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Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The Economic Stimulus Plan Is Really Just Economic Redistribution

John Stossel:

The economy does seem to be slowing, and there was a net loss of jobs in January. The housing industry is sluggish and the credit market tight because of the subprime-mortgage problems. So, to “get the economy moving,” the anointed experts want the government to quickly put cash in our hands. When we rush out to spend it, the story goes, the economy will get out of the ditch.

Interesting theory, but it’s hardly new, and it’s been demolished many times before by free-market economists. One problem, which George Mason University economist Russell Roberts observed, is that the money that will allegedly be “injected” into the economy is already in the economy. So how can it be a stimulus?

“The politicians are always going to inject some amount of money into the hands of consumers and into the economy, like a doctor giving a lifesaving blood transfusion,” Roberts says. “But where does the economic injection come from? It has to come from inside the system. It’s not an outside stimulus like the chest paddles or the transfusion. It means taking money from someone or somewhere inside the system and giving it to someone else.”

The federal government is in the red. Bush’s new budget has a $400 billion deficit. There’s no lockbox with $100 billion in it. So to give everyone a tax rebate, the government will have to borrow more money. But that only moves the cash from one part of the economy to another. As Roberts says, “It’s like taking a bucket of water from the deep end of a pool and dumping it into the shallow end.”

The real solution to the problem is to simply tie less money up in the government.  Tax businesses less and they’ll hire more workers, expand their operations and overall ramp up production.  Tax individuals less and they’ll use that money to invest in retirement, education or stocks.  These things help the economy.

A one-time check from the government doesn’t do much of anything.  But the checks soon to be mailed out sure make it seem like the politicians are “doing something” about the economy.

Comments

The deep end of the pool does not exist at this time.
This is printing cash and incurring public debt to be paid in the future.

“It’s like taking a bucket of water from the deep end of a pool and dumping it into the shallow end.”

WOOF on February 13, 2008 at 10:19 pm

WOOF,

My congratulations!  Quoting Professor Roberts is no small or insignificant feat.  Just be sure the portside prattlers don’t find out what, and who, you’ve been reading lately.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on February 13, 2008 at 10:37 pm

LOL, Woof…
Great blog rob…


check out Goon’s World

http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/

Goon’s North Dakota Red Neck

http://redneckndgoon.blogspot.com/

goon on February 13, 2008 at 10:46 pm

It always comes down to spending.  Stop the wasteful spending(social engineering schemes and entitlements) and the problem is solved.


"If the good men are silent only the wicked are heard.” - Edmund Burke

robert108 on February 13, 2008 at 11:27 pm

A one-time check from the government doesn’t do much of anything.  But the checks soon to be mailed out sure make it seem like the politicians are “doing something” about the economy.

You nailed it Rob.


No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear
*Edmund Burke*

MikeAdamson on February 14, 2008 at 07:37 am

There IS no recession!


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on February 14, 2008 at 07:54 am
Avatar for HG

I would love to hear a liberal’s definition of a recession and defense of these recession claims.

HG on February 14, 2008 at 09:29 am

Like “conservatism”, “recession” is very much in the eye of the beholder. This guy thinks yes as does this fellow. Arthur Laffer thinks so too although he’s definitely not a liberal so I shouldn’t count him.

As far as the technical definition goes, I suppose we’ll have to wait another quarter or two for the definitive word.


No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear
*Edmund Burke*

MikeAdamson on February 14, 2008 at 09:50 am
Avatar for HG

Like “conservatism”, “recession” is very much in the eye of the beholder.

I think it would be more accurate to say “recession” is in the mind of the party which stand to gain politically in the nearing election cycle.  The media has been using the term for about 6 months now.  That could paint a distorted picture and result in a “recession” as you define it before one acutally exists and may lead to an actual recession.

HG on February 14, 2008 at 10:06 am

I think the term is used as political fodder but, OTOH, I’m not so sure that Laffer, Gartner and Rosenberg are thinking necessarily along those lines. That doesn’t mean they’re right of course but it does suggest that not everyone who believes the recession has started is a liberal.


