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Thursday, August 31, 2006

The Truly Great Plains

Here's an interesting read from today's Wall Street Journal:

Update from the Whistler: Here's a link to the story that doesn't require a subscritpion.



BISMARCK, N.D. -- At a time when the much-celebrated coasts creak from rising interest rates, faltering income levels and soaring energy prices, this windswept, energy-rich city of 57,000 on the western edge of the Dakota plains is experiencing the best of times. Cities like this one out in the far-off hinterland -- Iowa City, Sioux Falls, Fargo, Grand Forks, Rapid City -- now are enjoying job growth rates that, if they don't rival Las Vegas, certainly put to shame those of most major metropolitan areas. Unemployment is negligible and wages are rising across virtually all job categories.

Over the past five years, the fastest growth in per capita income has taken place in energy-rich Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico and West Virginia, while highly urbanized places like California, New York, Michigan and Illinois gather dust at the bottom of the pack. Tax revenues in these once hard-pressed states are also soaring; North Dakota's surplus is now estimated at $527 million, representing more than a quarter of the state's $2 billion annual budget.

Behind the good times are numerous factors, such as an Internet-enabled shift of technology and business service firms into the region, and a growing migration of downshifting boomers and young families.


Boom times have indeed reached North Dakota. Of course, if you listen to Democrats here in the state you'd think we're all just struggling to get by. Howard Dean visited the state's Democrats recently (all except for the state's top three Democrats who avoided him like the plague) and then went on Meet The Press and told the nation that "those folks need help." "You should see what's going on in North Dakota," he said. "[P]eople [are] losing their health care."

Clearly, things are not as bleak as Howard Dean would have you believe. But then, with things in North Dakota going so well under Republicans the only way state Democrats can get themselves elected is by trying to get citizens to buy into the idea that things are worse than they really are. It's pretty typical of liberal politics. What North Dakota voters need to ask themselves is who they're going to believe: The folks trying to paint a bleak picture to get themselves elected or the folks currently in charge who seem to be doing a pretty good job?

Also, this from the article was knee-slappingly hilarious:

But perhaps the most dramatic change has come from an upsurge of energy prices that is turning places like North Dakota into a Nordic Abu Dhabi.

"We're on the verge of a gold rush driven by energy," crows Bob Valeu, state coordinator for North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan. Mr. Valeu and other leaders here in both political parties see their state as a growing bastion of energy production for the U.S. Already North Dakota is among the major exporters of energy to the rest of the country, exporting roughly three-fourths of its 4,000 megawatts of electricity.


Funny how Dorgan trumpets the resurgence of North Dakota's energy industry (thanks to high gas prices which have prompted the oil industry to invest money in domestic oil production) while simultaneously supporting a "windfall profits tax" that would deny the oil industry the revenues they're using to invest in North Dakota. It's clear that Dorgan either doesn't understand basic economics or doesn't really have this state's best interests at heart.

What Dorgan (and a lot of people in North Dakota) fail to realize is that it is North Dakota's fossil fuels - rather than the alternative fuel energy which is propped up by nothing more than tax dollars - that is driving this state's success:

Huge deposits of lignite coal, estimated at 35 billion tons, remain a primary source of electrical generation and synthetic natural gas. This makes the cost of energy half as expensive or less than in New York or California. Oil, as well, is booming. Five years ago, with oil prices low, notes Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, there were virtually no rigs operating in the state's Williston Basin. Today his members, consisting of around 140 oil and gas firms of all sizes, are on a hiring spree. They've added 1,500 new jobs -- most paying $23 an hour and up -- and have still another 200 openings to fill.

This spike in employment could just be the beginning if the largely untapped Bakken oil formation proves to have the reserves, upwards of 200 and 300 billion barrels of crude, that some geologists expect. Development of the Bakken could turn western North Dakota, as well as parts of Montana and Canada, into one of the world's largest new energy centers. Even without it, things are busy as can be in places like Dickinson, located in Stark County, population 25,000, not far from rugged Badlands country. The county now has over 800 job openings, not all of them energy-related. Unemployment barely exists -- under 3% -- notes Gaylon Baker, a director of the Stark County Development Corporation. "Anyone who wants to show up for work around here," he told me, "has a job."


I'd like to post more from this article as it is a fantastic run-down of all the things that are going right for North Dakota, but I don't want to run afoul of fair use statutes. If you're a Wall Street Journanl subscriber though be sure to read the whole thing.

As I said above, we're in boom times for North Dakota...but we should also remember to be cautious. The state has a massive budget surplus, but now is not the time for heavy spending nor is it the time for new regulations and bureaucracy. Now is the time for pro-growth policies so that we can keep this boom alive. North Dakota needs to cut taxes and cut regulations that might inhibit new businesses and industries from moving into the state. We also need to work with the energy industry to ensure that our state is doing what it can to be open to new energy projects (and along with those projects more jobs for North Dakotans).

I can only hope that our state's political leaders get this.

Comments

Avatar for FreeRepublicans.com

So outside of oil, retail, and fast food - where is the growth?

I really want to know.

FreeRepublicans.com on August 31, 2006 at 07:37 am
Rob
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All jobs are good jobs, Free.  If you don’t get that ND is in boom times you’re clueless.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on August 31, 2006 at 07:44 am
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Off the top of my head… the ethanol industry.

brenarlo on August 31, 2006 at 07:45 am
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"All right… all right… but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order… what have the Romans done for us?

Xerxes: Brought peace!”

electnixon on August 31, 2006 at 08:03 am
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All jobs are good jobs, Free. If you don’t get that ND is in boom times you’re clueless.

Not everyone agrees with that.  And I’ve been assigned to a 3rd candidate that doesn’t agree with that piss-poor attitude either.

