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Thursday, June 21, 2007

Outmigration Has Cost North Dakota $1 Billion Since 1993?

I guess, according to some study:

Since 1993, North Dakota has lost $1 billion in net taxable income as a direct result of migration. From 1993 through 2006, people moving to North Dakota brought with them $6.1 billion in taxable income, while people moving out of the state took with them $7.1 billion.

This month’s “Economic Brief,” a monthly publication from the North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University, focuses on the analysis of federal individual income tax returns from the past 14 years. These records reveal that North Dakota has experienced a continued loss of taxable income as a direct result of migration.

First, I wouldn’t call this a “continued” loss of taxable income.  This same study was conducted last year for the years 1993 - 2005 and that study showed that North Dakota “lost” $1 billion in taxes.  So, as near as I can tell, even if you buy into this idea of “lost” tax income you still have to admit that we didn’t lose any ground over the last year.  More evidence that the outmigration trend is reversing itself.

Second, last year the state already had a half billion dollar budget surplus (until the legislature spent it all, unfortunately).  Clearly the state is already taking in more tax revenue than it needs.  So what do we care about losing $1 billion over thirteen years?  Big deal.  The state has more tax revenue than it needs right now.

Third, the idea that people who left North Dakota took some of the state’s money with them is ridiculous on its face.  Government collects money from citizens in exchange for performing certain functions (keeping up roads, running the court system, etc.  That money belongs to the citizens, it does not belong to the government thus the government is not “losing” money when people leave.  People are simply paying taxes elsewhere.

Fourth, all this hand-wringing over outmigration is silly.  As I’ve posted before, it’s a self-correcting problem.  Outmigration was caused by changes in North Dakota’s primary industry: agriculture.  As new farming technology and methods have evolved over the last few decades farming North Dakota’s land has required fewer and fewer people.  The people who were no longer needed in farming have had to move to other fields of work (and a lot of times other states as well) to find work to provide for themselves and their families.  This is the genesis of the outmigration issue, and there’s not really a lot we can do about it.  Certainly we aren’t going to roll back ag technology so that farming employs more people in the state, it’s just something we have to live with.

Over time, as more people leave, the labor force will shrink back down to a size where everyone can find the jobs they want here in North Dakota and outmigration will halt, and probably even reverse (as census data and even the study above seem to indicate).  Something which probably comes as heresy to those who think that North Dakota needs to pass all sorts of laws and spend all sorts of tax money to counter outmigration, but it is the simple truth. 

It’s not really anything we can fix and it isn’t really that big of a problem anyway. 

Comments

Avatar for brad

Rob-

while I pretty much agree with everything you wrote..I have to point out a few things ND could have easily done in the ag. industry/business...that may have had significant impact....I believe (imho) that it is due to a lack of progressive leadership that has slowed economic growth.

case in point.
Ethanol.
late 70’s several ND farmer/business men invested to create some of the nations first ethanol plants.  Some assistance was there from the state, but bascially zero tax breaks and virtually no promotion of the enterprise.  Lack of raw product was not a problem.  Lack of state driven assistance to bring the product to market was.....ie...they were ahead of their time and the plants went bankrupt and sat idol for many years......UNTIL ADM (archer daniels midland....supermarket to the world) subsidized by federal dollars (republican sponsored grants and tax breaks) purchased said bankrupt ethanol plants and started them back up...utilizing local labor at slightly above minimum wage salaries and the raw ND grown product is turned into ethanol and shipped out of state.

case in point #2
While a number of ND oil companies are purchasing oil rights as fast as possible...most are from out of state...no restrictions are in place....no assistance is in place for in state companies..when current entrepeneurs (sp) seek assistance in creating oil refinery sights....little state assistance is available...thus oil is pulled from the ground and shipped out of state.

case in point #3
Beans....we grow some of the best beans on the planet.  Ask Taco Bell they purchase trainloads for processing out of state.  Wheat?  mostly out of state processing...sugar?  in state!!  bravo ND

we have a bad habit of creating the raw material and giving it away.... whether it is an agricultural product or the mind of our young people....we produce it and send it away.

are the republicans in state gov. to blame?  I don’t know, but they have held the reigns for a very, very long time. 

Our salaries rank near the bottom in the nation, while our products rank near the top.  What exactly are we missing???  We have amazing people.  We have the richest soil (RR Valley) in the US...Throw a seed in the ground and you have to run so the plant doesn’t grow up your pant leg....why can we not take our products all the way to market???

I fear the wind energy will be the next “raping” of ND.  We are number 2 or 3 in wind in the nation...we have the technology.  We create the turbines (LM Glass fiber) We have the land...we lack the Transmission lines (which are very, very expensive like $10,000 per foot or something nearly as insane)
We will probably allow an outside source to run the transmission lines into our state and suck the wind energy right out.......This topic alone is so major it is nearly incomprehensible. 

