Say Anything Blog

Hillary won in New Hampshire tonight, and that was crucial for her.  An Obama win would have generated too much momentum from him for Hillary to overcome.  But on the Republican side things are much more interesting.

McCain’s win tonight means nothing except that there’s no clear front runner.  Huckabee won in Iowa, but his appeal in states not dominated by values voters is limited.  He won’t be the nominee.  Romney, despite dumping tens of millions of dollars on a strategy that hinged upon winning the early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire has come away with nothing more than a consolation prize in Wyoming.  Meanwhile McCain’s win in New Hampshire was pretty much what everyone expected given that he’d sort of put all his eggs in that basket, but it’s doubtful that he can carry that momentum to other states.  Giuliani continues to bide his time waiting for the primaries in the bigger states later on.

Which leaves Thompson with a golden opportunity that is also probably his last opportunity.  It all goes to South Carolina where he’s already busy campaigning having skipped New Hampshire.  South Carolina is Thompson’s home turf.  If he wins there he can carry that momentum forward to other states as a credible consensus candidate.  If he loses, he’s out.  That’s the breaks.

If Thompson’s out of the race I think it comes down to Giuliani, McCain and Romney, iif he can resuscitate his campaign after two disappointing losses in states where he invested a great deal of himself.  If Thompson’s in the race (and I think he will be, though South Carolina is certainly no sure thing for him) I think it’ll come down to him and Rudy with Huckabee continuing to fade as the primary process moves out of the bible belt.