FreeRepublicans.com on August 31, 2006 at 08:11 am
Avatar for aNONOMISLY

All jobs are good jobs, Free. If you don’t get that ND is in boom times you’re clueless.

the sage thing to do is to encentivize the oil industry until it matures to or close to its potential.

After that use those advantages (higher royalties to the state, lower gas prices, etc.) to lower taxes and incentivize specific high value added service sector industries. ..Dubai in the UAE has done it very well.

The reason behind this is to turning from a economy highly dependent and based on natural/raw materials (agriculture, oil) to one highly base on human capital, highly dependent on a educated populace.  ..I gots great economic skill, lol. what do you guys think?

more about Dubai (the Arabs that know how to do things), the fastest growing city on earth who is economy is no longer solely dependant on the oil industry

aNONOMISLY on August 31, 2006 at 08:39 am

aNON: Reinvestment by free people making free choices is the secret of maximum prosperity.  Buying and selling stuff is the effect, not the cause.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on August 31, 2006 at 08:42 am
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aNON: Reinvestment by free people making free choices is the secret of maximum prosperity. Buying and selling stuff is the effect, not the cause.

Free people making free choice have the free right to take their money to the beach.

e.g. US corporations are very adept going to the third word and developing their mineral/raw material industries.  They than bring a great chunck of those goodies (profits) and reinvest them here in the US.  Once all the minerals/natural resources are exploited those countries regress back to an economy resembling ‘square one,’ where they were at before..

aNONOMISLY on August 31, 2006 at 09:06 am

aNON: Your Marxist analysis leaves out one important fact: Our purchasing of the raw materials(often that country’s only valuable resource besides cheap labor) results in a massive influx of capital into that country during our time there.  A great example of this principle is Japan, which rose from the ashes of WWII to become a leading industrial nation by selling only one resource in the beginning: cheap labor and low-cost manufacturing.  Once again, re-investment is the key to generating maximum prosperity.  It is the socialist or communist dictatorships in poor countries that keep them poor by misallocating resources, not the countries who bring in the capital.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on August 31, 2006 at 09:13 am

I don’t subscribe to the Online WSJ.  I did read this in the dead tree edition.

It was full of holes and bull poop. 

Written by a guy who obviously read all the C of C stuff the state puts out.

I’m not impressed. 

Here’s what is true.  Oil is being pumped.
Not True that has nothing to do with Fargo.
True people have jobs in the oil field.
NOT TRUE that matters little to anyone else.

And Doug Burgum did not FOUND Great Plains Software.  I knew the founders.  They sold it to Doug.  Doug built it up but he didn’t found it.

And so much else of the story is just PAP. 

I lived thru a couple boom and busts of the oil field.  Enjoy this one.  It may not last.

It masks the real outmigration and employment probems of North Dakota.  That is sad.  Politicians and economic development types will break the right arm trying to congratualte each other.

Here’s one other truth unfortunate as it is.  Oil isn’t going to hold here. It will drop.  15-20 bucks.  In real money GOLD that will be back near where it was 4 years ago before the boom started.

Then what.  New conferences on what do we do about ND.  Sorry to be so negative but this oil boom is a mixed blessing and unequal in it’s impact.  Drive up and down 281 and see if there is any real benifit.

There must be long range solutions, Oil ain’t it.

Read this and Read this from an oldtimer who’s seen this before. 

I won’t even quote Santyana.

Last Look at this:

http://thumbsnap.com/v/tAloUYhK.jpg

This was this week in Ohio. 

It’ll be $2 in the fall and then they’ll start capping the oil wells.


the AVATAR
Old Tigers are more dangerous when they believe this could be their last hunt.

From , “The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen”
Old tigers, sensing the end,
they’re at their most fierce. 
And they go down fighting.

Gene on August 31, 2006 at 11:30 am
Avatar for The Whistler

I think the break-even on ND oil is in the 30’s.  Personally I don’t think it’s going to drop that low.  World wide demand is growing.

I would also hope the the US for national security reasons (not economic) finds a way to fully develop our domestic energy sources.

The Whistler on August 31, 2006 at 11:46 am
Avatar for aNONOMISLY

And so much else of the story is just PAP.

I lived thru a couple boom and busts of the oil field. Enjoy this one. It may not last.

It masks the real outmigration and employment probems of North Dakota. That is sad. Politicians and economic development types will break the right arm trying to congratualte each other.

..

Then what. New conferences on what do we do about ND. Sorry to be so negative but this oil boom is a mixed blessing and unequal in it’s impact. Drive up and down 281 and see if there is any real benifit.

There must be long range solutions, Oil ain’t it.

Read this and Read this from an oldtimer who’s seen this before.
.

Hence my advice: Take the royalty and develop a high value added, capital intensive new economy. An economy more focus on the service industry and human capital than on agriculture and oil.

..as Dubai has done.

aNONOMISLY on August 31, 2006 at 12:02 pm
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Hence my advice: Take the royalty and develop a high value added, capital intensive new economy. An economy more focus on the service industry and human capital than on agriculture and oil.

..as Dubai has done.

Ah there was a need for the services offered by Dubai in the Middle East. 

As to the rest, surely you don’t expect central planning to create a “new economy” in North Dakota.  (Which isn’t doing that badly of course).

The Whistler on August 31, 2006 at 12:08 pm
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Ah there was a need for the services offered by Dubai in the Middle East.

This is USA, the largest economy in the world

its actually very pro-business:

along with the ND business communities and universities do some great market research to see those highly attractive high value added market sector take advantage of the oil royalties and incentivize them.

