Tom Dennis At the Grand Forks Herald Needs to Learn What Risk Means

The Grand Forks Alerus Center

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Financial Disaster on the Prairie

Right on the cue the editorial board of the Grand Forks Herald is defending the Alerus Center’s losses on the Britney Spears Concert:

There’s a fine line between being aggressive and foolish.

But what the Alerus is doing is incompetent and stupid considering the current management can’t make a profit with any concert.

The Alerus Center didn’t make money. But neither did it lose its shirt. That could have happened if Spears had drawn only, say, 3,000 or 4,000 fans. Not only would the center have wound up losing hundreds of thousands of dollars, but also the concert’s economic impact on the city would have been slim.

Well now we know the Herald has a definition of failure. It’s not selling 6,000 seats less than they planned, it’s selling 16,000 less seats. Way to set the bar so low that the Alerus could never be a considered a failure by the editorial board.

As it was, the bad news is that the center lost $97,000. The good news is that 13,019 fans attended the concert, and some fair share of them spent money in town. In fact, the fans are estimated to have spent at least $1.9 million, said UND economist David Flynn.

The UND economists was paid to produce a glowing the report of the Alerus and events held there. How much [he was paid] we don’t know. Heck Herald readers don’t even know that the study was paid for because the Herald is keeping them in the dark. [This glowing report seems to be deeply flawed rather than giving the public a true picture.]
It has recently come to light that this study apparently is counting people living in East Grand Forks as out of town consumers that wouldn’t have spent their money in Grand Forks without Britney bringing them in there. Yeah, that’s unbelievable and makes one think that the entire study is worthless. Come to think of it, the same could be said on the Herald’s Alerus coverage.

Granted, losing nearly $100 grand hurts, especially when center managers spoke in June of the prospect of making $300,000 or more. If the Spears concert had drawn 18,000-plus full-paying fans, the profits would have been huge.

That’s too funny. And if money grew on trees we’d all be billionaires.

The Britney Spears concert was a calculated but reasonable and ultimately worthwhile risk.

Where did the public get a chance to weigh in on whether or not we wanted to foolishly squander our money on Britney Spears. Generally the system works in that our elected officials use the delegated powers that we gave them to make these decisions. They make these decisions in open forums where the public has a chance to give their opinion.
So we’ve wasted $100,000. How did that happen without going through the political process.
This is bad enough that the editorial board would mislead us. It’s much worse that the news side of the business isn’t giving the public the facts.
This was an unmitigated disaster in that we lost money and the city leaders are lying to us by using a manufactured study. Judging by what I hear around town, nobody’s buying it either.

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  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I feel sorry for the guy now.

  • Anon

    I could make a very good arguement that The Alerus Gang began their conspiring LONG ago to get The Alerus approved. The downtown post-flood grant zone? Conspired to negatively effect the north end and future Alerus banquet and entertainment competitors. The end result, north end now blighted. Lack of vision for the downtown area post-flood? Conspiracy to push out and curtail development in an attempt to increase viability of The Aleurs. The Gang and Herald not supporting The Gov not selling disaster loans to private entities? Conspiracy to damage local businesses and the market to increase the viability of the Alerus. The Gang infililtrating every economic development entity in the market for them and their cronie’s own personal gain at the expense of the community? Conspiracy. The mis-spending of millions and millions of disaster funds on infrastructure that was earmarked for business? Conspiracy. I can add more, but we get the point. What’s the end result? Relatively flat development of Grand Forks in relation to Fargo and Bismarck, for example. Also, Grand Forks has no draw for qualified entrepreneurs to develop and expand the hospitality, arts, and entertainment sector. I believe all this to be true. Either that or, The Gang completely lacks vision and creativity and citizens need to demand they ride off into the sunset. They are failures who have damaged this community too much and it’s time for them to go away. “A rising tide raises all ships”? Nope, not here. They represent an era of wanting their piece of the pie first. A philosophy that has choked the development of Grand Forks/East Grand Forks.

