Rasmussen: Obama Would Be In A Tight Election Race With Either Romney Or Palin

Normally these polls aren’t very interesting to me. We are way too far out for them to really have any meaning. Heck, Obama himself hasn’t even been in office for 200 days yet. But it is interesting to see a President who is still so new, and should still be enjoying a positive glow from his election, already polling to closely to to potential challengers in 2012.
I would have expected him to have a big lead at this point.

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%.
In both match-ups, seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, with three percent (3%) undecided.
Palin is second only to Romney as the presidential candidate Republican voters say right now that they’ll vote for in 2012 state GOP primaries. But she’s also one of two candidates they least hope wins the party’s nomination.

What is perhaps even bigger than this, though, is the large number of people who would support Sarah Palin running as an independent even if she didn’t get the GOP nomination.

Just 21% of voters nationwide say Palin should run as an independent if she loses the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. Sixty-three percent (63%) say the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee should not run as an independent. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

Rasmussen says that “just” 21% want her to run as an independent, but that’s still a big number. One in five voters. What’s more, another 16% are undecided. That adds up to 36% of poll respondents who either would support Palin as an independent or might support her.
As a friend told me today, “that seems ridiculously high.” Indeed, it’s surprising to me even as a Palin supporter. Though, to be honest, while I think she’d make a good President she hasn’t been my first choice for 2012. Sanford was, before he went hiking. And now I’m still not sure that Palin would be my first pick. I’m waiting to see who else might get into the race.
But there’s no doubt that Palin has an incredible amount of support behind her. Even if she doesn’t have quite enough to secure the nomination for herself, or perhaps run as an independent, she’ll certainly have enough to make or break someone else’s bid.