Its sort-of what North Carolina did with great success when it realized its tobacco industry was going down the drain, as well as its textile and manufacturing (do to outsourcing)

aNONOMISLY on August 31, 2006 at 12:54 pm
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It aint “Central Planning.” Its stratigic incentives to atract Capital Ventures entrepeneurial private investors and other private investors.

aNONOMISLY on August 31, 2006 at 12:58 pm
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This is USA, the largest economy in the world

its actually very pro-business:

So it’s already has those services so it’s hard to break into.

It aint “Central Planning.” Its stratigic incentives to atract Capital Ventures entrepeneurial private investors and other private investors.

Governments don’t create wealth.

The Whistler on August 31, 2006 at 01:02 pm
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It’ll be interesting to see what is going on in my home town, this week in lovely southwestern North Dakota.

Puzzlefeet on August 31, 2006 at 05:51 pm
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Bargin-basement tax rates bring business in.  That said, the targeting we need to do is of high paying, high skill jobs so that all these college educated people, like myself, can actually get a job in the state doing something somewhat related to what we went into debt for.

FreeRepublicans.com on August 31, 2006 at 05:56 pm
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I would agree that we need those kind of jobs, freep.  However I doubt that government is going to be able to create them.

They should be coming here because we are a great source of high quality workers.

The Whistler on August 31, 2006 at 06:07 pm
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I would agree that we need those kind of jobs, freep. However I doubt that government is going to be able to create them.

Well, I don’t know what kind of incentives are bringing in all the retail stores, but we should be providing MORE incentives for higher paying jobs.

FreeRepublicans.com on August 31, 2006 at 06:08 pm
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A bunch of low wage jobs doesn’t create high wage jobs.  It just doesn’t happen that way.

Puzzlefeet on August 31, 2006 at 06:12 pm
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It’s pretty obvious that the retail giants want to enter all the markets they can profit in.  They also don’t want to leave a market to a competitor so that they can get rich there.

Different thing than attracting (or growing) a primary sector employer.

The Whistler on August 31, 2006 at 06:13 pm
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A bunch of low wage jobs doesn’t create high wage jobs. It just doesn’t happen that way.

I know.

But if we coax good paying jobs, the low paying service jobs will follow those on their own.

FreeRepublicans.com on August 31, 2006 at 06:14 pm
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A bunch of low wage jobs doesn’t create high wage jobs. It just doesn’t happen that way.

Yes, it does.

Supply and demand.  I understand why unions would think the only way to raise wages is through bargaining the passage of laws...because that way their existence is justified.

We shouldn’t care what kind of jobs are created.  If we just create demand for labor wages will adjust accordingly.

It’s called the “free market,” though I know that’s a dirty word to some.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on August 31, 2006 at 06:26 pm
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Rob,

Your misunderstand the arguement.

The question isn’t one of supply and demand increasing wages across the board; the question is how do we create more jobs at the middle and top of the spectrum while retaining enough service jobs at the bottom to service those who are making the hire wages.

By enacting Pro-Growth policies that create more top end jobs, that extra pay will TRICKLE DOWN to the low paying jobs the way the free market intended.

We don’t have Pro-Growth policies as far as I am concerned.  We need more $60k-100k/year jobs, THAT will bring the 20k jobs up to 30k naturally.

FreeRepublicans.com on August 31, 2006 at 06:32 pm
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The question isn’t one of supply and demand increasing wages across the board; the question is how do we create more jobs at the middle and top of the spectrum while retaining enough service jobs at the bottom to service those who are making the hire wages.

This statement indicates that you clearly don’t understand the principles of supply and demand.

Low-skill workers have to have managers.  Managers and workers have to have nice buildings to work in and nice equipment to use, all made by architects and engineers and designers and construction workers.  Low-skill retail workers also have to have products to sell, which means that workers elsewhere have to make those products.  It also means that a whole distribution stream has to be manned with truck drivers, dispatchers, vehicle repairmen, etc.

Seeing how this works yet or are you going to continue your silly notions about top-down solutions to labor issues?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on August 31, 2006 at 06:53 pm
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Free, you couldn’t be more wrong.  Bargain basement tax rates will not bring high wage jobs to the state.  The tax structure of ND is not the problem with businesses coming to ND. Ask any economic developer in the state.  Business comes to a state where the can get high quality workforce that is revolving, meaning available.  They also need a strong, reliable, reasonable transportion system.  But the prime reason is not the tax structure. Now understand that a high tax structure will keep a business out of ND but our tax structure is not the prohibiting factor.

Creating the research corridor and the Centers of Excellence is following the Richard Florida model of economic development.

Rob, bringing low wage jobs won’t create high wage jobs.  Leaving labor unions out of the discussion for now, how does bringing service sector jobs which have low levels of innovation and equally low levels of economic growth move to high wage jobs.  I don’t believe it works that way.

And while employment is important the youth of our state are also leaving for the creativity class of the cities such as Denver and Minneapolis. 

The creation of the research corridor by Dorgan, Conrad and Pomeroy with Hoeven and the college presidents on board and very supportive along with Hoeven’s creation of Centers of Excellence is of much greater importance in economic development than “bargain basement taxes.”

Most advanced businesses have no problem paying reasonable taxes if there is a return on the investment.  Like a strong education system that provides highly educated workers for their business, an infrastructure system that they can get their products to market.

Richard Florida in his terrific book “The Rise of the Creative Class” talks about the Three Ts: Talent Technology and Tolerance. (I’ve written about this a while back) Having a world class higher education system is the key to a strong economy.  According to Florida:  “Universities are centers for cutting edge research in fields from software to biotechnology andimportant sources of new technologies and spin off companies.” We see that happening at the technology park in Fargo in partnership with NDSU.  We see it in Grand Forks with the EERC.  “By attracting eminent researchers and scientists universities in turn attract graduate students generate spin-off companies and encourage other companies to locate nearby in a cycle of self-reinforcing growth.” (Florida)

Puzzlefeet on August 31, 2006 at 07:04 pm

Puzzle,

While you are on the way to collect that big Oil Royalty check from your SW ND properties remember good old NoDAK.

