Here’s the number of delegates each candidate got:
Romney - 9
Fred Thompson - 2
Duncan Hunter - 2
John McCain - 1
Uncommitted - 2
Despite media reports calling the state for Romney, there are nine counties left that haven’t picked delegates. You can watch the live results yourself as they come in by clicking here, scrolling down and then clicking on the Wyoming state flag.
Considering NH is being punished for holding their Primary early, Wyoming actually will have the same number of delegates this year (12) as New Hampshire.
Romney won like 72% of the vote in Wyoming.
Right now, Romney leads the pack with 26 delegates. Even if he comes in second to McGrumpy in NH, he will still likely have 30 heading into Michigan. Huck will be second with 21.
Michigan is a “winner-take-all” state with 61 delegates. If Romney (he’s from there and hsi dad was popular Governor) can pull out a win in Michigan (even after losing NH), he will head into SC with a 91 to 21 lead over Huck and a 91 to 8 lead of McCain.
So the idea that Romney MUST “win” NH (a proportional state) is wrong. Second in NH and then first in Michigan and he is in the catbird seat. However, if second in Nh propels McGrumpy to first in Michigan, I think Romney may be toast.
All of the top, non-MSM Polls are now trending Romney. Zogby has Romney ahead by 1 while Rasmussen has him minus 2 (however, that is a two day rolling average, meaning that Romney actually polled +1 since the previous day ws -5).
So in both these polls, Romney has moved up 5 and 6 points in a day.
It also appears that Romney is ahead by 6 among conservatives. McGrumpy leads among independents. If they vote for Obama instead, he is in bigger trouble than the polls show.
In conclusion, Romney could still lose NH then get deep-sixed in MI, but right now, it looks like he may still pull it off. If he can pull out MI, he gets to wear the “front-runner” hat until SC.
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