Rove has some potentially good news for the GOP

The benefit of people getting old in the Northeast is that they are moving to the South with some more like-minded voters. The redistricting looks to benefit the GOP.

This matters because the 2010 Census could allocate as many as four additional congressional districts to Texas, two each to Arizona and Florida, and one district to each of a number of (mostly) red-leaning states, while subtracting seats from (mostly) blue-leaning states like Michigan, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania and, for the first time, California. Redistricting and reapportionment could help tilt the playing field back to the GOP in Congress and the race for the White House by moving seven House seats (and electoral votes) from mostly blue to mostly red states.

Unfortunately we will probably need quite a few more seats that what are redistricted. But, the silver lining is, the party in power pretty much always loses seats in mid-terms.

History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president’s first midterm election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers.
Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president’s first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.

Rove the eternal optimist. Once things “Change” for the worst we should get some seats.

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  • http://magyartruth.blogspot.com/ Chief RZ

    So do we all. Where we will go and what we have done will remain.

  • http://www.myspace.com/thekingscourt4u Gman

    Here’s an email I got tonight from a friend. It lays out the differences perfectly.

    A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a bass boat below. She shouted to him, Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don’t know where I am.’

    The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, ‘You’re in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.’

    She rolled her eyes and said, ‘You must be a Republican.’

    ‘I am,’ replied the bass fisherman. ‘How did you know?’

    ‘Well,’ answered the balloonist, ‘everything you told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to do with your information, and I’m still lost. Frankly, you’ve not been much help to me.’

    The man smiled and responded, ‘You must be a Democrat ‘.

    ‘I am,’ replied the balloonist. ‘How did you know?’

    ‘Well,’ said the bass fisherman, ‘you don’t know where you are or where you are going. You’ve risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You’re in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but, somehow, now it’s my fault.’

  • groetzinger

    The thing about old people is that they die!

  • dragon poker

    Once things “Change” for the worst we should get some seats.

    This is the best idea? Wait for the dems to screw up? Hmm….Well given the current state of perception, this might be the only option, as poor as it is. The GOP cant stand on its own so must wait it out and hope the Dems melt down. What a sad position to be in.

  • http://insanereindeer.blogspot.com/ Kenny

    I believe that this election – more than anything else – signaled a shift of the electorate from moderate right-of-center to moderate left-of-center.

    I think this election signalled a lack of critical thinking. So many people heard “change change change” and didn’t stop to think about what such a change means. Or even what that change was.

    In CALIFORNIA, they voted to reban gay marriage. As did several other states.

    Obama won because the media was firmly behind him, and people were swept up in the idea of being a part of electing the first black President.

  • http://www.willisms.com/ Zsa Zsa

    What is interesting how much New Hampshire has changed . The New Hampshire motto is Live Free or Die. It just seems like most of those people have moved away from that theory.

  • sc

    I believe I heard that 2/3 of voters 30 years old and under went for Obama. They want change and change to them, at least I think, is what can government do for them. Many are, perhaps, “college” educated or should I say “socialistically” educated. Conservatives have two major obstacles. Professors, who adore socialism, and the vast majority of news media, who just hate conservative values.

  • http://www.bikebubba.blogspot.com/ Bike Bubba

    Woof’s got a point. Darned shame that we need to assume these days that people will gerrymander, though. We used to talk about “honor” in these matters, and of the bad repute to be had by taking advantage of temporary power.

  • http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

    pparents said: believe that this election has revealed some very uncomfortable truths for us on the right:

    1. A lot of Americans are perfectly happy to tax those who make more and redistribute the money.

    2. Many Americans, perhaps a majority, want the war ended and don’t believe that a summary withdrawal is a bad thing. Indeed, they look forward to warmer relations with Europe and our former enemies.

    3. Huge numbers of voters view the courts as the means to get around ‘restrictive’ state and federal legislation and want the dems to liberalize the courts.

    4. In spite of the facts, substantial numbers believe that conservative economics are to blame for the current economic crisis and would welcome a resurgence of federal regulations and government largesse.

    5. I am astonished at the number of people who want the Fairness Doctrine reconstituted because they hate conservative talk-radio.

    6. In huge numbers, people have rejected the social agenda of the right. In the coming months and years, we will even see an open and aggressive attack on religion in America.