Despite the fact you are a liberal, I actually agree with you. I long ago began to pontificate on the problems in ND.  Part of what Rob says is true.  All employment is layered.  The struggle is that if you start to low the top layer still stinks.

That’s the manager of the Cenex that makes $27,000 per year and has 3 kids in the trailer at home in Langdon.  Not a living wage or a life.

There are options beaconing and being normal most will follow them.  They are not in Dakota North.

The inverse of the low wage job is also true.  A few high paying jobs exist, the employer has to become market sensitive to appeal to the wider US employee pool.  That translates to money.

What happens there is a bait and switch for depth.  Example, Bob moves from Pennsylvania to become CFO of Acme Research in Valley City. (this is a real situation, names changed).  He comes for $72M per year.  He works for 3 years and things get tough at Acme.  His kids like the area, his wife and Bob bought a nice house.  Bob is let go.  Economic cycles you know.  Bob looks for another Job in the Valley City Area.  His next best offer is $38,000.  There are no other jobs.  He ultimately sells the house at a loss, moves back to the outskirts of Philly and gets a job in the Mid 70s again.  Life goes on for Bob in Philly and w/o Bob in Valley City.  Creativity and ablility have left the state.

I call it bait and switch because there is a lack of depth in the North Dakota job market at higher salaries. 

When I was working and the early 70’s boom was on full tilt in ND my big paycheck could be easily replaced by 10 other companies waiting to hire me.  The old adage was, “don’t quit any job till you have something else already in hand”. 

Well, it didn’t keep.  By the early 80s things just collapsed.  It was like a tidal wave sweeping away thousands.  Oh we weren’t killed, we just dissaperard and reappeared elsewhere.  I was one who fled for much higher pay and much deeper opprotunity. 

North Dakota doesn’t need higher paying jobs, it needs better opprotunity, even for those wishing to go into busienss for themselves.

If we don’t get off farm subsidies, if we don’t begin to understand that the basic economic unit is people, if we don’t get the fact that innovation (not just high tech) is the key to our future as a state, we will get excited about selling our seed corn (natural resourses) in the ground (Oil).

We are like the arabs, we can live well for now, but the minute a viable substitute for oil hits the street and oil prices collapse we are going to stand there and bemoan the fact that when we had the resourses we didn’t diversify and expand our economies.

UAE is an anomoly.  They have and do. Tell me, other than retail, what is Kuwait’s biggest industry? 

You are looking in a mirror ND.  ND is Kuwait.

We must get the primary industry (Agriculture) off the reservation with the permanant government dole and get it innovating to use that good land for something other than collecting disaster payments from uncle sam.  ND is a welfare ghetto.

I wrote a “Book” on this a few years ago.  It still holds.  If you want to read it I posted it.  Warning, it’s long but those who have read it believe and accept it.

Re-Visioning Dakota

It was published and distributed to government officials in North Dakota (partuclarly Economic Development Types) who said “You say all the things we understand and believe, but we can’t say
or do any of these things, It’s not acceptable politically”. 

Fear of change and inertia based on Job security is the motivating force behind our political appointees in Bismarck who are trying to shepherd ND into economic prosperity.

North Dakota really needs a tidal wave to wash away attitudes that hold it back. 

This is a good forum to begin that discussion.


the AVATAR
Old Tigers are more dangerous when they believe this could be their last hunt.

From , “The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen”
Old tigers, sensing the end,
they’re at their most fierce. 
And they go down fighting.

Gene on September 1, 2006 at 06:23 am
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Its sort-of what North Carolina did with great success when it realized its tobacco industry was going down the drain, as well as its textile and manufacturing (do to outsourcing)
aNONOMISLY on August 31, 2006 at 3:54 PM

Did you know that North Dakota per capita income is 2.7% higher than North Carolina?

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 10:29 am
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Did you know that North Dakota per capita income is 2.7% higher than North Carolina?

..and in the area of the Research Triangle?

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 10:36 am

TW:

Did you know that North Dakota per capita income is 2.7% higher than North Carolina?

How much of that is the oil industry?

Carrick on September 1, 2006 at 10:37 am
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.and in the area of the Research Triangle?

Sounds like you’re cherry picking here.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 10:38 am
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How much of that is the oil industry?

It would depend on when the numbers are from.  The resurgent oil industry is something of a recent development.

Gene, I really hate it when people go around talking about “creating opportunity.” Government cannot create opportunity, it can only maintain an environment where opportunity can be created on its own.

I also hate how everyone gets down on small jobs.  You all want opportunity, but you complain about gas station jobs and such.  Well who do you think those gas stations are serving?  Whose merchandise do you think those gas stations are selling?

I think this constant belittling of real economic progress in North Dakota is just another branch off our fast food culture.  We want everything done now.  We’re not patient enough for an economy to create itself, so we think we’re going to create a bunch of CEO jobs and then expect everything to be ok.

That’s not how it works.

All jobs are good jobs, whether people like Puzzle or Gene want to admit that it’s true.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on September 1, 2006 at 10:47 am
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TW, let me put it to you this way:

North Carolina’s Research Triangle has probably created more jobs than there are in the ENTIRE state of NORTH DAKOTA.  AND I bet your the proportion/concentration of well-paying, professional grade quality jobs is greater in North Carolina’s Research Triangle than it is in the state of North Dakota. ..capice?

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 10:53 am
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Gene, that was a great, most excellent post.

I just about one hundred and ten percent agree with you.

when I have time I’ll write brainstorm some ideas together..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 10:57 am

All jobs are good jobs, whether people like Puzzle or Gene want to admit that it’s true.

