

    Hoeven will also be a pro-life Senator, if that’s an issue.

    Here’s the Washington Post blog item:

    * Hoeven Crushes Dorgan in GOP Poll: North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) led Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) 53 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and obtained by the Fix. Both Dorgan and Hoeven have extremely strong profiles in the eyes of the state’s voters. Hoeven had a stratospheric 86 percent favorable ratings while just five percent viewed him unfavorably; Dorgan had a 69/24 fav/unfav. Hoeven, who was overwhelmingly re-elected to a third term last November, has said he will make a decision on whether to challenge Dorgan by September. Earlier this week, Hoeven was asked about a Senate bid during an appearance on Bloomberg Radio and said only: “I haven’t made any decision in that regard.” Hoeven has been heavily recruited to run against Dorgan and Sen. Kent Conrad (D) in cycles past but has resisted. If he decides to run — and this poll is designed to sweeten that proposition — the North Dakota race would immediately become a toss up.

  • http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

    easy.

    Daschle lost because he became the public face of the national democrat party, while representing a red state. Dorgan is not nearly so stupid.

    If Senator Comb Over Dorgan votes for Cap and Trade and National Health Care we might find out if he is as stupid as Daschle.

  • ec99

    “Hoeven will also be a pro-life Senator, if that’s an issue.”

    It isn’t. Like it or not, it was decided by Roe v. Wade.

  • ec99

    “But hey, keep throwing rocks at anyone who tries to make a difference.”

    Who’s throwing rocks? You’re the one who has ceaselessly criticized Hoeven as a tax and spend liberal. I’m just saying that the ND Repubs have never nominated a candidate who can beat the Holy Trinity. Do you care to disagree with that?

  • ec99

    “It would if they support pro-life judges on the Supreme court.”

    How many precedents have been overruled by subsequent courts?

  • ec99

    And then Scalia and Kennedy drop dead and suddenly Obama has 5 appointees.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Sotormayor=Souter.

    Next up to leave is Stevens or Ruth Buzzy Ginsburg.

  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Petraeus Last Best Hope

    If the candidate has an R behind the name, give your vote enthusiastically to him/her if you want Harry Reid removed as Majority Leader in the Senate

    If the candidate has an R behind the name, eagerly give your vote to him/her if you want Nancy Pelosi removed as Speaker of the House

    Put down your ideological purity for a greater good: the defeat of the Obama agenda.

  • Geoguy

    At least Hoeven would be able to finish up the Republicanization of North Dakota’s politics and would serve as an impetus in getting rid of Conrad later. Imagine a solid Red North and South Dakota, and how that could work on Montana and in revamping Minnesota’s pathetic Republican contingent. These Dimocrat Senators are going to have to answer for their party’s policies and for the Graf Zeppelin that is also known as the Obama administration.
    A RINO is better than the Bluest Blue Dog.

  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Petraeus Last Best Hope

    AMEN brother Geoguy…the Obama agenda must die and those Dems who enable it must be defeated. Any other considerations by friends who want Pelosi/Reid/Obama removed from power are “luxury sentiments” America cannot afford in this critical hour.

    NOV.2010: THE RIGHT TIME FOR AMERICA

  • brain trust

    Did they ask any of the new voters ACORN signed up or maybe they couldn’t find any of them.

  • Bat One

    Did they ask any of the new voters ACORN signed up or maybe they couldn’t find any of them.

    Brain Trust,

    The few they could find spoke only Spanish… or ebonics.

  • Bat One

    The Dallas Cowboys are all in pre-season training camp, Mickey and the gang are all safe at Disneyland, and the rest were most likely dead anyway.

  • ec99

    “I expect the court to be nibbling around the edges of R v W like they have rather than completely overrule the decision.”

    Not for the next 20 years. We have minimum 3 1/2 years left of Obama. He has already nominated a candidate whose only qualifications are that she’s a female Hispanic. She is on record as believeing the Constitution has no validity. Obama will likely be able to put 1 to 2 more people on the SCOTUS, of equal or worse judicial opinion.

  • tom

    Gene, While Milt Young may have been too liberal for your tastes, North Dakotans did not have to fear the threat to their liberties as we do with our current representation. If we have to support Hoeven to have any chance of protecting those liberties than we should. Too many people in the last election did not support McCain becuz he was too liberal now we have more liberalism in the White House than this country will be able to stand. I too would like a more conservative choice and will be active in the selection process to achieve that end, but if our candidate is not I will not take my ball and go home. There is too much at stake.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Excellent observation! You have it exactly right! See what can be learned from history?

    We’ll keep repeating history with attitudes like yours.

    But hey, keep throwing rocks at anyone who tries to make a difference.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I’d say this poll has as much legitimacy as the economist who maintains the Alerus has a huge economic impact on Grand Forks.

    Which is why I referred to the poll’s source in the post.

    And please don’t mention Cramer, he wouldn’t stand a chance.

    Yeah, we should all just sit in our basements and be grumpy about it. Why even try! We’ll never win! Let’s just resign ourselves to a lifetime of liberal leaders because EC99 said so.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Hoeven would have done the same thing – don’t get me wrong. But he can’t do the same thing, which is one of many reasons why he wouldn’t win.

    He tries to do the same thing. Look at how often he shows up at the press photo-ops and ribbon-cuttings for pork projects paid for by money brought in by the big three.

    Hoeven was just defending himself recently for taking partial credit for the $100 million Basin Electric got in “stimulus” money from the Obama administration. And yesterday he was in the news trying to bully a private airliner into keeping up unprofitable flights into Minot.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I happen to actually like him overall, so maybe I am biased

    I’ve always heard that Gov. Hoeven is a very nice man on a personal level. So in that respect, I like him too.

    I just hate his policies. I think they’re predicated on economic illiteracy, and geared more toward enhancing the power of the political/business elite than maintaining individualism and equal opportunity.

  • sayanything-6955

    If bad rug dorgan votes against cap and tax, and O Bummercare, then you can take it to the bank that poll is dead on.

  • sayanything-6955

    That depends. My understanding is that campaigns have better polls than the ones the news media report on. That doesn’t mean the media will release the poll if they don’t like the message.

    Almost always campaign polls are very accurate.

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