Where Taxpayers Moved To (And Away From) In 2007-2008

The Fargo Forum ran an AP graph on Sunday documenting population changes in 2007 and 2008. The data was culled from IRS data and shows some interesting patterns.

Alabama: Net gain of 6,352 households. Biggest gains came from Florida and Michigan.
Alaska: Net loss of 849 households. Biggest losses went to Washington State and Oregon.
Arizona: Net gain of 20,300 households. Biggest gains came from California and Michigan.
Arkansas: Net gain of 3,253 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
California: Net loss of 19,680 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Arizona.
Colorado: Net gain of 17,583 households. Biggest gains came from California and Michigan.
Connecticut: Net loss of 6,158 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and North Carolina.
Delaware: Net gain of 1,946 households. Biggest gains came from Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Florida: Net loss of 3,591 households. Biggest losses went to Georgia and North Carolina.
Georgia: Net gain of 37,559 households. Biggest gains came from Florida and New York
Hawaii: Net gain of 646 households. Biggest gains came from Michigan and California.
Idaho: Net gain of 3,836 households. Biggest gains came from California and Nevada.
Illinois: Net loss of 9,888 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Indiana.
Indiana: Net loss of 1,344 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Tennessee.
Iowa: Net gain of 1,472 households. Biggest gains came from foreigners.
Kansas: Net loss of 473 households. Biggest losses went to Oklahoma and Colorado.
Kentucky: Net gain of 4,424 households. Biggest gains came from Ohio and Michigan.
Louisiana: Net gain of 4,987 households. Biggest gains came from foreigners.
Maine: Net loss of 712 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and California.
Maryland: Net loss of 8,167 households. Biggest losses went to North Carolina and Virginia.
Massachusetts: Net loss of 3,788 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and California.
Michigan: Net loss of 37,370 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and Texas.
Minnesota: Net loss of 3,124 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Arizona.
Mississippi: Net gain of 1,007 households. Biggest gains came from Tennessee and foreigners.
Missouri: Net gain of 109 households. Biggest gains came from foreigners.
Montana: Net gain of 2,072 households. Biggest gains from California and Michigan.
Nebraska: Net loss 1,667 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Colorado.
Nevada: Net gain of 9,329 households. Biggest gains came from California and Michigan.
New Hampshire: Net loss of 1,147 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and North Carolina.
New Jersey: Net loss of 19,285 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and Pennsylvania.
New Mexico: Net gain of 630 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
New York: Net loss of 28,376 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and North Carolina.
North Carolina: Net gain of 40,995 households. Biggest gains came from Florida and New York.
North Dakota: Net loss of 90 households. Biggest losses went to Colorado and Texas.
Ohio: Net loss of 20,575 households. Biggest losses went to Florida and Texas.
Oklahoma: Net gain of 2,988 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
Oregon: Net gain of 10,728 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
Pennsylvania: Net loss of 5,472 households. Biggest losses went to North Carolina and Florida.
Rhode Island: Net loss of 3,374 households. Biggest losses went to Massachusetts and Florida.
South Dakota: Net gain of 1,037 households. Biggest gains came from Iowa and Minnesota.
South Carolina: Net gain of 20,482 households. Biggest gains came from Florida and New York.
Tennessee: Net gain of 12,961 households. Biggest gains came from Florida and Michigan.
Texas: Net gain of 62,827 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
Utah: Net gain 6,097 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
Vermont: Net loss of 1,356 households. Biggest losses went to North Carolina and California.
Virginia: Net gain of 5,210 households. Biggest gains came from Maryland and New York.
Washington: Net gain of 18,029 households. Biggest gains came from California and foreigners.
West Virginia: Net gain of 1,291 households. Biggest gains came from Maryland and Virginia.
Wisconsin: Net loss of 4,809 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Minnesota.
Wyoming: Net gain of 1,922 households. Biggest gains came from Michigan and California.

This goes hand in hand with an earlier post by Rob. Taxpayers are fleeing the northeast, especially New York in droves. Overtaxed states like California, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan are also hemmoraging population. The beneficiaries of this migration are largely states in the South, especially the Southeast. Two other big gainers were Oregon and Washington, which saw a big influx of Californians and what the article calls “foreigners”. This population shifts can reflect many things, including an aging population looking to move to warmer climes. But the tax policies in many of these “losing” states certainly plays a role too, and doesn’t bode well for their futures.

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  • http://Array sayanything-3417

    Ahh but what are statistics without a little analysis?

    First… the correlation between losers & gainers and states that fell Democrat & Republican in the 2008 presidential race. In 36 of the 50 cases, losers fell Democrat and gainers fell Republican. That’d be 72%. Interesting… some people call that a “mandate”. Not surprising, tho.