Then slave labor was good.  Slaves had work, it didn’t pay much, but it was a job.

Or, in the sweatshops around the turn of the century for the equivellent of $10 a day today.  Job, not so good, but using your formula a good job.

It’s not true Rob.

And, by the way, I DON’T want government to create opprotunity.  They can’t.  I do want them to STOP inhibiting opprotunity by rewarding a lack thereof, (Farm Programs). 

I want government OUT OF THE WAY now.  Let the market move.  spend your money if you must and I wish you didn’t on building population.  Make it easy and effective for people to come here.

Population drives economics and growth, not the other way round.

But population responds to opprotunity.  Right now sadly, there is only OIL and some corn in another government giveaway (ethanol). 

Retail isn’t it either.  There must be value added to what we send away. 

If we are going to have oil wells, lets refine it on site, lets make oil products, lets make motor oil, let’s do what venezualea did, Citco. 

WE North Dakotans are too used to creating raw materials and sending it out of state for refinement.  This means an attitude change.  Remember Dakota Beer?  We should be doing that now.  Where are the innovators?  Where are the Melroes and Shaefers of today?

ND needs help and it’s been delayed by the illusion of high oil prices.


the AVATAR
Old Tigers are more dangerous when they believe this could be their last hunt.

From , “The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen”
Old tigers, sensing the end,
they’re at their most fierce. 
And they go down fighting.

Gene on September 1, 2006 at 11:03 am
Avatar for The Whistler

North Carolina’s Research Triangle has probably created more jobs than there are in the ENTIRE state of NORTH DAKOTA. AND I bet your the proportion/concentration of well-paying, professional grade quality jobs is greater in North Carolina’s Research Triangle than it is in the state of North Dakota. ..capice?

Golly even with all that North Dakota’s still ahead. 

Granted that North Carolina has done well, but that’s not necessarily the right thing for ND.  We have to do it our own way.  It’s also unlikely as hell that state government will spend us to prosperity. 

But as far as your basic premise, we are obviously doing something right.  However your just wrong to claim that you can compare a sliver of one state with an entirely different state.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 11:07 am
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Then slave labor was good. Slaves had work, it didn’t pay much, but it was a job.

Surely you can’t compare slavery with a job where the pay is agreed upon by both parties.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 11:11 am
Rob
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Then slave labor was good. Slaves had work, it didn’t pay much, but it was a job.

Or, in the sweatshops around the turn of the century for the equivellent of $10 a day today. Job, not so good, but using your formula a good job.

It’s not true Rob.

Let’s not be absurd.  I’m talking about paying jobs in a free economy and you know it.

And, by the way, I DON’T want government to create opprotunity. They can’t. I do want them to STOP inhibiting opprotunity by rewarding a lack thereof, (Farm Programs).

I want government OUT OF THE WAY now. Let the market move. spend your money if you must and I wish you didn’t on building population. Make it easy and effective for people to come here.

Population drives economics and growth, not the other way round.

Well fine, I agree with you as far as that goes.

I still don’t understand why everybody is upset about “bad jobs.” A $7.00/hour job may be a $15/hour job in a few years.

Who gets to decide what are good jobs and what are bad jobs?  And what’s to stop them from always deciding that the jobs at the low end of the market are bad jobs that need to be replaced with good jobs?

All this stuff needs to be left up th individuals.  People decide what they’re willing to accept for employment.  If we start meddling with those sort of free choices we’re going to get ourselves in trouble.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on September 1, 2006 at 11:15 am
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Golly even with all that North Dakota’s still ahead.

..However your just wrong to claim that you can compare a sliver of one state with an entirely different state.

Coming to that conclusion from this is almost as stupid and simple minded as claiming that Norway is a better country than the UNITED STATES.

hint, hint: The population of NORTH Carolina is about SIXTEEN TIMES that of North Dakota.

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 11:16 am
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Gene, I’m glad you’ve mentioned Richard Florida. ..Alburquerque, New Mexico has followed a type of his prescription to GREAT success..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 11:19 am
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hint, hint: The population of NORTH Carolina is about SIXTEEN TIMES that of North Dakota.

So?

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 11:24 am

Gene: “Population drives economics and growth, not the other way round.”

Not necessarily true.  Demand creates supply, and the demand from any given population creates the supply that suits the makeup of that population.  That is why free enterprise does better with an upwardly mobile population than one with little training and a low skill level.  Increasing the influx of low-skill, low education people from socialist countries is a recipe for stagnation, not prosperity.  The social cost to try to bring them up to the level of the existing population is considerable, and is accompanied by the very real danger that they may end up being a dependent population rather than a productive one.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 11:26 am

Gene: Another aspect: Historically, as any population increases its education level and prosperity level, its birthrate goes down.  So prosperity and population level are inversely related, it seems.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 11:30 am
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rob, good points.

TW, dude you seem clueless, lol

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 11:38 am
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..you really do..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 11:40 am

Actually R108, you got me on that.  I may a tiny bit simplistic here. A malady with me.  We fundamentalists are like that sometimes.

Rob,
I was using absurdity to make a point of course.  But I am concerned that well educated people who can read Monster.com are being dragged (or is it Drug) Drig Drag Drug who can conjugate that?)) out of ND by the thousands because OPPROTUNITY doesn’t exist.

Opprotunity to make a decent living, have room for growth (advancement), maybe own your own productive profitable busienss, and live life with options. 

It’s a lack of those things that caused me and tens of thousands of others to flee in the grand exoudous of the 80’s from ND. 

My concern along R108’s line is what was left behind?  Best and brighteste or otherwise.  I don’t feel smarter but look who jumps when things offer opprotunity.  Not the guy making $9.50 at the C-Store. 

Education (not public schools) and opprotunity suitable to attact and keep our young bright kids.