  • ec99

    I am aware of urban migration trends. GF has moved south, to open land. That is inevitable. My point is that what little the north did have, especially the parade, was taken away, by people who want downtown to be important. Yet no one of the decision makers objects to the noise we have to put up with every Friday night over the summer because of the races. Because they all live in the south end. It may be hyperbolic, and I admit that, but the north end is being ghettoized.

  • sayanything-43

    There’s already reasons to think that it’s a crummy study as I’ve pointed out.

    What I meant was that the Alerus Gang hired him hoping he’d produce a glowing report. I have no reason to think that he took the job under that condition.

    So sure, I’ll look at the report when it’s released, and maybe he’ll explain his statement that this one night concert was a bigger deal for Grand Forks than the 10 day International World Junior Championship that sold roughly the same number of tickets day after day.

  • sayanything-2

    Got Toot’s comment above from 6 days ago, too. Could this be something buggy in Outlook?

  • ec99

    He need to work on the beard.

  • billy

    When we go to concerts at the Alerus, we buy our beer in Carrington and drink it on the way. No money spent at all in Grand Forks unless I buy a pack of cigarettes before fueling up for the drive home. That’s the additional wealth created for Grand Forks.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Not only that the economic impact has to be reduced by the $850,000 plus
    that LEFT the town as a result of the concert.

    And many if not most of the attendees were UND students.

  • sayanything-287

    Whistler, since Rob won’t tell us how to get our avatar back on SAB or how to add block quotes, bold type, italics or underline, can you please tell me how and where to get those answers?

  • ec99

    But that is the point. He released a figure and all the data were not in. It’s almost as though he had arrived at a figure to publish, whether the true results bore that out or not.

  • 008

    The, ever continuing, keep it on the front page Alerus articles- [This is borderline to defamation of David Flynn on your part.] Nothing new there. Similar to earlier how the Herald is “withholding” info from the public. Just please prove to us they have the info to provide. Don’t tell me they should- tell me they do. Or, [Why Did We Have to Get the Britney Attendence and Box Office Numbers From a Fan Site?]- we didn’t ‘have’ to, in fact I think the numbers you provided from that site weren’t the same ones released. Close, yes, the same, no. If they had released numbers and then had to revise them by .10 or 100 you would have jumped down someones throat…so, I place no blame if they tried to get accurate numbers before producing them. The sad thing, and I think what a previous poster may have tried to point out, is that you have a legit argument and something that needs to be dealt with. The unfortunate thing is that each new post screams National Enquirer as you spin/say anything to keep the chatter going.
    I know what to expect from posting this—but I agree the Alerus needs to change, however, spreading half truths and injecting rumors won’t fix anything.

  • ec99

    It’s ironic that his specialty appears to be financial crises.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I stand corrected I guess.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Are you saying the report isn’t glowing or isn’t being paid for?

    The last report wasn’t worth a darned and there are apparent serious
    flaws with this one already.

  • sayanything-43

    We’re just tired of being lied to over and over again.

  • sayanything-43

    Right, what is the number and how did he get it. We’re paying for this study we should see all of the underlying data.

  • ec99

    Of course it was. Like all questionable enterprises you generate positive propaganda for public consumption. That was the purpose of getting Kingsbury to originally come up with a $1=$7 multiplier, even though he took that number out of the air. If Flynn used it for his report, the real spending in GF was closer to $271.5K…which is a lot more credible. But much less impressive. Nor does it fit the needs of the Alerus.

  • sayanything-2

    Who the hell loses money on a Britney Spears concert?!?!?! If they can’t make money off the Slut Parade what the hell are they doing running a concert venue?

  • ec99

    Perhaps. But my point was that the change exemplifies the conversion of the north end into a non-entity. Even the short-term move of the fair to the Alerus reflects that. The south end has all the monied interests. That’s where you build a fancy new middle school. That’s where the school district’s new offices are. I’d like to see the reaction if it were proposed to build a new racetrack there. Even the northend Hugo’s stinks in comparison to the one on 32nd St.