    Next… the correlation between losers & gainers and tax burdens by state. I did find it very telling that the ten states with the highest tax burdens all fell… wait for it… Democrat. Of the ten states with the lowest tax burden, 7 fell Republican. Again, go figure.

    And in round numbers, the top 10 burdensome states lost about 109,000 households and the lowest 10 burdensome picked up about 107,000. Interesting coincidence.

    There were 22 losers total. 18 fell Democrat. Of the 28 gainers, 16 fell Republican.

    Average tax burden:
    Top 10 losers: 10.54% (all fell Democrat)
    Top 5 gainers: 8.76% (half fell Democrat)

    And there you have it.

  • sayanything-3417

    Right. As we all know, the giant wall surrounding Texas is much taller on it’s interstate borders, so all those illegals are trapped in Texas against their will.

  • sayanything-3417

    And as always, when you can’t argue or debate, the best course of action is to resort to ad hominem attacks.

    Honestly… if people want to be fat, who cares? Oh… I guess it matters when you’re trying to pay for the socialist health care scheme you’re forcing on everyone but yourself.

    If people want to be illiterate or live in poverty, that’s their problem. These are both self-correctable conditions. It’s not government’s job to “correct” them. In fact, government’s “helping hand” has done more to cause these conditions than correct them.

  • ec99

    None of this is new. I lived in CA from the mid-60s to the early-80s, same story. Small businesses where handcuffed by inane governmental regulations and taxes were outrageous. I met a couple who had moved out there to start up a bakery. Both state and local govt built a Berlin Wall in front of them. They moved back to Wisconsin. Prop 13 passed so easily because CA had a huge surplus, and was still raising taxes. Now CA has to educate illegals, pay for their health care, and put up with a govt gone haywire. The climate is great out there, but I’d never go back.

  • sayanything-42

    r108,

    Indeed. And once Oregon’s new taxes kick in we’ll see a net out migration from there as well.

    Note the single biggest winner on internal migration was Texas, at 62,827 households, mostly Californians and immigrants from other nations. Given their border with Mexico, that means an awful lot of Californians made that move to have topped the source list.

  • sayanything-42

    Yep.

    This third generation household (less than 1% of California residents are third generation native, less than half are natives) will be retiring out of state.

    I’m thinking the mountains of New Mexico or the Hill Country of Texas.

  • robert108

    Wrong again! People are now leaving CA, where they used to come to escape the cold and snow. CA is now one of the most fiscally irresponsible(high taxation and regulation) States in the union.
    Your denial of the obvious truth is funny.

  • sayanything-7134

    Cold northern states for warm southern states. Imagine that

  • sayanything-1317

    Well, there’s a few problems here I’d like to address…

    1. Everything has trade offs. Sure Illinois has taxpayer funded child insurance. That’s one of the reasons taxes are so much higher. You’re not really better off for that.

    2. TIFs are not really what I’m talking about. A TIF is more or less a gift, in anticipation of future returns. As you pointed out, that doesn’t always work (though sometimes it does, and sometimes it works halfway). And often, once the TIF dries up…so do the jobs. It’s effectively a temporary cut…which is why it often fails.
    I’m talking taxes in general. St. Louis has higher business tax rates than the surrounding areas, and a personal income tax that, with the exception of Kansas City, nowhere else in Missouri has. Businesses take this into account. “St. Louis will charge us a 7.5% tax rate, Affton will charge 4.5%, and in Fenton it’s 2.1%” Fenton will most likely get the business. While an individual may rate taxes and regulations as a minor issue, to businesses, it’s major.

    3. Living right on the Missouri/Illinois border, we see a lot of people drive to Missouri to get gas, or who prefer to get gas on our side of the river, becase it’s between 20-35 cents cheaper, depending on the time. Smokers get their cigarettes from us too, as it’s MUCH cheaper over here. People consider prices when they shop, when they travel, when they do much of anything. It’s unrealistic to assume they don’t even stop to consider what their tax burden is when they move/take a new job.

    4. Of course there are other factors than taxes. Jobs dry up sometimes and you have to move. But there’s a question in there. If taxes are raised, and jobs dry up, did the tax hikes help lead to that? In some cases the answer is “absolutely”. Especially when we talk about TIFs, which are temporary tax cuts, or sometimes even gifts, the business virtually ALWAYS seeks the TIFs expansion when it starts coming to an end. Often, when they don’t get it, they leave. Why? It raises the price of business, sometimes DRAMATICALLY. If I’ll see my taxes double, why not just move my business 20 miles to where the taxes will be even lower than they are now? Or to another state? Or to India?

