Republicans Can Lose More Than Half Of In-Play Seats And Still Take The House
Republicans need just 39 seats to re-take a majority in the House. According to Politico there are now 99 House seats in play nationwide, or 2.5 times the number Republicans need.
With two weeks remaining until Election Day, the political map has expanded to put Democrats on the run across the country – with 99 Democratic-held House seats now in play, according to a POLITICO analysis, and Republicans well in reach of retaking the House.
It’s a dramatic departure from the outlook one year ago – and a broader landscape than even just prior to the summer congressional recess. As recently as early September, many Republicans were hesitant to talk about winning a majority for fear of overreaching. …
The number of Democrats in danger is more than double the 39 seats Republicans need to seize control of the House. It reflects an elastic electoral environment that favors the GOP by every measure: money, momentum and mood of the country — in this case, sour on Democratic incumbents.
For Democrats, a deteriorating political environment – unemployment high, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings low — has been exacerbated by the presence of cash-flush, independent conservative groups that have poured huge sums of money into races.
Meanwhile, per Gallup, Republicans hold a five point lead over Democrats among registered voters and anywhere from a 11 – 17 point lead among likely voters depending on the turnout modeling:
Republicans continue to hold a commanding lead among likely voters on a generic congressional ballot, according to a new Gallup survey.
The GOP holds a 5 percent lead among registered voters and a lead among likely voters of 11 points or 17 points, depending on the turnout model.
Among registered voters, the GOP lead has increased by 2 percentage points in just the last week, jumping to a 48-to-43 percent margin.
If turnout is typical – around 40 percent – Gallup gauges that Republicans hold a lead of 17 percentage points. If turnout is higher than normal, the GOP has an 11 percent lead.
Of course, the question remains, are Republicans winning because they’re winning over voters or is this just a large-scale rejection of Democrats and their liberal policies?
I’m not convinced that the public is all that ready to embrace leadership from either party, and that these relatively rapid turn-abouts from Republican to Demcorat and back to Republican majorities are a symptom of that.
Republicans may win big this fall, and they may even win big again in 2012, but if they’re not ready for some substantive changes from Washington politics as usual (as much of a cliche as that is) their majority will last about as long as the Democrat majority has.
Tags: election 2010, gallup, polls