I have one son in ND and one in MA.  Both NDSU grads. The one in Boston wouldn’t consider coming back to ND. Is he brighter than my ND son?  I don’t think he is or isn’t.  But, my Boston son certainly doesn’t have ND even on the radar screen for opprotunity.  WHY?

By the way, I can’t do what I do from ND.  So, if I want to eat and live I stay in IL.  That’s an opprotunity driven decision.

And that’s OK with me.


the AVATAR
Old Tigers are more dangerous when they believe this could be their last hunt.

From , “The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen”
Old tigers, sensing the end,
they’re at their most fierce. 
And they go down fighting.

Gene on September 1, 2006 at 11:48 am
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exactly, Gene.  Its not that low paying jobs are a bad thing. 

Its that a brain drain is a bad thing..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 11:52 am
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...to some extent, its like the dominoe theory too..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 11:53 am

Gene: Cool.  When it comes to free enterprise economics, I’m a fundamentalist myself.

As far as the supply/demand relationship in regard to opportunity in ND, that is probably more about the social and political structure than anything else.  In a freer market, ND might attract a lot of businesses(computer type) who don’t require a certain location, but instead, can locate wherever the cost is lowest.  This is the self-adjusting function of the free enterprise system.  As usual, only the govt, through taxation and regulation, can interfere with that natural process of the market.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 11:55 am

aNON: In our free enterprise system, such migration of capital and resources is the key to our success.  If the govt were to be able to keep people from moving out of ND, then we would all be poorer.  We have the individual independence to move to wherever our value is the highest, and conditions in ND must not be in that category.  One would think that investigating why that is so would be first priority, but no.  We end up blaming the economic system, rather than fixing the social and political causes for the “exodus”.  It might be something as simple as clinging to an agrarian lifestyle that is no longer as large a factor in the overall economy as it once was.  Through govt bribes(subsidies), ND might be supporting a less productive economic base, thus leading to this “brain drain”.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 12:04 pm
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TW, dude you seem clueless, lol
aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 2:38 PM

There you go again projecting.  Your point of comparing the a small sliver of North Carolina to the state as a whole is frankly stupid.

I’ll try to explain it to you in different terms.  Please try to think and understand.

It would be every bit as erroneuos to compare the graduates of UND Medical school with all of the graduates of Duke.  I could probably make a statement that UND Medical grads make much more than the average Duke grad.  However if we compare the total alumni populations it’s quite likely that Duke students earn a lot more than UND grads.

I find it troubling though that people consider the brain drain to be such a troubling thing for them.  In my opinion the first priority of our education primary and secondary is to prepare our students to succeed.  They are doing that. 

I started to skim over Gene’s book that he did.  I haven’t covered his conclusions but I did like his point about the only thing that matters is human capital.  I think that at some point businesses will be coming here to utilize our great folks.

Finally I think we overstate the problem too much.  Every state has entry level jobs.  I would imagine that our proportion of those jobs is now higher than it is in other states we consider more successful.  In fact anecdotal evidence only our retail jobs start at a higher pay level than some places we might consider real successful.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 12:38 pm
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If the govt were to be able to keep people from moving out of ND, then we would all be poorer.

that would be if they do so forcefully.

I did an interesting research study on the after affect of communism.  The Soviet union used to move people to inhospitable places, Siberai etc.
and created artificial economies to sustain them there (farm subsidies ring a bell?) As the Russian government has moved away from commuism and into capitalism, those artificial economies collapsed.  Today those people, because of the desolate condition and lack of opportunities, have one of the greatest incedence of psychological abnormalities (chronic adiction to drug, alcahol, cigarette, etc.) in the world.
A great amount is heavily dependent on the largess (social welfare, Social Sicurity, etc) of the government (e.g much as in Puerto Rico is dependent on the largess of the US GOVERNMENT). It is estimated that in some areas, it would be more cost effective for the government if entire towns move (does farms subsidies ring a bell?)

..but that isn’t what I’m suggesting for ND

We have the individual independence to move to wherever our value is the highest, and conditions in ND must not be in that category.

My suggestions are for the ND government to be proactive in creating those conditions, as oppose to a laissez-faire approach

One would think that investigating why that is so would be first priority, but no. We end up blaming the economic system, rather than fixing the social and political causes for the “exodus”.

It might be something as simple as clinging to an agrarian lifestyle that is no longer as large a factor in the overall economy as it once was. Through govt bribes(subsidies), ND might be supporting a less productive economic base, thus leading to this “brain drain”.

HENCE why I am suggesting a proactive and comprehensive approach by the ND government, in partnership withthe biz community and taking advantage of its educational ‘asset’ to reform the state’s economy. ..in an effort at creating a “new economy,” if you will.

I used NORTH Carolina as an example of how this can be done:

SC has seen the most acute outmigration of its typical economic base do to outsourcing. It has been affecte by jobs going out of the states and moving overseas probably more than any other states.  It has taken a proactive approach (rather than a let it be approach)by the government in partnership with the biz community and its higher education ‘assets’, to solve/counteract tha problem. 

The success of that approach is manifested in the Research Triangle region of North Carolina.  (Here is what FORBES Magazine thinks about it)

I’m here suggesting ND takes whatt NC has been able to do with its Research Triangle region as a model and try a similarly (but not neccessarily identical) compresensive and strtigic proactive approach, rather than a laissez-faire approach greatly influenced by sustaining the status quo.  Rather than been dependent on an economy that is perhaps only sustainable because of the large subsidies provided by the NAtional government (as the regions in Russia/former USSR I have reffered to )it should especially take advantage of the royalties and opportunity provided by its oil boom to go on that proactive and comprehensive approach, much in the same way UAE/Dubai has done.

rob, I suspect your position and mine are very similar,except perhaps I propose a more proactive approach by the ND govenment than you do.

