Republicans Post Largest Lead Ever On Gallup’s Generic Ballot
Spin from the primary elections had it that Republican momentum was failing because Republican Tim Burns, who was running in a race to replace the deceased Rep. Jack Murtha, lost. I pointed out at the time that a Republican loss in a Democrat district in a special election that appeared on the same ballot of a much-contested Democrat primary race between Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak was hardly indicative of much of anything, but the narrative has been that it represented Republican under-performance.
But that narrative is going to prove harder to shape as polls indicate continued Republican momentum:
Gallup’s generic polling shows the number of voters saying that they would vote for Republicans rising three points from last week, while the number saying they will vote for Democrats dropped four points. The 49%-43% lead for the Republicans is the largest that the pollster has ever recorded for the party. Moreover, Democratic enthusiasm for voting this fall fell a point, while enthusiasm among Republicans stayed about fifteen points higher. This indicates an even wider lead for Republicans once Gallup imposes a likely voter screen this fall.
Of course, generic polls can be misleading because voters don’t cast their ballots for generic candidates. It’s going to be Republicans with names and resumes and voting records who have to win come November.
But this is more evidence for something I’ve been saying since the 2006 elections. Namely, that Democrats didn’t win because America was turning to liberalism. Democrats won by default because they were the only available alternative to Republicans with whom the American public was dissatisfied. Now I think Republicans are benefiting from the same sort of backlash against Democrats.
That doesn’t mean the public in general is embracing Republicans again. I think it means the whipsawing back and forth between the two parties we’ve been seeing over the last few years is going ton continue until one or both start paying attention to what Americans really want.
Which is limited, fiscally responsible government.
Tags: democrats, election 2010, gallup, polls, republicans
