Uncharted Territory: Final Gallup Poll Sees Republicans Picking Up Over 60 Seats
It would be the worst mid-term for an in-power party in 50 years if Republicans pick up 60 seats, and Gallup is saying they’ll pick up that many at a minimum, with more a distinct possibility.
Gallup’s latest findings this morning predict Republicans will easily gain the necessary 39 seats to seize control of the House regardless of voter turnout. They predict a minimum GOP gain of 60 seats “with gains well beyond that possible.” That kind of rout would be the worst shellacking of a president’s party in a half-century.
For comparison, the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994 saw the party gain 54 House seats in Bill Clinton’s first midterm, previously the largest loss by a president’s party in 50 years.
The final poll of 1,539 likely voters finds 52-55% preferring the GOP generic congressional candidate while only 40-42% prefer the Democrat. The range is due to turnout variables.
Gallup notes that the unprecedented 15-point gap in favor of Republican candidates on its latest generic congressional ballot tally “could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.” The surge is so large, Gallup says, “that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory.”
Meanwhile, as Democrats try to find a crest somewhere in this wave, Republicans are downplaying expectations this election eve as you might expect.
But however large the Republican take over is, ultimately, it’s a stinging rebuke to Democrats for the policies of the last two years.Tags: election 2010, gallup, polls