    Far from not considering other things enough, I think you’re too dismissive of the role government plays in draining money from our pockets.

  • sayanything-277

    rg, you may want to check out other Texas areas like the piney woods of east Texas as the hill country has got a bit expensive. And yes, there are still some good buys in north central Texas too. Really in Texas there are a lot of choices.

  • sayanything-1317

    Wow, you know as much about people as you do about politics.

    Nothing.

    Scurry away cockroach.

  • sayanything-1641

    “Sell your $750,000 2 bedroom in California, buy New Mexico.”

    Except your $750,000 home in California now will only sell for $300,000 and you now owe $800,000 because you got a “Pick-a-Payment” variable rate home loan from Democratic fundraisers Herb and Mariom Sandler.

  • sayanything-4416

    You won’t be missed by Californians.

    Move to the south and experience white trash culture shock. Though I suspect you’ll fit in well.

  • sayanything-1317

    While it’s true that taxes aren’t the only reason people move, it IS a factor. We know that taxes are a factor on what and where people buy, what services they use, etc. And they are a MAJOR factor in where businesses build.

    While it may not be the first factor, or even the main factor, tax rates ARE considered. And when you see an overall trend like we do above, it’s fair to make that conclusion.

  • http://www.fanhistory.com LauraHale

    I just have to disagree. Illinois has a lot of taxes but there are categories that make things cheaper. If you have kids, Illinois makes health insurance affordable for them. If you’re a senior on a fixed income, the property tax issue makes it more affordable than other states. It isn’t necessarily overall low taxes but where you get those breaks.

    And there has been some evidence that things like TIFs, which give lower taxes for businesses with the intent of getting more jobs, don’t always work out to do that… Dell got a big one, built a center, created 900 of the 1,500 jobs promised and then moved the jobs to India. Texas has given out a lot of them and now counts any jobs as a result of TIFs as a success, even if the resulting jobs are thousands less than promised in exchange for those jobs. (Which might be different than what you’re talking about if you’re focusing on personal taxes, rather than business ones.)

    The local economic conditions are probably a much, much bigger factor than taxes as you’re not addressing the issue of Midwestern manufacturing jobs or the economic conditions and their impact on tourism related jobs in places like New York and California and Florida and Illinois.

  • sayanything-1641

    It’s not just the taxes, it’s what’s done with the taxes. Sometime in the 1970s, California went from being the Golden State to being the Welfare State. The result has been a huge explosion of underclass culture that lowers the quality of life for everyone. Californians now live in a state where gang-style graffiti is a constant visual in our background. We live in a state where hard-core underclass behavior surrounds us.

    Last summer my wife and I, both with extensive experience teaching in low-income California nerighborhoods, drove halfway across the country on vacation. When your a Californian and you drive through a town that’s not covered in gang graffiti, it’s like you’ve been transported to the California of your childhood.

    California has changed, and not for the better. You can argue that some of those changes were bound to happen. But a lot of those changes have been driven by government policy funded by the state’s ever increasing tax burden.

  • sayanything-2361

    “Sell your $750,000 2 bedroom in California, buy New Mexico.”

    The selling your house part is extremely wishful thinking. Did you mean short sell or foreclosed?

  • sayanything-4808

    “Borders are ridiculous.”

    Still angry over that fence the city made your mother keep you behind when you were a kid?

    “So much so that you’d eat your own mother”

    You’d know about eating your mom, wouldn’t you? I knew there was something traumatic to make you such a girl hating heterophobe.

  • sayanything-4416

    LOL, a lot of the new Texas households are illegals. But I support that. Borders are ridiculous.

  • sayanything-4416

    That’s funny. The conservative vermin that inhabit Oregon and Washington always talk about how we have the highest taxes in the country and everyone wants to move away!

    The fact that OR and WA were the big gainers blows your whole idiot theory out of the water.

    You should wait to post your idiot theories until you think about them for more than a couple seconds.

  • sayanything-4416

    We have a high income tax here in Oregon and it grew a lot.

    You should stay in Missouri. Any place you go from there will give you sticker shock. Then again, if you do move away from there you’ll have a real life. But I know how you people worship money. So much so that you’d eat your own mother if you thought you’d SH*T money.

  • sayanything-4416

    Fun with statistics.

    The most republican states have the highest obesity, illiteracy and poverty.

    Oh yeah, and they’re all in the south. LOL

  • sayanything-4416

    You forgot about illiteracy and poverty.

  • http://www.fanhistory.com LauraHale

    Behold the power of air conditioning and how it changed the face of America.