    7. Regardless of the facts, a majority of Americans believe that man-made global warming is real and that conservatives are out of touch with reality.

    I believe that this election – more than anything else – signaled a shift of the electorate from moderate right-of-center to moderate left-of-center.

    While I hope more than anything to be wrong, I do not think we will make any substantial gains in ‘10, ‘12 or even ‘14.

    I am not going to totally discount what you said but I believe that there are a lot of people that have no clue or even thought about what you said. On the tax issue NOBAMA went out there and told people that 95% of the people will get a tax cut that is false. NOBAMA had people spinning and spinning lies about tax cuts, even though 40% of people pay no income taxes.

    I think you’re giving people way too much credit. There are a lot of people that listened to the MSM foam at the mouth about NOBAMA or are just plain ignorant and don’t have a clue when it comes to the issues. Wait till a lot of these people that voted for NOBAMA realize he is the radical people said on talk radio said he was.

  • pparets

    Once things “Change” for the worst we should get some seats.

    This has been a frequent theme on SAB and one used to rationalize opposing McCain as the head of the ticket…

    “An Obama victory will let people see how bad the dems are, and they will flock back to the GOP and conservatives.”

    … the assumption being that folks will view the future and the world as conservatives do. I’m not so sure that is true.

    I believe that this election has revealed some very uncomfortable truths for us on the right:

    1. A lot of Americans are perfectly happy to tax those who make more and redistribute the money.

    2. Many Americans, perhaps a majority, want the war ended and don’t believe that a summary withdrawal is a bad thing. Indeed, they look forward to warmer relations with Europe and our former enemies.

    3. Huge numbers of voters view the courts as the means to get around ‘restrictive’ state and federal legislation and want the dems to liberalize the courts.

    4. In spite of the facts, substantial numbers believe that conservative economics are to blame for the current economic crisis and would welcome a resurgence of federal regulations and government largesse.

    5. I am astonished at the number of people who want the Fairness Doctrine reconstituted because they hate conservative talk-radio.

    6. In huge numbers, people have rejected the social agenda of the right. In the coming months and years, we will even see an open and aggressive attack on religion in America.

    7. Regardless of the facts, a majority of Americans believe that man-made global warming is real and that conservatives are out of touch with reality.

    I believe that this election – more than anything else – signaled a shift of the electorate from moderate right-of-center to moderate left-of-center.

    While I hope more than anything to be wrong, I do not think we will make any substantial gains in ’10, ’12 or even ’14.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com/profile/pcND pcND

    This is the best idea? Wait for the dems to screw up? Hmm….Well given the current state of perception, this might be the only option, as poor as it is. The GOP cant stand on its own so must wait it out and hope the Dems melt down. What a sad position to be in.

    I agree, terrible idea. I’m with you on this. The GOP can’t stand on its’ own under the current leadership. We need leadership that brings us back to our fiscal conservative roots and can demosnstrate that benefit to young people and moderatates.

    I don’t care what anyone else thinks about not having moderates in the party. No moderates means no winning elections.

  • http://www.willisms.com/ Zsa Zsa

    So do young people,

  • dragon poker

    I don’t care what anyone else thinks about not having moderates in the party. No moderates means no winning elections.

    I keep saying this but the more vocal and emotional among us reject this out of hand, often in the most self destructive and self serving ways possible. As long as these same people reject the intellectuals and the non social issues types, the party will flounder. It might even be done. Historically, political parties do fail and disappear. Does the GOP want to go the way of the No Nothing Party? Thats where they are headed right now, and this country needs a legitimate loyal opposition now more than ever. The abyss is not far away.
    The GOP doesnt need social issues/religious dogma as its core. This tactic should be rejected. What the GOP needs are solid trustworthy fiscal conservatives and people who can be trusted to practice what they preach.
    Good stewards of money that believe in personal freedom and personal responsibility are what we need now, not social issues emotionally charged fanatics. We need less emotion and more thinking.
    I am tired saying the same thing over and over. Is logic dead around here or what?

  • WOOFX

    Think North Carolina, Florida, Virginia.

    The benefit of people getting old in the Northeast is that they are moving to the South with some more like-minded voters.

    Think who will do the redistricting.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com/readers/author/sparkiearbuckle sayanything-81

    This jibber…

    Darned shame that we need to assume these days that people will gerrymander, though.

    …is damned ironic coming from the jerrymanderers.

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