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Thursday, March 09, 2006

The Big Abortion Debate

Ace has a post up about the re-emergence of the abortion issue with South Dakota's passing of a law banning the medica procedure. It is Ace's opinion that the move by South Dakota politicians will be a drag on Republican campaigns nationally and will hurt the pro-life movement in the long-run.

Here's the gist of his argument:

I think there's something of a Pauline Kael effect going on among abortion foes. She famously quipped that she didn't understand how Nixon had won, as no one she knew had voted for him. I don't think abortion foes are at that level of disconnect, certainly, and further, I think they would say that doing the right thing is more important than doing the popular thing. But I'm not sure they realize how unopopular a full repeal of Roe would be in the country now.

For 75% of blue-state women, it's virtually the only issue. That may be overstated, but abortion rights are important to just about every woman who grew up north of the Mason-Dixon line, east of the Mississippi, or west of the Nevada deserts.

Putting abortion in play now will cost Republicans seats in Congress. Blue-state districts that would happily vote for Republicans because of taxes, crime, etc., will now swing towards the Democrats.

Furthermore, I don't see how this actually advances pro-life goals. There are only two confirmed votes against Roe on the Supreme Court-- Scalia and Thomas, who both consider the decision a very bad one (which it is, of course) and who are quite willing to overturn it. Kennedy may or may not agree with the original decision, but he believes the debate has been settled, at least as a legal matter, by the opinon, and he is unwilling to disturb Roe.

Which means that even if Roberts and Alito voted to overturn Roe, there would be only four votes to do so. And I'm betting that one or both of them adopts the Kennedy-O'Connor position -- it may have been a bad decision, and some additional restrictions are constitutionally permissible, but the core of the decision -- that a woman has a right to an abortion under most circumstances, by constitutional diktat -- is now protected by 30+ years of stare decisis.


Overall I disagree with Ace's arguments, though I do think he makes a good point about the likelihood of any more than four Justices voting against Roe, maximum.

What we need to remember is that our court system works slow. Yes, South Dakota has passed the ban on abortion, but the issue really can't be a campaign topic for legislators until Roe itself is overturned. Given that the last abortion-related case to be settled by the Supreme Court took over two decades to conclude I really don't see where this South Dakota law makes abortion any more of a campaign issue than it normally is. Legislators literally cannot do a thing about abortion until Roe is overturned. When/if Roe is overturned we'll have a different situation on our hand.

As for South Dakota's decision hurting the overall pro-life movement, I don't see it that way. It is doubtful that there are enough anti-Roe votes on the Supreme Court now to overturn the ruling. That being said, I again have to point out that the issue may not reach the high court for another decade, at least. A lot can change between now and then. Will SCOTUS be more receptive to overturning Roe in a decade? Who knows, but with the pendulum of public opinion seeming (at least to this observer) to swing back from strident feminism and pro-choice viewpoints now seems like as good a time as any to challenge Roe.

I understand that many are leery of the abortion issue. It is a political hot potatoe. It isn't a safe issue for any politician, but what many need to remember is that right now the pro-life movement is all about overturning an unconstitutional Supreme Court ruling. Nobody wants to "ban" abortion, people just want the freedom afforded them in the Consitution to decide the issue for themselves in their own states.

I don't think that's an unreasonable position to have.

Comments

Avatar for Justin B

Rob,

Bush took on Social Security and Tax Reform as key points in his agenda, and the Status Quo won out fairly decisively.  Still, I don’t think the SD decision gets much play in the moderate suburbs and the purple congressional districts.  Remember, there are some (very few) pro-Life Dems out there too and it again demonstrates that not all Republicans are Pro-Life Robots that are lock step with the Evangelical Christian movement. 

I don’t think that we can really tell how the SCOTUS will vote until the case is heard, but ultimately, the SD law can only lead to further clarification of what Roe means, whether overturned or not.  And several justices that lean left may be gone by the time it is heard.

Was Karl Rove behind this?  I don’t see how it hurts or helps the 2006 elections.  It is a non-issue since all Federal officials can distance themselves from the issue.  This is a state issue, not a Federal one.  Not a Federal Law.

Justin B on March 9, 2006 at 11:36 pm
Avatar for Justin B

I think this challenge comes down to States Rights and it will force them to review the 14th Amendment as well as the original logic behind the "Right to Privacy" and the "Due Process" clause that they used to arrive at Roe and overturn the 10th Amendment.

I was reading the Federalist Papers recently and <a href="http://www.law.ou.edu/hist/federalist/federalist-40-49/federalist.46.shtml">Federalist 46</a>:

<blockquote>

Were it admitted, however, that the Federal government may feel an equal disposition with the State governments to extend its power beyond the due limits, the latter would still have the advantage in the means of defeating such encroachments. If an act of a particular State, though unfriendly to the national government, be generally popular in that State and should not too grossly violate the oaths of the State officers, it is executed immediately and, of course, by means on the spot and depending on the State alone. The opposition of the federal government, or the interposition of federal officers, would but inflame the zeal of all parties on the side of the State, and the evil could not be prevented or repaired, if at all, without the employment of means which must always be resorted to with reluctance and difficulty. On the other hand, should an unwarrantable measure of the federal government be unpopular in particular States, which would seldom fail to be the case, or even a warrantable measure be so, which may sometimes be the case, the means of opposition to it are powerful and at hand. The disquietude of the people; their repugnance and, perhaps, refusal to co-operate with the officers of the Union; the frowns of the executive magistracy of the State; the embarrassments created by legislative devices, which would often be added on such occasions, would oppose, in any State, difficulties not to be despised; would form, in a large State, very serious impediments; and where the sentiments of several adjoining States happened to be in unison, would present obstructions which the federal government would hardly be willing to encounter.<BR><BR>

But ambitious encroachments of the federal government, on the authority of the State governments, would not excite the opposition of a single State, or of a few States only. They would be signals of general alarm. Every government would espouse the common cause. A correspondence would be opened. Plans of resistance would be concerted. One spirit would animate and conduct the whole.</blockquote>

That is what the 10th Amendment is all about.  That is what the Constitution is all about and this from a Federalist--Madison--no less.  No better yet, this from a guy from Massachusetts.  To attack what South Dakota is doing right now and what the other Red States are doing is to attack the very fabric of the Constitution and to slap Adams, Jefferson, Paine, Hamilton, and others squarely in the face.

This is tyranny by the Judicial Branch and the unelected at the Federal Level against the will of the people.

Justin B on March 10, 2006 at 07:27 am
Avatar for Justin B

Damned HTML tags.

Justin B on March 10, 2006 at 07:28 am
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