No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear
*Edmund Burke*

MikeAdamson on February 14, 2008 at 10:32 am
Avatar for HG

True Mike, But these guys are kinda late to the party, about 6 mo. late.  To repeat myself, if “recession” is in the eye of the beholder, than it is likely due to the inaccurate reporting of the state of our economy over the last 6 mo.

HG on February 14, 2008 at 10:40 am

Mike,

Since you’ve troubled yourself to raise the subject, and off-handedly disputed the official definition, perhaps you’ll be good enough to explain to the rest of us exactly what a recession is?


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on February 14, 2008 at 10:45 am
Avatar for HG

I understand a recession to be 2 straight quarters of negative growth.  A recession is more than an economic downturn that only lasts 3 or 4 months.  It is a little early IMO to declare a recession given the state of our economy.

HG on February 14, 2008 at 10:46 am

if “recession” is in the eye of the beholder, than it is likely due to the inaccurate reporting of the state of our economy over the last 6 mo.

The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased,” Bernanke said.


“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

realitybasedbob on February 14, 2008 at 11:01 am

Bernanke 2/14/08


“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

realitybasedbob on February 14, 2008 at 11:10 am
Avatar for HG

RCB,

Perception is not recession but it can contribute to economic slowing and even a recession.  Even before all the disingenuous recession talk, the media was glorifying the downturn in the housing market.  Perception has been strongly influence if not molded by all the negative economic reporting in spite of an economy that at the time was extremely strong.  Even today the economic news is not near as bad as the press makes it out to be, and you liberals hope it to be.  Every election cycle we are treated to bad economic news and liberal hopes of a recession.  Why is it you all are so anxious for bad economic news?  Because you think it will translate into democrat gains.

HG on February 14, 2008 at 11:10 am

Why do you like putting words in my mouth?


“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

realitybasedbob on February 14, 2008 at 11:12 am
Avatar for HG

RCB,

What words did I attribute to you?

HG on February 14, 2008 at 11:15 am

“The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased,” Bernanke said.

When I clicked on your link:

We’re sorry! The Web page you are looking for could not be found.
Please check the address and try again, use the site map or AOL Directory below, or use AOL Search to find what you want. You may also go directly to the AOL Main Page.

Awesome. That’s conclusive.

Kenny on February 14, 2008 at 12:11 pm

Kenny: I heard the speech, and Master Baiter cherry-picked it.  Bernanke actually said that the housing sector has worsened, but that the export market is promising to offset it.  More leftie lying.


"If the good men are silent only the wicked are heard.” - Edmund Burke

robert108 on February 14, 2008 at 12:23 pm

B1...I’m comfortable with this definition

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

The difficulty with the term, as you well know, is that we usually don’t know we’re in a recession until it’s over or just about done. There’s nothing particularly magical about meeting the conditions required to label a period “recessionary”...it’s just an interesting historical observation. What’s useful to know is when the economy is performing well and when it’s not and to identify that in real time requires the use of indicators which aren’t always reliable at the source and don’t always hold any predictive value any way.

I don’t know if the American economy is in a recession today or not but I do lean towards the view that the economy has seen healthier days. I doubt that whether one believes the economy is in or headed towards recession depends on a liberal/conservative split although I’m sure some do.


No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear
*Edmund Burke*

MikeAdamson on February 14, 2008 at 12:56 pm

Recession

Broadly speaking, a period of slow or negative economic GROWTH, usually accompanied by rising UNEMPLOYMENT. Economists have two more precise definitions of a recession. The first, which can be hard to prove, is when an economy is growing at less than its long-term trend rate of growth and has spare CAPACITY. The second is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

From Economist.com

The usually accepted economic definition of this economic condition is the last one.  It’s not hard to spot it, since one month of negative GDP is the first clue.  We haven’t had that yet.
It’s also interesting to compare the MSM’s “coverage” of the real Clinton recession with the so-far mythological Bush recession.


"If the good men are silent only the wicked are heard.” - Edmund Burke

robert108 on February 14, 2008 at 01:05 pm
Avatar for Old&Intheway

I’ve always liked this definition...It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job.  It’s a depression when you lose yours.

Old&Intheway on February 14, 2008 at 03:06 pm
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