We have to invest in our future.  We have to invest in our people.

brad on June 21, 2007 at 07:40 pm

Gee, North Dakota taxes income of families almost 90% MORE than the federal government does!
Why would anyone want to leave such an efficiently run state?
I plan on taking all my unrealized capital gains and moving far away from the greedy, lazy, inept ND bureaucrats!

Kevin on June 21, 2007 at 08:14 pm

Brad, you really don’t get economics do you?


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


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The Whistler on June 21, 2007 at 08:26 pm
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late 70’s several ND farmer/business men invested to create some of the nations first ethanol plants.  Some assistance was there from the state, but bascially zero tax breaks and virtually no promotion of the enterprise.  Lack of raw product was not a problem.  Lack of state driven assistance to bring the product to market was.....ie...they were ahead of their time and the plants went bankrupt and sat idol for many years......UNTIL ADM (archer daniels midland....supermarket to the world) subsidized by federal dollars (republican sponsored grants and tax breaks) purchased said bankrupt ethanol plants and started them back up...utilizing local labor at slightly above minimum wage salaries and the raw ND grown product is turned into ethanol and shipped out of state.

I fail to see how it is in the best interest of North Dakota to promote a product that, without subsidy and mandates for it’s use, is unmarketable.

While a number of ND oil companies are purchasing oil rights as fast as possible...most are from out of state...no restrictions are in place....no assistance is in place for in state companies..when current entrepeneurs (sp) seek assistance in creating oil refinery sights....little state assistance is available...thus oil is pulled from the ground and shipped out of state.

I really don’t see where it matters that these oil producers are from out of state.  Do you know how much money they spend in state?  Most of the sales tax windfall the state enjoyed over the last few years was driven by the oil boom.  The oil companies employ a lot of North Dakotans, and they also pay a lot of taxes.  I really don’t see what your justification is for restricting them when the economic activity they spur in the state is a win-win-win situation for us.

Beans....we grow some of the best beans on the planet.  Ask Taco Bell they purchase trainloads for processing out of state.  Wheat?  mostly out of state processing...sugar?  in state!!  bravo ND

I suspect that a lot of crops are processed out of state for cost efficiency reasons.  If we force companies to process these crops in state it means the end product is more expensive.  Which drives down demand for the product and, ultimately, the raw goods in North Dakota.

Our salaries rank near the bottom in the nation, while our products rank near the top.  What exactly are we missing???

Nothing.  Our salaries are low, but so is our cost of living.  Our quality of life is just as high as the rest of the nation, so we’re not missing a thing.

I fear the wind energy will be the next “raping” of ND.  We are number 2 or 3 in wind in the nation...we have the technology.  We create the turbines (LM Glass fiber) We have the land...we lack the Transmission lines (which are very, very expensive like $10,000 per foot or something nearly as insane)
We will probably allow an outside source to run the transmission lines into our state and suck the wind energy right out.......This topic alone is so major it is nearly incomprehensible.

Well isn’t exporting energy exactly what ND power producers should want to do?  I mean, if we can’t use all of our own power why should it stay here?

And wind energy is a crock.  Because there tends not to be a lot of wind at peak times of energy consumption (when it’s really hot or really cold) there has to be a backup baseline power source available to pick up the slack lest we all face blackouts.

But the problem is that you can’t just switch a power plant on and off as needed, so the plan has to operate all the time anyway.  So why even bother with the wind in the first place?

The real answer to energy problems is nuclear power, but most on the left don’t want to hear that.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on June 21, 2007 at 08:27 pm

What good would it do to buy locally produced wind power versus hydroelectric power from Canadia?

I see no difference.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


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The Whistler on June 21, 2007 at 08:33 pm

Lack of state driven assistance to bring the product to market was....

No, brad, it was(and still is) lack of demand for ethanol.  It’s a vastly inferior motor fuel, and we don’t want it.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on June 21, 2007 at 09:55 pm

Third, the idea that people who left North Dakota took some of the state’s money with them is ridiculous on its face.  Government collects money from citizens in exchange for performing certain functions (keeping up roads, running the court system, etc.  That money belongs to the citizens, it does not belong to the government thus the government is not “losing” money when people leave.  People are simply paying taxes elsewhere.

Rob,

Two words - college education.  College education is highly subsidized by the state taxpayers.  When graduates leave the state because they have $20,000+ in student debt and actually want to work in their field and pay that off, they are absolutely taking the subsidy with them. 

The taxpayers are certainly subsidizing the workforce of other states by subsidizing college education and retaining burdensome tax policies that prevent jobs for those graduates from being created. 

Outmigration was caused by changes in North Dakota’s primary industry: agriculture.  As new farming technology and methods have evolved over the last few decades farming North Dakota’s land has required fewer and fewer people.