  • sayanything-12

    Eric:

    Nevermind, Here is his very ‘professional’ website:

    Uh right.

    So we should judge him on his ability to design web pages.

    You people are being assholes.

  • Eric

    Nevermind, Here is his very ‘professional’ website:
    http://flynn.economics.home.att.net/

  • ec99

    Yes. Which is why I am pretty much done posting on the subject of the Alerus. Nothing has changed, nothing will change. I’m tired of wasting my breath.

  • Eric

    If anyone is interested in reaching David Flynn, just go to the UND Directory website and put in his name. It will come up with his contact info
    http://www2.und.edu/dept/ITSS/online_directory/staff.php

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I’m not so worried that you smoked 2 million dollars of cigs. But I do worry that you went to the Brit concert. Shows a bit of weakness of character.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Saying he could be related to you is probably the meanest thing anyone ever
    said.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    No reason to make it personal. I’m not letting him get away with a crappy
    study, but it’s strictly business sonny.

  • sayanything-43

    My point was that the motivation of the Alerus Gang was to get someone to write a report to make them look less bad.

  • ec99

    That, of course, calls into question the whole objectivity of the author and his study. My suspicion is that he was of a mindset to go in and blow this whole impact thing out of proportion. Whether he believed that was what he was being paid to do, or he did it on his own volition. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that he is attempting to delude the citizens of GF into believing that the Alerus is a boon to the city, instead of an insatiable parasite.

  • sayanything-43

    If I could get mine working right I’d sure be happy to help you.

    I’m perplexed.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    OR designing his survey to consider residents of East Grand Forks (just over
    the river) AND college students living here but residents of other towns as
    people that aren’t from our community. That way he can count them as only
    coming her for the Britney Spears concert and all money spent is new money.

    He even commented that he was surprised that hotel spending was lower than
    expected. Well duh.

  • sayanything-12

    Whistler: “The UND economists was paid to produce a glowing report of the Alerus and events held there. How much we don’t know.”

    This is over the top, IMO.

    You have proof that they were “paid to produce” glowing reports? Or paid to produce reports?

    This is borderline to defamation of David Flynn on your part.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    The information the Herald was withholding from us was the fact that this is
    a paid study commissioned by the Alerus. Since we have no way to evaluate
    the study on the merits (where is the study) we could at least know there’s
    a conflict of interest.

    Regarding the attendance and ticket sale thing. The Alerus knew that
    information by the time the concert was over. There would have been no need
    to revise those numbers.

  • sayanything-2

    Guess that is kinda Toot’s point all along, the place was simply not needed to begin with.

    I am just a bit gobsmacked that they can’t make their nut. As you point out, it is Grand Forks, their operating costs have got to be low as compared to similar sized venues in other regions.

    Something is very seriously bent in all this. Damned well time for NDBCI to roll in there and find out what the hell is going on.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Why have the Mr. Potatoe (sic) Head Parade on Campus. I mean it’s only a college event.

    Better to have it go through the souless buildings downtown.

  • Anon

    The economic impact…that was me. I smoked $1.9M of cigarettes.
    I’m such a moron, and unhealthy moron.

  • sayanything-12

    Rob:

    Trust me carrick…we’ve been following this for a long time and there’s no way there was $1.9 million in economic impact.

    If this is true, you should have no problem proving it. But even then there’s no reason to impugn motives.

    All I am saying.

  • sayanything-2

    Hell, just from what is available there is clearly criminal activity involved here, and anyone making any attempt to hide it or even distract from it is as culpable as the ones stealing the money.

    You lay down with dogs you get up with fleas.

  • ec99

    In NYC, that’s the cost of a pack.

  • Christine

    “The good news is that 13,019 fans attended the concert, and some fair share of them spent money in town. In fact, the fans are estimated to have spent at least $1.9 million, said UND economist David Flynn.”

    1,900,000/13,019 = $145.94 per person that attended was spent in town. In order to count this as economic impact we have to assume that this $145.94 was spent as a direct result of Britney and would not have been spent in town otherwise.

