Say Anything Blog

An incumbent’s popularity reflects on his party’s designated successor.

“Behind Communism, Fascism, behind all occupations and invasions lurks a more basic, pervasive evil… a parade of people marching by with raised fists and shouting identical syllables in unision.” - Milan Kundera

It’s not as if the agendized MSM polls are accurate.

Hope and change, in a free world, are the private possessions of motivated individuals.

An incumbent’s popularity reflects on his party’s designated successor.

That’s true to a point, but Bush still isn’t on the ballot in November because McCain isn’t Bush.  Period.

When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

That’s true to a point, but Bush still isn’t on the ballot in November because McCain isn’t Bush. Period.

Yes, but you’re reading into things here. Granted, the media can be retarded in its reporting, but this one makes a newsworthy point. If this were a “conservative” publication, then Republicans would read it and go, “Good to know, I was worried that Bush’s unpopularity would affect our chances next year.”

“Behind Communism, Fascism, behind all occupations and invasions lurks a more basic, pervasive evil… a parade of people marching by with raised fists and shouting identical syllables in unision.” - Milan Kundera

A gift from Marie…

“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

The mainstream media’s recitation of the of the anti-Bush line tells us that the Democrats aren’t about to explain in detail what they are actually going to do if elected.  Barack Obama’s entire campaign has been focused on “Change” without without explicitly stating what that change consists of.  We’re being told who and what they aren’t… not who and what they are.

“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

I kind of liked the line Obama tossed out, well spoken and seemed “Hope” ful.  He invited me to go to his web site and read his agenda so I did.  The guy is a naive, arrogant and angry man with a tendency to solve problems by using a tighter and tighter grip. 
All he really has going for him is Hope and Change and the media is helping as much as possible.  It’s going to hurt his campaign when people look at his specific plans.

The MSM has made their choice and what they have chosen is what we are likely to get come November. It doesn’t matter to them what Obama brings to the table--the Democrats in congress will set the agenda and rule through legislation. Hello to Nancy and Harry and Ted and Steney and Leahy and Waxman and Boxer; et al.

The MSM has made their choice and what they have chosen is what we are likely to get come November.

Was this true in 2000 and 2008?

“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

2004

“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

An incumbent’s popularity reflects on his party’s designated successor.

Except when it doesn’t.  (See Clinton/Gore and Eisenhower/Nixon.)

This is from USAToday, and it is so inaccurate it’s probably MEANT to be put there by one of the most liberal news stations out there.  Or, they’re idiots.

Hairy Polemic, I think you’re right in this case--these elections are all about the successor and the administration of the last 8 years to most common American People.  They don’t want another Bush, they don’t want another Republican, so they’ll settle for Barack.

“The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter”
~Churchill.

Except when it doesn’t.  (See Clinton/Gore and Eisenhower/Nixon.)

I wrote “reflects on,” you read “decides the election.” One of us has a loose grasp on logic.

“Behind Communism, Fascism, behind all occupations and invasions lurks a more basic, pervasive evil… a parade of people marching by with raised fists and shouting identical syllables in unision.” - Milan Kundera

Hairy,

OK, so what positive attributes did the American public transfer from Clinton to Gore?  And before you say, “well half of the voters voted for him,” remember that almost as many voted for Kerry in 2004.  In fact, I don’t remember any stories about how Gore would continue the Clinton legacy.  To the contrary, I do remember a few stories about how the two were completely different.  (Of course, this is all anecdotal, so it’s as suspect as your truism.)

And really, do I need to explain in detail how Ike’s positive glow never penetrated the shadows of doubt around Nixon’s sweaty brow?

Beyond that, election outcomes are the only real measure of whether the previous administration set the stage for the next.  And I wasn’t claiming that your truism was never true.  How else can one explain how George H.W. Bush got elected other than to say that people thought he would continue Reagan’s policies (the theme of his campaign)?  And Ford’s loss was brought on at least in part because there wasn’t enough distance between Nixon’s resignation and Ford’s re-election campaign.

McCain isn’t even close to Bush. rbb, showing us a picture with both of them in it doesn’t change that fact.