  • sayanything-1641

    “California: Net loss of 19,680 households. Biggest losses went to Texas and Arizona. ”

    While this number tells a story, it only tells part of a story.

    California’s big problem is that for the better part of a decade the state has been losing net tax payers while it has been gaining tax consumers.

    The loss in net tax payers is because the most productive Californians are getting tired of paying some of the highest taxes in the country, for some of the worst services. Additionally, various levels of state government have all but declared war on small business and successful individuals. A recent example is a decision by California Air Resources Board to force thousands and thousands of small business owners replace their perfectly good diesel engines with engines approved by CARB. Every day small business owners and successful individuals are forced to navigate a minefield of higher taxes and regulation, just for the privilege of living in a state with a rapidly declining standard of living.

    On the other hand, California has seen a huge increase in the overall population of net tax consumers. Over the last decade, even as the skilled and educated have fled the state, the population has increased. The increase has largely come from an influx of unskilled and uneducated workers from outside the state, workers whose income is too low to pay taxes. This is particularly evident to teachers. While it was uncommon to come across parents completely illiterate in any language; that is no longer the case. Also during this time California’s rate of illegitimate births has remained sky high. Children of “single mothers” use a disproportionately high level of educational resources (money), because they disproportionately require expensive remediation. The high rate of illegitimacy is the primary contributor to the state’s terrible gang problem. And the gang problem results in a high costs for property crimes and corrections (prison). The Golden State now accounts for 32 percent of America’s welfare cases. The number of subsidized (Section 8) housing units has been increasing dramatically.

    This shift in population has resulted in a huge decline in the quality of life for Californians. Those of us who pay taxes and play by the rules must now live in a social ecosystem dominated by graffiti and vulgarity. There are now two types of successful Californians, those who have left the state and those who want to leave the state.

  • sayanything-1317

    The most republican states have the highest obesity…

    Except all our states are fat. Except for Colorado, EVERY state topped 20%. Only two states topped 30. Fail.

    You’re done yet again.

  • sayanything-50

    Make money in high tax states ,
    retire in low tax, low cost of living states.
    Sell your $750,000 2 bedroom in California,
    buy New Mexico.

  • http://www.fanhistory.com LauraHale

    You mentioned taxes and cited California and Illinois. The problem is that the presence of higher taxes alone doesn’t really dictate where people go and the potential benefits of leaving a state. Remember a few months back when there was that guy who shot up a court house over what the media described as his social security payment changing? That really wasn’t the case. It was over state based aid: He moved from a high tax, high benefits state to a low tax, low benefits state. He appeared to think that in moving to Nevada, he’d take all that money with him and didn’t realize the state aid portion.

    This is true for Illinois where there are some benefits for seniors that make it better for them. This includes not having to pay property taxes, not being taxed on retirement plans, free rides for seniors on public transportation. So while some taxes are higher, it can actually be a better deal than say Wisconsin.

    Ohio and Illinois have other issues that are causing people to move: The disappearance of manufacturing jobs. The rust belt used to be an important home to thousands and thousands of jobs in manufacturing. As jobs went elsewhere, people were forced into the service economy and there just weren’t enough of those jobs to go around. This problem was at its worst in the 1990s and continued into the 2000s. One classic example of this involves Motorola. They’ve declined big time. They made some of their stuff in the US and relied on US suppliers. Mirror that.

    Given those two issues, I’m not sure of your analysis.

  • sayanything-1641

    I still think some of you are missing the point when you focus the blame on taxes and regulations. Yes California’s taxes are high and the regulations near fascist. But the real harm done to the state isn’t the money stripped out of the private sector, but what the public sector has done with that money.

    Progressive socialists have turned CA into a giant welfare state. 32 percent of the welfare cases in the entire United States are here in the Late Great Golden State. That welfare spending has fueled out of wedlock births the way gasoline fuels fire. A large proportion of the kids in California schools are the products of second, third, and fourth generation unmarried mothers, and the further they get from experiencing stable two-parent families the wilder and less civilized they become. At the same time the progressives have been supercharging irresponsible reproduction in the state, they’ve also stripped schools of the ability to effective discipline students. The worst schools have become scary places where gangs flourish. The net result of all this is that a huge percentage of 13 to 40 years embrace a law-of-the-jungle attitude where the worst thing you can do is not murder, or even getting caught for murder, but showing remorse for hurting someone. Decent people living in California must navigate this mave of uncivility on a daily basis.

    Yeah, sure it sucks to pay more in taxes than people in 47 other states. But it sucks even more to go to the park two blocks from your home and see that some gang-inspired ass clowns tagged every surface the night before.

    That’s why California is losing its most civilized and most productive citizens.

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