Tonight’s Results: No Clear Front Runner

The Whistler  •  January 9, 2008

Hillary won in New Hampshire tonight, and that was crucial for her. An Obama win would have generated too much momentum from him for Hillary to overcome. But on the Republican side things are much more interesting.
McCain’s win tonight means nothing except that there’s no clear front runner. Huckabee won in Iowa, but his appeal in states not dominated by values voters is limited. He won’t be the nominee. Romney, despite dumping tens of millions of dollars on a strategy that hinged upon winning the early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire has come away with nothing more than a consolation prize in Wyoming. Meanwhile McCain’s win in New Hampshire was pretty much what everyone expected given that he’d sort of put all his eggs in that basket, but it’s doubtful that he can carry that momentum to other states. Giuliani continues to bide his time waiting for the primaries in the bigger states later on.
Which leaves Thompson with a golden opportunity that is also probably his last opportunity. It all goes to South Carolina where he’s already busy campaigning having skipped New Hampshire. South Carolina is Thompson’s home turf. If he wins there he can carry that momentum forward to other states as a credible consensus candidate. If he loses, he’s out. That’s the breaks.
If Thompson’s out of the race I think it comes down to Giuliani, McCain and Romney, iif he can resuscitate his campaign after two disappointing losses in states where he invested a great deal of himself. If Thompson’s in the race (and I think he will be, though South Carolina is certainly no sure thing for him) I think it’ll come down to him and Rudy with Huckabee continuing to fade as the primary process moves out of the bible belt.

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  • http://www.fred08.com/ Winghunter

    Federalist-live-free-or-die-government-out-off-my-business-tax-hating
    New Hampshire Republican electorate

    You gave no warning and I didn’t have my boots on.

    McCain wins with Romney 2nd and you offer that to define New Hampshire voters!? What is this, your application to write for the AP?

    http://sayanythingblog.com/readers/entry/candidate_research_know_who_youre_voting_for/

  • Anonomisly

    McCain wins with Romney 2nd and you offer that to define New Hampshire voters!?

    My discription of the New Hapmshire Republican electorate has nothing to do with McCain winning there or Romney having won a good 2nd place there.

    P.S. The way I see it, McCain didn’t win but the momentum to fight Romney in Michigan, as well as a slight edge in what essentially is a toss-up match for fist place there between him and Romney, potentially a ‘silver medal’ if Huckabee plays hard there too..

  • Anonomisly

    Fred Thompson – Excellent on the issues. I commend him for not pandering to the media of to the electorate. But he’s dead man walking too. Two great debate perfomances during the weekend only helped him get 1% in very Federalist-live-free-or-die-government-out-off-my-business-tax-hating
    New Hampshire Republican electorate. Not many states have a greater percentage of those.

    But the most obvious reasons is Mike Huckabee,the guy stealing what should have been the bulk of Fred Thompson’s constituency with a passion.

    I just don’t see Fred going from getting 1% — under performing Ron Paul by ~80% — in New Hampshire Republican Party Primary to the general election. I don’t see him — after inevitably loosing badly in Iowa, NH, Michigan, and Nevada — getting first place in South Carolina. I see him –after South Carolina at the latest –endorsing his long time buddy John McCain.

  • Anon

    Guiliani is done. Why? He couldn’t make the turn around in NH, a state that should actually be more receptive to him than Florida. Florida: Lot of Evangelicals in the Republican party. NH: A Northeast State, lot of fiscal conservatives (actually on of the best tax system in the country), relatively non-religious and not so much socially conservative Republicans.

    Need more?

    January 8, 2008

    If Rudy Giuliani finishes near the bottom of the pack in New Hampshire, it will not be for a lack of trying.

    According to an ABC News tally of his campaign events, the former New York mayor has held more campaign events in New Hampshire (126) than John McCain (104). The only G.O.P. candidate who has held more Granite State events than Hizzoner is Mitt Romney (176).

    He also has made a substantial investment on television.

    While Giuliani never went on the air in Iowa, he spent $2.5 million on New Hampshire television ads. It was only when his campaign saw that he was losing ground in the state that he scaled back his advertising

  • Douglas Krell

    Just watching McCain give that restrained automaton-like acceptance speech leaves me CCCCCold.
    His NIRO actions aside, he stinks at speech making…no eye contact…looks down at his notes…stumbles…NOT the leader of the freeworld. Sounds a little like Dr. Evil in fact. Watch MITT or FRED, razor like focus, impassioned speechmaking…thats inspiration brother.

  • Anonomisly

    Mitt Romney is on the precipice. Why? He has been close to Fred Thompson greatness lately in terms of talking the talk, but the guy was governor of the state that has given NH over 10% of its population and still couldn’t win. Heck, he actually has a home in NH! ..but that’s not the main reason. He still in it, but has been dropping so fast is hard to see him recover. His best chance would have been Nevada, not Michigan, but than McCain he’ll be fighting on McCain’s turf – the West, young man.

  • Anonomisly

    Huck? dude, doesn’t pander. He actually holds to heart shit kind of policies he got. But he’s playing identity politics like a pro, which is great to win the primary of a party in which church regulars play such a big role. Disaster for the general election, where he doesn’t ad much voter Bush didn’t get in 2004, but would bleed socially moderate/liberal fiscal conservatives — i.e. a big chunk of well educated, Republican professionals — like a sieve. He would be specially bad against Clinton. Why? well let just say women make significantly over half of the general electorate, Clinton in the general election would, for good or for bad, be a historic moment to them.

    But he’s a pro in the primary. He will most likely finish second or third in Michigan, with a slight chance of finishing fist. Will do well in SC – possibly fist, probably second. and great in Bible loving Lousiana, which has it’s caucus just before Florida. He will do great in states with closed primaries.

    By the time we get to Florida Guiliani will either do what he did in New Hampshire or try a last stand in which there won’t be much for him. Huck will finish either first of second there.

    But, as Gene wouldd tell us he is a pro at identity politics during the primary, …

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/062745.php

    I once personally like him. He turns me off no so much with his Christianism, but with his populism. He should go to a Tom Coburn –the relgious-and-weird-with-it guy from Oklahoma that is actually one of the best current Senator — re-education camp.

  • imagine

    Fred is cooked. stick a fork in him.

  • Anonomisly

    Ron Paul (aka Dark Nader, lol) , let just say that he my tickle himself and run as a third party candidate, specially is Huckabee is the Republican nominee.

  • Douglas Krell

    Ooops I mean RINO…Republican In Name Only.

  • HG

    The polls in SC do not look good for Thompson with a recent drop from 12-11%. Huckabee is leading with 28, McCain with 21, and Romney with 15. I almost wish Thompson would drop out and make his endorsement so as to deny Huckabee another victory. Michigan is polling almost even between Huckabee and Romney.

  • Anonomisly

    Guiliani:

    “‘It is not inconceivable,” Giuliani told The Washington Post’s Dan Balz, “that you could, if you won Florida [after losing in the early states], turn the whole thing around. “‘I’d rather not do it that way. That would create ulcers for my entire staff and for me. . . . We want to win as many of the early ones as possible. That’s why we’re here [New Hampshire] and not in Florida right now.’”

    I agree.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105455&page=1

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Dropping out now is premature, especially for someone in Thompson’s position. If a consensus is possible in the GOP right now (and given all the hostility of late I wonder if it is) he’s the candidate for it.

    Meaning that even if he misses his make-or-break moment in SC he can still hang around and win if no other strong candidate emerges.

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