University of Colorado Model: Obama Loses Big!


A sophisticated computer model developed by two University of Colorado political science professors is forecasting a huge win for Mitt Romney and the GOP. From The Daily Caller:

A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.

The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

With Obama’s foreign policy and national security efforts as tattered and ineffectual as his domestic economic policy moves, it is probably more accurate to describe this forecast as an Obama loss rather than a Romney win. But semantic arguments aside, anything that removes the hapless, secular-progressive autocrat Obama from office and puts the country back on a constitutional, pro-growth, pro-US path to prosperity, is welcome news indeed.

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  • ElizabethK

    That’s the best looking map I’ve ever seen!!!

    • Jay

      You apparently never saw the 1920 Harding, 1972 Nixon, or 1980 and 1984 Reagan maps, Elizabeth.

    • Willy Lepenkroder

      How come we never get to talk about Mitts taxes or his blunders like the 47% moochers he calls Americans?

      • Jeff

        How about Obama’s college records? Or his associations with radicals like Reverend Wright and terrorists like Bill Ayres?

      • Donald Weber

        Well, Willy, he didn’t call them “moochers”; Gibbs did that to try to frame it that way; and you bought it. He said they didn’t pay taxes; a fact; and that they were highly unlikely to find value in his push to lower taxes because they don’t pay taxes and were more likely therefore to vote for Obama.

  • SigFan

    So how do you square this with all the MSM hyperventilation about Obama winning? Oh, that’s right, the MSM are an extension of the Obamao campaign.

    Let’s hope these guys keep their perfect record intact and Obama is sent packing in November. 48 days until the only poll that really matters.

    • Proof

      I remember the MSM breathlessly predicting a Mondale win, too. Anyone here remember President Mondale???

      • SigFan

        Yeah – and Carter was beating Reagan at this point and I believe Algore was beating GWB at a similar time. A friend sent me this link, and if these numbers are to be believed, Obama is in for a whupping.

        • Bat One

          Funny thing about pre-election polls, Sig. There’s a long, bitterweet history of the results leaning left right up until the balloting starts in earnest. Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Nikki Haley in South Carolina, Gov. MacDonald in Virginia, Scott Walker in Wisconsin (twice!). I’m not sure if its because or liberals oversampling Democrats, or whether a lot of those polled are just saying what they know the pollsters want to hear as a way of telling them to mind their own damn business, but I expect the same ironic results this November.

  • mikemc1970

    I’m kind of dubious about him winning every swing state, but I think he’ll win enough to take the Presidency.

  • Jay

    Any model showing Romney winning Minnesota is one I’m highly skeptical of.

    • Bat One

      Again, I think the point is that Obama is losing, rather than that Romney is winning. Granted, the result is the same, but its the repudiation of Obama’s policies, his basic lack of honesty and seriousness, and his method of “governance” that is most important.

  • mickey_moussaoui

    What is wrong with Iowan’s anyway? These are hard working farmers not lazy ass liberals. What in the fu@k retarded these people? The left consider them “fly over country” and they continue to vote for these assholes. I don’t get it

    • flamemeister

      Huge subsidies, wind farms, ethanol, very liberal schools, guilty rich …

    • Jay

      The GOP recently took a voter-registration advantage in Iowa. I would imagine the Hawkeye State would vote for Romney before Minnesota, which hasn’t for a Republican presidential nominee since 1972.

    • Lived There

      I’ll tell you why. These folks are not conservative as a whole. They are liberal in their views for the most part. You must remember, IA has legalized gay marriage. (Granted it came about by judicial fiat but not all of those justices were voted out of office and it still stands.) IA tends to be heavily democratic in the metro areas and they vote democratic.

    • Psnivy

      I’m a lazy ass liberal female with a career no gov’t assistance and I’m voting for the incumbent..fuck romney

  • Gern Blanston

    Haven’t seen this story make any national headlines yet. I mean – predicting every election since 1980 seems impressive. I wonder if it would have garnered more attention had it predicted Obama the victor… probably, since that would have been a truley incredible story.

  • Geoff

    Oh… Do I wish this to be true. However, I think it’s much closer race than that. But I have no scientific data to say that it isn’t so.

  • stan25

    I think this map is wrong. The only state, maybe, that will be for Obama is California. Then again, I could be wrong and California trends with the rest of the rest of the country and gives Romney a 50 state mandate. I know people in Nevada and they all are saying that Obama is toast there.

  • Neiman

    If this is almost a 50:50 country, unless Democrats stay home in large numbers, this computer model does not compute.

  • Flo

    I’ve been watching for an update since this was published on 8/23/12. It looks like this is the same version as before. Do you know if they’ve checked to see if there are any potential changes since then. I thought I saw somewhere that they’d do an update in September sometime.

  • borborygmi

    That is probably pretty good indicator no matter what the polls are currently showing.
    A successful Mitt Romney would be the greatest threat to Conservatives and their future political existence then President Obama getting reelected, especially after they altered the rules at the RNC. The only states I would question would be Minnesota and Iowa.

  • JustRuss

    Except that it only looks at the two primary parties. When you include 3rd and 4th parties suddenly the vote can be split and people can play spoiler. I’m not feeling safe yet.

    • tony_o2

      Which is why the far-left sticks with the Democrat party. If they ran with the Communist Party USA, they would get just as many votes as Ross Perot. They wouldn’t win on their own, and they would take votes from their closest allies. Plus, it doesn’t take many empty promises to appease them.

  • $8194357

    (anything that removes the hapless, secular-progressive autocrat Obama from office and puts the country back on a constitutional, pro-growth, pro-US path to prosperity, is welcome news indeed.)
    Now thats a whole lotta truth in a little sentence..

  • borborygmi

    I figured the map is pretty close to correct but it didn’t factor in Mitt’s mouth full of shoe