The Big Abortion Debate
Here's the gist of his argument:
I think there's something of a Pauline Kael effect going on among abortion foes. She famously quipped that she didn't understand how Nixon had won, as no one she knew had voted for him. I don't think abortion foes are at that level of disconnect, certainly, and further, I think they would say that doing the right thing is more important than doing the popular thing. But I'm not sure they realize how unopopular a full repeal of Roe would be in the country now.
For 75% of blue-state women, it's virtually the only issue. That may be overstated, but abortion rights are important to just about every woman who grew up north of the Mason-Dixon line, east of the Mississippi, or west of the Nevada deserts.
Putting abortion in play now will cost Republicans seats in Congress. Blue-state districts that would happily vote for Republicans because of taxes, crime, etc., will now swing towards the Democrats.
Furthermore, I don't see how this actually advances pro-life goals. There are only two confirmed votes against Roe on the Supreme Court-- Scalia and Thomas, who both consider the decision a very bad one (which it is, of course) and who are quite willing to overturn it. Kennedy may or may not agree with the original decision, but he believes the debate has been settled, at least as a legal matter, by the opinon, and he is unwilling to disturb Roe.
Which means that even if Roberts and Alito voted to overturn Roe, there would be only four votes to do so. And I'm betting that one or both of them adopts the Kennedy-O'Connor position -- it may have been a bad decision, and some additional restrictions are constitutionally permissible, but the core of the decision -- that a woman has a right to an abortion under most circumstances, by constitutional diktat -- is now protected by 30+ years of stare decisis.
Overall I disagree with Ace's arguments, though I do think he makes a good point about the likelihood of any more than four Justices voting against Roe, maximum.
What we need to remember is that our court system works slow. Yes, South Dakota has passed the ban on abortion, but the issue really can't be a campaign topic for legislators until Roe itself is overturned. Given that the last abortion-related case to be settled by the Supreme Court took over two decades to conclude I really don't see where this South Dakota law makes abortion any more of a campaign issue than it normally is. Legislators literally cannot do a thing about abortion until Roe is overturned. When/if Roe is overturned we'll have a different situation on our hand.
As for South Dakota's decision hurting the overall pro-life movement, I don't see it that way. It is doubtful that there are enough anti-Roe votes on the Supreme Court now to overturn the ruling. That being said, I again have to point out that the issue may not reach the high court for another decade, at least. A lot can change between now and then. Will SCOTUS be more receptive to overturning Roe in a decade? Who knows, but with the pendulum of public opinion seeming (at least to this observer) to swing back from strident feminism and pro-choice viewpoints now seems like as good a time as any to challenge Roe.
I understand that many are leery of the abortion issue. It is a political hot potatoe. It isn't a safe issue for any politician, but what many need to remember is that right now the pro-life movement is all about overturning an unconstitutional Supreme Court ruling. Nobody wants to "ban" abortion, people just want the freedom afforded them in the Consitution to decide the issue for themselves in their own states.
I don't think that's an unreasonable position to have.