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 12:51 pm
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I think that at some point businesses will be coming here to utilize our great folks.

The problem is that, as the anecdotal evidnece provide by Gene suggests, the businesses don’t have to come for them, ..those GREAT FOLKS are going to the places where the businesses are.

it seems to me that rather than letting it be, ND need a more conprehensive proactive approach..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 12:58 pm
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Imagine what would happen to ND if all of a sudden all Fedaral farm subsidies were to be cut today. 

Would it go the way of those regions in todays Russia I discribe?  I fear that to a great extent it would..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 01:01 pm
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I was musing and came to this funny thought:

OIL IS WELFARE FROM UNDER THE GROUND.

imagine is that wellfare was also to run out for ND..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 01:03 pm
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..*SOCIAL welfare from under the ground…

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 01:05 pm
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Obviously the money the government puts into agriculture disrupts the market.  However many if not most crops are not subsidized and there is plenty of economic incentive to grow those crops.

So if the government just dropped the programs it’d be very disruptive.  But if they found a way to do it slowly so the markets adjusted I suspect things would be just fine.  Provided of course that we aren’t forced to compete with crops that are subsidized by foreign governments.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 01:06 pm
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Imagine what would happen to ND if all of a sudden all Fedaral farm subsidies were to be cut today.

Would it go the way of those regions in todays Russia I discribe? I fear that to a great extent it would..

It would be easier to cut subsidies over a period of say 5-10 years.

HG on September 1, 2006 at 01:09 pm
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Obviously the money the government puts into agriculture disrupts the market. However many if not most crops are not subsidized and there is plenty of economic incentive to grow those crops.

So if the government just dropped the programs it’d be very disruptive. But if they found a way to do it slowly so the markets adjusted I suspect things would be just fine. Provided of course that we aren’t forced to compete with crops that are subsidized by foreign governments

You won’t be forced to compete with crops subsidized by foreign countries, you’d be forced to compete with third world countries with a cheaper labor cost (probably the major cost in US agriculture) and with a more favorable climate for those crops to grow (e.g they can grow two seaoon, twice as much in a year, than ND can) ..you’ll see all those big farm companies taking advantage of said subsidies today going to third world countries and taking advantage of no subsidies here and better conditions there to develop agriculture in those third world counties, ... funny way of ‘outsourcing’ is you will.

Take sugar beet for example, if it weren’t for subsidies and quotas foreign countries would be able to beat that heck out of US sugar beet industry, (sugar is most efficently made out of sugar cane, which is also greatly subsidized here in the UNITED states)probably forcing it go into bankrupcy.

I don’t think NORTH Dakota would be able to compete..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 01:15 pm

aNON: “rob, I suspect your position and mine are very similar,except perhaps I propose a more proactive approach by the ND govenment than you do.”

That is where our positions are dissimilar.  I have seen, over and over again, how the govt can only screw things up, and at best, do no damage.  It is outside the ability of govt to make things better than the market can do.  There are fundamental economic reasons why this is so.  Read some Milt Friedman, if you want to know them.  He and Rose were members of the New Deal, so they know whereof they speak.  Your using the smear epithet “laissez faire” for free enterprise is telling.  The best thing govt can do is to get out of the way, in the form of eliminating taxation, subsidies and regulations, and let the natural prosperity-producing ability of the market its job.  I know authority types always want to be “doing something"(spend the taxpayers’ money to buy votes and political power), but that always impoverishes us all, except for the political class.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 01:19 pm
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if it weren’t for subsidies and quotas foreign countries would be able to beat that heck out of US sugar beet industry,

And where do you suppose the most efficient place in the world to grow sugar beets is?  And why?

I’m not nearly as pessimistic as you are concerning our ability to compete with the world.  As I said most crops aren’t subsidized and it’s no problem.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 01:19 pm

aNON: “OIL IS WELFARE FROM UNDER THE GROUND.”

Oil is a natural resource, from which we make many products that are in demand throughout society.  As such, it is the exact opposite of welfare.  Oil was worthless until we imbued it with value by using it productively.  Welfare is not only non-productive, but counter-productive, for the most part.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 01:22 pm

aNON: “Take sugar beet for example, if it weren’t for subsidies and quotas foreign countries would be able to beat that heck out of US sugar beet industry, (sugar is most efficently made out of sugar cane, which is also greatly subsidized here in the UNITED states)probably forcing it go into bankrupcy.”

In a free enterprise system with private ownership of capital and no interference from govt to use the markets to achieve social goals(supporting a dying industry), the capital now misallocated to the US sugar beet industry(if it is as you claim), would shift to where it was most productive.  The other possibility is that the sugar beet industry would have incentive to become more efficient so that it could compete. The farm subsidy/welfare mentality allows the sugar beet industry to be insulated from such competition, forcing all citizens to pay higher prices for all sugar products and misdirecting money to an inefficient industry.  You can’t have both prosperity and protectionism in economics.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 01:28 pm
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I don’t think NORTH Dakota would be able to compete..

Subsidies are a way around the burden high taxes put upon all forms of industry.  By the time that crop gets to market it has been taxed more than once.  For instance, the farmer pays income tax and property tax; he also pays either employee taxes and/or contractors who pay taxes, he also pays business property taxes on equipment, not to mention fuel taxes… I could go on and on.  The point is the taxes accumulated just to get crops from field to market is substantial.  We may be forced to cut tax liabilities in order to compete—darn.

HG on September 1, 2006 at 01:36 pm
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We may be forced to cut tax liabilities in order to compete—darn.

