Poll: Cramer Dominating House Race, Measures 2 And 4 Losing

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Written By:
Rob Port

Jun 10, 2012
2:45pm

The Valley News Live/KFYR polling is the only reliable polling being done in advance of the primary election (I don’t think anyone should be talking the Forum Communications polling seriously). After showing a tie in the state’s Senate race, they’re out today with polling showing Kevin Cramer dominating both primary opponent Brian Kalk but Democrat general election opponent Pam Gulleson as well:

A Valley News Live/KFYR-TV Poll show Republican Kevin Cramer is the front-runner in the race to replace Rick Berg in the US House of Representatives.

Our poll, conducted less than a week before Tuesday’s North Dakota primary indicates Cramer leads his GOP primary opponent Brian Kalk by 60%-21% and also holds a comfortable 49%-35% advantage over Democrat Pam Gulleson in the general election race.

Kalk surprised a lot of observers by pulling even with Cramer in fundraising in the last reporting period, and he got a bit of a boost when incumbent Representative Rick Berg (who is running for the Senate) endorsed him, but Cramer is clearly leading in the race. And Gulleson, despite rising more money than both Kalk and Cramer, hasn’t shown any evidence to date that she can win the race.

The poll also included some painful results for supporters of Measures 2 and 4:

Measure 2, which would eliminate a variety of local taxes but require the state to replace lost revenue, is currently being rejected by an overwhelming 70% of state voters.

Meanwhile, Measure 4, which would allow the University of North Dakota to drop the Fighting Sioux nickname and logo, is supported by a 59% majority statewide and looks likely to pass. It is worth noting the measure has much more support in Cass County and Eastern North Dakota that in the Bismarck/Mandan area or the rest of Western North Dakota.

The polling on the ballot measures, unlike the woefully incompetent Forum Communications polling, includes undecideds and appears to be good data.

Tough news for those support those ballot measures.

Update: In response to the poll, the Gulleson campaign released this statement from the candidate:

Today’s poll confirmed what we’ve been saying for a long time – Pam’s name I.D. is continuing to grow, and the number of undecided voters in this race is substantial. Those undecided voters, who are sick of politicians who care more about partisan bickering than actually getting the job done, are increasingly supporting Pam Gulleson. She is the one candidate in the race who is committed to putting North Dakota first and providing independent leadership in Congress.

Just to be clear, even if every single undecided in the race went to Gulleson she’d still be losing to Cramer, though within the margin of error of the poll.

But it’s not likely that Gulleson is going to get every undecided, particularly after the primary race between Kalk and Cramer is decided.