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/071a50F72DbPd/610x.jpg

By your logic this picture shows that President Bush and Speaker Pelosi are one and the same.  More liberal logic for the masses.

A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell its numbers.

McCain isn’t even close to Bush.

“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

RBB, you seem to be implying that physical contact is how you catch political cooties.  However, you can find gobs of pictures of all political parties with all other political parties. ergo, not true or all parties have become one. 

Could you stop the stupidity of posting pictures that make you FEEL like you’ve made a scathing point?

Could you stop the stupidity of posting pictures that make you FEEL like you’ve made a scathing point?

Not likely; it’s his modus operandi.

Hope and change, in a free world, are the private possessions of motivated individuals.

Could you stop the stupidity of posting pictures that make you FEEL like you’ve made a scathing point?

This cannot happen. Liberals play on peoples’ emotions to make them FEEl that the democrats are trying to do good things.  An example of this was Nancy Pelosi bringing all the children to the podium with her when she became speaker.

A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell its numbers.

Kbiel,

And I wasn’t claiming that your truism was never true…

So you gave me two examples that distinguish my “truism” and then gave me two examples that support it. How about, instead, we turn to real emperical analysis and call my truism a theory that would take a bit more than your two contrary examples to dispute. Considering that “my” truism-theory accounts for more variables than mere post-facto election results, you may have to do a little more than show that it didn’t predict two elections to dispute it.

If you follow the above link, you’ll find an abstract that discusses how incumbent popularity is one of the major variables in every election forecast model. Well what do you know, it’s not just “my” theory, it seems to be “a” political science theory. And if newspapers rely on it to decide the newsworthiness of their stories, they are, at the very least, acting reasonably. (Bolded to remind you that this was the initial point of our dicussion.)

“Behind Communism, Fascism, behind all occupations and invasions lurks a more basic, pervasive evil… a parade of people marching by with raised fists and shouting identical syllables in unision.” - Milan Kundera

Really Hairy?  So do you think this “theory” will be accurate with regard to this election?  Besides the fact that you offered a truism at the beginning, your single citations does not necessarily support your theory.  It looked at all presidential elections, not just non-incumbent elections.  So it includes data from 1980, 1984, 1992 and 1996 (assuming they went back that far and no further) which are not comparable to today.

And let’s not even mention the fact that there isn’t even an incumbent VP running as in 1988 and 2000.  Also the media would love for us to believe dissatisfaction with Bush is due completely to his conservative policies rather than split between those who think he is too conservative and those, like myself, who think he hasn’t been conservative enough.  All of which brings us full circle to Rob’s original point that McCain isn’t Bush although the media and other democrats will try to portray him as such.

Kbiel,

So do you think this “theory” will be accurate with regard to this election?

What I think about the theory is moot. I will repeat from above: ”And if newspapers rely on it to decide the newsworthiness of their stories, they are, at the very least, acting reasonably.”

It is a credible, peer reviewed theory that has existed in political science for decades. It isn’t limited only to cases where the incumbent VP is running—so it is applicable to this election. Thus the media is reasonable to consider Bush’s popularity a newsworthy subject in the matter of McCain’s chances.

Rob attacked the newsworthiness of the report, I respond that given what we know about the effect of an incumbent’s popularity on a same-party candidate’s chances, it is a reasonably newsworthy report.

Was that easy logic for you to follow? I can add “ifs” and “thens” if you want.

Additionally, your repeated use of the word “truism” keeps reminding me of that scene in The Princess Bride where Montoya says to Vizini, “You keep using this word… are you sure it means what you think it means?”

“Behind Communism, Fascism, behind all occupations and invasions lurks a more basic, pervasive evil… a parade of people marching by with raised fists and shouting identical syllables in unision.” - Milan Kundera

...it is a reasonably newsworthy report.

Nope, it’s just more self-serving propaganda from an MSM that wants a Dem elected, and will use any excuse, including agendized polls, to sell their partisan bullshit.

Hope and change, in a free world, are the private possessions of motivated individuals.