    Draw your own conclusions.

  • sayanything-12

    The Whistler:

    No reason to make it personal

    I agree.

    It’s one thing to joke about his beard, and especially to joke about people like The Whistler who can’t grow beards.

    The other stuff is rather petty. It may well be a crappy report, but it also may well be he was misquoted by the press. If you’re going to attack an individuals work, it’s ethical to contact him (his email is public) and give him a chance to explain himself before launching attacks based on second hand information.

    It’s not appropriate to insinuate he’s unethical or somehow sloppy because the report seems at odds with your expectations.

    Just because you don’t like the outcome doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Did you get a chance to fill out a survey Billy? Because if not the paid for study would assume you were spending tons of money in town just like all of the other out of towners.

  • Anon

    Regarding the ticket gross, c’mon, this is 2009. You walk into The Alerus, they scan your ticket. The Alerus’ software combined with Ticketmaster reports can instantaneously reveal the gross sales, how many of those individuals actually attended, and how many did not. Playing hanky-panky with the truth to conspire with a paid for economic impact study, and a letter writing campaign to The Herald is unacceptable. In the case of a publicly-owned facility, it’s VERY unacceptable. The Alerus Gang is feeding the critics with THEIR actions, I’m sure the vast majority of citizens would agree. The reaction by the gang to call legit critics “morons” is a sad, sad, situation. When the public begins to see repercussions for these actions, public opinion will turn to the positive for The Alerus. The reality is, The Alerus Gang are just digging deeper, and deeper.

  • ec99

    As usual, an excellent thumbnail sketch of the situation, Anon. In a way, those of us here during the campaign for the Alerus intuitively knew it would be a disaster. What we didn’t know was that vested interests in the place would so pollute the process; that the measure would keep coming up on ballots until we gave up protesting. Nor could we have realized that post-approval would result in the enormous financial scandal which passes for economic impact.

    As for the north end, I live there, and have seen it become the poor relative. We get to enjoy the noise of the races, that’s it. The Potato Bowl parade used to go down University Ave. The movers and shakers, anxious to make downtown a real place, changed that. So, you stand on sidewalk to watch, instead of sitting on a grassy berm. Of course, the Herald favored that too.

    As with many towns this size, GF is run by an oligarchy of a few, whose personal interests overwhelm the good of the whole community. The Herald is the mouthpiece of those interests. They wanted an events center, a dog park, a wellness center, and they wanted the citizens of GF to pay for them. They are on all the boards, councils, and commissions, everyone knows their names and how they have interlocking relationships. I’m tempted to move to Thompson.

  • sayanything-2

    Carrick? We have had this discussion before. Pollsters/statisticians whatnot are paid to produce results. The results they are paid to produce are what they present to their employer. Period. Otherwise they starve.

    They want real people to believe any of their crap? Then they have to prove all of us real people that they are NOT lying assholes.

    So far? They are lying assholes. They produce the results they are PAID to produce. No “science” involved.

  • sayanything-43

    That and making wild claims about being bigger than the World Junior Tournament.

    I mean that’s just plain silly.

  • sayanything-2

    Sorry, kids. This “Flynn” asshole sounds like a Democrat, another lying piece of crap. Prove me wrong. I double dawg dare you!

  • ec99

    Back to the Dennis editorial. I have read his work since he came to the Herald. And I am convinced that he could never get a job as an editorial writer with any legitimate newspaper. His approach is to have an opinion, include references which support that opinion, and ignore the other side. He never does any research into the question. This has resulted in such stands as telling UND to eliminate all its Liberal Arts departments, because they are a “luxury.” Now, hate or love Liberal Arts, they are the basis of the university tradition: English, History, Foreign Languages, Religion and Philosophy. They teach students how to think, write, and establish historical contexts. But to Dennis, they do not fit the Herald’s view that universities should be training workers for ND employers, and are to be the engine of economic development.

