Republicans Post Largest Lead Of Election Cycle In Generic Ballot Poll
Of course, all the usual caveats apply about generic ballot polls, but this certainly doesn’t portend good things for Democrats this election season.
A new Gallup Poll out this morning finds Republicans have moved to their largest lead of the year yet, with fully half of registered voters saying they favor the GOP candidate on the generic congressional ballot.
Gallup says the new results (50-43, with Republicans gaining another point in the last week) indicate the GOP has snuffed a brief period of Democrat momentum last month. Gallup’s polling occurred Aug. 9-15, so it would include early reactions to the Democrat’s announced support for building a mosque near ground zero in New York City.
Gallup warns that the party of a president with less than 50% approval “tends to suffer heavy seat losses in midterm elections,” which come Nov. 2.
Yesterday we learned that Obama was well below the 50% approval threshold in the Gallup poll. According to Gallup, the average loss of seats in the House for the President’s party when his approval is that low during a midterm election year is 36.
That wouldn’t be enough for Republicans to take back the House, but remember that number is just the average. I’m expecting this to be an above-average year.Tags: election 2010, gallup, polls