Should We Treat The War On Terror Like A Natural Disaster?

A week ago I posted on an opinion column which put forth the idea that we should “declare victory” in the war on terror. Yesterday political science professor John Mueller posted similar thoughts on the Cato Institute blog Unbound.
Here’s an excerpt from his conclusion:

The United States is unlikely to be toppled by dramatic acts of terrorist destruction, even extreme ones. As it happens, officials estimated for a while last year that Hurricane Katrina had inflicted 10,000 deaths–the tolerance level set by General Myers. Although this, of course, was not a terrorist act, there were no indications whatever that, while catastrophic for the hurricane victims themselves, the way of life of the rest of the nation would be notably done away with by such a disaster. It is also easy to imagine scenarios in which 10,000 would have been killed on September 11–if the planes had hit the World Trade Center later in the day when more people were at work for example–and indeed, early estimates at the time were much higher than 3000. Any death is tragic, but it is hardly likely that a substantially higher loss on 9/11 would have necessarily have triggered societal suicide.
We already absorb a great deal of tragedy and unpleasantness and still manage to survive. We live with a considerable quantity of crime, and the United States regularly loses 40,000 lives each year in automobile accidents. Moreover, countries have endured massive, sudden catastrophes without collapsing. In 1990 and then again in 2003, Iran suffered earthquakes that nearly instantly killed some 35,000 in each case. The tsunami that hit Indonesia and elsewhere in 2004 killed several times that many. But the countries have clearly survived these disasters: they constitute major tragedies, of course, but they hardly proved to be “existential” ones.
Thus the country can readily absorb considerable damage if necessary, and it has outlasted far more potent threats in the past. To suggest otherwise is to express contempt for America’s capacity to deal with adversity.

I think it’s telling that the folks making this argument minimize the impact of terrorism. In the column I posted about previously the argument put forth stated that because we haven’t had another terrorist attack like 9/11 since 9/11 the threat of terrorism is being overstated. In order to make this argument the authors had to suggest that the terror attacks in London, Madrid, Bali, Beslan, etc. were all of a smaller scope than 9/11 and thus somehow acceptable. The authors also had to ignore that one of the reasons why we haven’t had another 9/11 because we are doing the very things they oppose doing (read: NSA call monitoring, etc.) for the sake of civil liberties absolutism. They’ve forgotten, apparently, that the war on terror they oppose fighting has thwarted attacks on the Brooklyn Bridge, the Holland Tunnel in New York and most recently the plot to blow up about a dozen British planes with liquid explosives.
Mueller’s argument above, however, takes a bit of a different angle. He seems to think that we should deal with terrorism by simply absorbing the damage and destruction they mete out and then move on with our lives. After all, we deal with things like natural disasters and automobile accidents every year, right? If we can tolerate the deaths from those things we can tolerate death from terrorism, right?
Wrong.

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  • http://Array Bat One

    To me, the argument offered by Mueller and his fellow travelers has a startling rhetorical resemblence to the notion that because we can stand a 35% upper tax bracket, that we ought to accept a 50% bracket, or perhaps even higher.

    Of course, in both cases, it is always someone else that is designated to accept the actual pain of the proposed policy… someone else’s loved ones killed in a terror attack, someone else (the “rich”) paying the higher tax rates, someone else forced to make the required sacrifice. A truly monstrous approach all dressed up to appear perfectly reasonable.

  • robert108

    Rob: In order to understand why 9/11 had the impact that it did, while natural disasters take many more lives, and daily life takes even more(like the 40,000 traffic fatalities every year), one must realize that terrorism is a strategy, not just a random occurrence.
    The purpose of terrorism as a strategy is to get the target group to surrender without a fight. This enables a smaller and less technologically advanced group to take over a larger and more technologically advanced group, out of fear that the attacks will continue and even escalate.
    We can adjust to the loss of 40,000 civilians in auto accidents because it is not only a constant, but it is the consequence of freedom of action. None of this is true of terrorism.
    If we give in to the terrorists, their strategy will have succeeded.
    Natural disasters are not a strategy; they are events to be survived.

  • sayanything-42

    Faulty comparison.

    Natural Disasters are those which we cannot with any accuracy predict or prevent. We know that hurricanes pose a threat to the gulf and atlantic coasts, yet we cannot predict when and where they will strike with accuracy outside a 72 hour window. Even with that warning, we can only take measures to emmeliorate the effects.

    Given a 72 hour window, we could have prevented the war crimes of 9/11.

    Short of abandoning the gulf and south atlantic coasts of the United States, we cannot prevent damage from hurricanes in the United States.

    The same is not true of the terrorists. They can be hunted down and exterminated. The price of supporting them can be made too great for the nations which currently sponsor them to sustain. So too can the price be raised for the individuals who plan, support, train, or fund terrorists.

    It’s not a question of ability.

    It’s a question of will.

    Out Here
    Rodney Graves
    rodney.g.graves@gmail.com

  • robert108

    Rob: Interestingly enough, the environmental extremists are attempting to use natural disasters as a strategy, via the Global Warming hypothesis. By “threatening” us with natural disasters “caused” by our own activities, they are attempting to get us to give up our industrial activities without giving us anything in return. You can’t negotiate with the globalwarmingists, either. They demand you give up a major part of your life and let them dictate the rules by which you can live. Interesting.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Another troubling thing about Mueller’s analysis is that he only takes into account fatalities when calculating the impact of a terror attack. The body counts from 9/11 were awful, but let’s not forget the economic impact that attack had. The airline industry was shut down. Our economy was thrown into turmoil.

    Mueller might claim that those things happened because we overreacted, but how exactly does he expect us to react when terrorists crash a couple of jets into one of the centers of our financial world? Not to mention the center of our military might?

    From his conclusion:

    …the country can readily absorb considerable damage if necessary, and it has outlasted far more potent threats in the past. To suggest otherwise is to express contempt for America’s capacity to deal with adversity.

    But why deal with adversity if we don’t have to?

    Which isn’t to say that I think we can stop all terror attacks. Eventually, I think, an attack is going to slip through…but if we stop the five attacks before that isn’t that a good thing? Haven’t we minimized the impact?

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