Yes, Pomeroy is a nine-term incumbent. No, it wouldn’t be good to underestimate the electoral prowess of anyone who has stayed in Congress for that long and who has Pomeroy’s connections to big, special interest money. But these polls showing Pomeroy significantly underwater to Berg are becoming…positively routine.
Republican challenger Rick Berg continues to hold a modest advantage again this month in his contest with Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy for North Dakota’s only House seat.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Dakota shows Berg with 51% support to Pomeroy’s 44%. Just one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided.
51% is just one point below Berg’s highest showing at 52%, though 44% is also just one point shy of Pomeroy’s biggest showing in this poll which was 45%. What does that mean?
The race is tightening. People are making up their minds. And Pomeroy is still losing.
For an indication of just how big this is, remember that Pomeroy won re-election in 2008 with 62% of the vote.
The poll was conducted June 15th – 16th, which was right around the time news broke that Pomeroy was part of an investigation into fundraising by the Office of Congressional Ethics. It’s unlikely that many of the poll respondents were aware of the investigation due to the delay in reporting it by the North Dakota media. So, Pomeroy’s position may actually be worse right now than this poll indicates.
Now, question is, how will the states newspaper editorialist and Democrat letter-to-the-editor writers spin this? Will they again say it’s too early for these polls to matter? Will they suggest that the Rasmussen poll sample is too small? That Rasmussen polls are, despite a firm track record for accuracy, skewed in favor of Berg?
Take your pick; I’m sure we’ll hear all the excuses. But the simple truth is that for going on half a year, Rick Berg has held a steady and substantial leader of Earl Pomeroy.
I don’t care what anyone tries to tell you, that matters.