The polling is all over the map, but I think the consensus (backed up here by Rasmussen) is “it’s really, really close.”
The Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election has gotten tighter, but the general dynamics remain the same.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley attracting 49% of the vote while her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, picks up 47%.
The partisan breakdowns seem to favor Brown, with his Republicans supporting him in larger numbers than Democrats are supporting Coakley. Plus, Brown is taking independents from Coakley by a 2 – 1 margin.
Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%. To be clear, this lead is among unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the special election.
I’ll be honest: My hear says Brown can win this. My head says Massachusetts voters aren’t going to replace a Kennedy with a Republican who will kill the health care bill if put in office.