    As regards this specific editorial, it is in keeping with the Herald’s consistent whoring for the Alerus. In the same way it has whored for other interests of the GF oligarchy. Dennis conveniently ignores the economic facts and accepts the economic myths. But this is his modus operandi.

    He used to have a blog where he would post his editorials. He shut it down. I suspect because he got tired of me criticizing him.

  • ec99

    Perhaps there was no quid pro quo, or an explicit one anyway. But Flynn was already talking positive results the day after the concert. Further, he releases his figure of $1.9 million while he is e-mailing out questionaires. Which is to say, his figures are based on partial data. This is supposed to be a “respected” economist. My view is he will eventually rue the day he hooked up with the Alerus cabal.

  • sayanything-12

    Whistler “Are you saying the report isn’t glowing or isn’t being paid for?”

    You obviously intended for us to connect the dots that the report is glowing because he was paid to make the report. There are plenty of examples where people are paid to write reports, where the report is very damaging to the company that contracted for them.

    What you did by making this statement was to impugn on his character as a researcher, which is defamatory because of the nonexistent evidence you have for it. That is defamatory and you owe him an apology for that.

    Do a proper vetting of his report, if you find problems with them, expose them. Don’t dismiss them because either you don’t like the result or because you think they can’t be trusted because they were obtained via funding.

  • sayanything-43

    I will stipulate that there is no quid pro quo to specifically produce a report this way. On the other hand the Alerus Gang commissioned this study to produce a report to cover their butts.

    And the study looks to be very poorly done from what anyone can tell.

    Draw your own conclusions.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I think any town is going to see most of their commerce concentrated in one
    area, and that area is going to tend to migrate over time. In Minot the
    south part of town is growing but the north end really isn’t. Hard to say
    why, but it is a snowballing effect. The mall has been on the south side of
    town for a long time. Now Wal-Mart built its super center there. Menards
    is there. Each new business that opens on the south end of town pulls other
    businesses in, it seems.
    But in Minot this all seems to be happening (at least to my knowledge)
    because of choice. Not some self-appointed planners manipulating the
    outcome.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I’m not sure there is a way to hold a high profile concert like spears in grand forks. I don’t think the market is big enough to produce enough revenue to pay her performance fees. Only public subsidy makes it possible.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Looking at that picture…he looks like he could be related to me.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Carrick, you need to admit that his claim of a big economic impact number before he was even done with his surveys smacks of him researching to get a desired result.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    We can prove it when they release the data.

    And there is certainly plenty of reason to question his motives.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Plus don’t forget the roughly 8 million annually the facility costs the taxpayers.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Trust me carrick…we’ve been following this for a long time and there’s no way there was $1.9 million in economic impact.

    Whistler is rightfully calling this guy to the carpet.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    You people are being assholes.

    I was just trying to say nice things about his beard…

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I am aware of urban migration trends. GF has moved south, to
    open land. That is inevitable. My point is that what little the north did
    have, especially the parade, was taken away, by people who want downtown to
    be important.

    Oh I don’t disagree at all. I never understood why so many (usually of the
    big government liberal persuasion) get so drippy about everything being down
    town.

    Down towns usually suck. They’re crowded. Parking sucks. Businesses are
    cramped.

    Why wouldn’t you want your business or whatever to be in an accessible,
    non-crowded area?

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Not to condone drinking and driving but I suspect billys experience is pretty typical for most Alerus event attendees.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Yeah. It takes a real man to grow a good one.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Neiman, I posted some instructions on the front page I hope you’ll find helpful. If you continue to have problems comment there and I’ll do what I can to help.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I agree. Lots of reasons to be dismissive of Flynn’s study but no evidence of explicit quid pro quo outside of a conflict of interest.

  • spartacus

    Neiman, Check your mail

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I think that’s fair.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    I’d say that there is plenty of reason to be suspicious of Flynn’s report,
    both in that his conclusions don’t seem to be supported by reality and his
    obvious conflict of interest.
    But I do think that Carrick’s criticism about stating Flynn as having been
    paid to produce certain results as fact is well made. We can suspect that.
    We don’t know it as fact.

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