Fine by me.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 01:39 pm
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I have to go and so wont be able to answer to most stuff rais right now, but I will answer the following:

In a free enterprise system with private ownership of capital and no interference from govt to use the markets to achieve social goals(supporting a dying industry), the capital now misallocated to the US sugar beet industry(if it is as you claim), would shift to where it was most productive. The other possibility is that the sugar beet industry would have incentive to become more efficient so that it could compete. The farm subsidy/welfare mentality allows the sugar beet industry to be insulated from such competition, forcing all citizens to pay higher prices for all sugar products and misdirecting money to an inefficient industry. You can’t have both prosperity and protectionism in economics.

There’s the catch 22, the country as a whole benefit from not having to subsidize ND farmers and from getting its resources cheaper from abroad, but your ND farmer business is hurt.

Subsidies are a way around the burden high taxes put upon all forms of industry. By the time that crop gets to market it has been taxed more than once. For instance, the farmer pays income tax and property tax; he also pays either employee taxes and/or contractors who pay taxes, he also pays business property taxes on equipment, not to mention fuel taxes… I could go on and on. The point is the taxes accumulated just to get crops from field to market is substantial. We may be forced to cut tax liabilities in order to compete—darn

gee you love the gifts (best road and transportation system in the world, best National defence in the world, etc) but don’t want to partake in paying for them?

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 02:08 pm
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gee you love the gifts (best road and transportation system in the world, best National defence in the world, etc) but don’t want to partake in paying for them?

I love it.  You of course pick out the items that are legitimate government expenditures.  And what is that about 30% of the budget.  Fine we’ll cut taxes only 70%, are you happy now.

The Whistler on September 1, 2006 at 02:11 pm

aNON: “There’s the catch 22, the country as a whole benefit from not having to subsidize ND farmers and from getting its resources cheaper from abroad, but your ND farmer business is hurt.”

It’s funny; when a business or a large corp fails, there is no problem attributing it to bad management or dishonest business practices, but when a farmer doesn’t manage his business well enough to continue, it’s always someone else’s fault, never dishonesty, and the taxpayers, through the tax and subsidy system, should bail him out.  Why the double standard?  Despite the romanticism, farming is a business, and we can apply cost/benefit analysis to it as well.

Also, what TW said.  Cut the social spending, then.  It’s the large majority of the budget.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 02:24 pm
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here is what i was responding to , ..

Subsidies are a way around the burden high taxes put upon all forms of industry. By the time that crop gets to market it has been taxed more than once. For instance, the farmer pays income tax and property tax; he also pays either employee taxes and/or contractors who pay taxes, he also pays business property taxes on equipment, not to mention fuel taxes… I could go on and on. The point is the taxes accumulated just to get crops from field to market is substantial. We may be forced to cut tax liabilities in order to compete—darn

tw says,

I love it. You of course pick out the items that are legitimate government expenditures. And what is that about 30% of the budget. Fine we’ll cut taxes only 70%, are you happy now.

As far as Federal taxes are concerned, North Dakota actually benefits.

all businesses around the country pay what HG refers to.

Products coming from abroad do so too (either here in the market on in their respective country).. or does are State taxes, not the problem of the federal government, the problem of North Dakotan and their goverment..

people in New York, California, Conneticutt, Rhode Island, Texas, Massachusetts, Nevada Illinois, Virginia etc do not. since he advocates paraty,..should we start subsidiezing them as we do the North Dakotan all industries in those states as we do farmers?

North Dakota is in the top five states that greatly benefits from our Federal tax structure

..if its about state taxes you guys are complaining, well than that ND’s problem and ND should take care of it, not the FEDERAL government

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 03:33 pm
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It’s funny; when a business or a large corp fails, there is no problem attributing it to bad management or dishonest business practices, but when a farmer doesn’t manage his business well enough to continue, it’s always someone else’s fault, never dishonesty, and the taxpayers, through the tax and subsidy system, should bail him out. Why the double standard? Despite the romanticism, farming is a business, and we can apply cost/benefit analysis to it as well.

I completly agree with you.  But the problem with been to tough with the farmer is that in our country, each one of them means a vote..

hence the inertia and resistance from our poleticians in solving a problem that makes our country less competivie as a whole..

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 03:36 pm
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..that is what I mean by it been a catch 22.

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 03:37 pm
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TW, Federal taxes aren’t the problem of ND farmers vis-a-vis does other in the US or those in other countries.

THE main competetive disadvantages are location and cost of labor, and stae structure (government, etc) problem perhaps

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 03:48 pm
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..state and other domestic problem

ND farmers in a completly free market can not compete with other places endowed with great climate and conditions for farming (e.g. where they have no drought, and are able to produce twice as much per acre a year)

and the cost of labor: e.g. say a helping hand is paid 10 USD dollar and hour in North Dakota, that same helping hand can be gotten by only paying 10 USD in a foreign country with better conditions for agriculutre.

South Dakota wasn’t able to compete when the manufacturing industry was opened to competion (the jobs were outsourced to China, India, Bangladess, other Asian countries and Latin America, etc)
The same I’m willing to bet you will happen if free market is allowed to prevail in the farm industry, vis-a-vis ND and the rest of the world

aNONOMISLY on September 1, 2006 at 03:55 pm

aNON: “ND farmers in a completly free market...”

This is another straw man argument.  Unlike Marxism, free enterprise economics doesn’t have to be perfect to work.  The more freedom, the better it works, but it works quite well with freedom to buy and sell, freedom to go into business, and freedom to own and move capital.  Besides, there is no such thing as a “perfectly free market”.  That would probably manifest as a continuous and ongoing auction, with no long term planning possible, due to fluctuating prices and the value of money.


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on September 1, 2006 at 04:12 pm
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rOB, I understand what you are saying. I’m not a purist neither, but it seems obvious to me the free market isn’t the prevailing force in ND farm industry..

aNONOMISLY on September 5, 2006 at 10:12 am
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