How many farm kids that would have taken over the family farm have left?  The VAST majority of young people leaving the state are recent college graduates trying to find a job they want to do at a wage that will allow them to maintain their debt load without defaulting.

Our salaries are low, but so is our cost of living.  Our quality of life is just as high as the rest of the nation, so we’re not missing a thing.

The cost of living argument is a straw-man fallacy.  The fact that North Dakota graduates carry higher debt than all but 2 states (Iowa and New Hampshire) and that there are simply not enough jobs in fields that those graduates studied in the state counteract the so-called “low cost of living.”

Also the cost of living argument is not quite accurate as food is typically 30% higher in North Dakota compared to the rest of the country (the exception being Beef.)

The point is, North Dakota needs a better tax climate so that more than retail businesses want to move here.  The taxpayers are subsidizing students who are studying fields that do not exist in this state - at least not to the number that the degrees are being handed out.  That needs to change, and it will change once the tax code is corrected to attract new industries beyond retail and energy. 

Diversification is the key.  But the business climate is getting in the way of that.  As a result, people leave.

Dustin Gawrylow on June 22, 2007 at 02:38 am
Avatar for brad

There are a bunch of places where I don’t agree.

Cost of living lower in ND?
True I can buy a home in Velva cheaper than I can in mpls.  However in Fargo and Grand Forks the cost of living is quite high.

you completely missed my point on the Ag based issues.  Which means I was unclear.

my point was/is; If we could learn to take the product from start to finish we, as a state could reap considerable benefit. We lack foresight in some major areas....I really don’t understand why that is not “common ground” for this discussion.  If we, as a state, do not feel that we need to do better, to improve to change and evolve...yikes..?!?!?

Wind: Until we learn to store for use at peak times it would be used AND SOLD as an “off peak” alternative.  Studies show wind approx 320 days per year...obviously some days more wind than others, but they are able to “gear up or gear down” to harness energy.  Yes we would want to sell it out of state. He who owns the transmission lines will reap the prof.

I can’t argue with you about ethanol as a fuel.  We do know that corn prices have gone through the roof throughout the upper midwest as ethanol plants are buying up the crop...so demand is increasing…
(I would be remiss not to mention big oil lobbyists doing all they can to stop the funding of R and D in bio-fuels....) Just as Hydrogen fuel cells need R &D so do bio fuels…

I find so many comments short-sighted.  Ethanol is no good we don’t want it.???

The production of Ethanol employs, probably 1000 North dakotans… maybe more...it is not worth developing? of course it is..we will also see more and more corn produced this year as the price is more than triple for a bushel of corn..(the economic downside is the farmer that needs to purchase feed corn is getting hosed and will have to find a different resource)

Why use wind when we can buy hydro from Canada?…
why should we develop a clean, unlimited resource of energy that has very limited impact on enviornment?

Wind energy, if done correctly could be to the state what Sugar is to the RR Valley....

brad on June 22, 2007 at 04:43 am
Avatar for brad

FYI
last night congress passed a bill on fuel efficiency standards the “ten in ten” bill....increase mpg to a minimum of 35 mpg on all vehicles by 2020
.
The bill also seeks to increase Ethanol production by a minimum of 7X over the next 10 years.  “This will be a huge boost to Ethanol producers in the coming years”

brad on June 22, 2007 at 05:12 am

(I would be remiss not to mention big oil lobbyists doing all they can to stop the funding of R and D in bio-fuels....) Just as Hydrogen fuel cells
need R &D so do bio fuels…

If they really “needed” R&D, private capital would be flowing there, and it’s not.  No lobbyists can affect private capital, only money confiscated from the private sector by govt.  That is the error in your thinking.  You want to use govt to force ethanol down our throats, when the public isn’t choosing it on a level playing field.  Hell, the public isn’t even choosing it on the govt-rigged playing field.  The govt doesn’t create viable markets, demand does.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on June 22, 2007 at 07:21 am

Two words - college education.  College education is highly subsidized by the state taxpayers.  When graduates leave the state because they have $20,000+ in student debt and actually want to work in their field and pay that off, they are absolutely taking the subsidy with them.

I look at it that we are preparing our young people to do what they want to do. If they want to live outside of the state that’s their call.  I’m glad we’re giving them that chance.

Our responsibility is to give them choices, not limit their choices.

The fact that North Dakota graduates carry higher debt than all but 2 states (Iowa and New Hampshire)

Now you’re whining.  First of all I have a hard time believing that statistic in that our education is still somewhat cheap.  Secondly your solution is likely more free money which is why we have sky high tuition and part-time state workers making 6 figures.

The solution to the problem is not to limit choices of young people which get’s to your good point.

The point is, North Dakota needs a better tax climate so that more than retail businesses want to move here.

I agree completely.  North Dakota is fairly hostile to businesses with their tax code and the amount of regulations they have.

Your group is attempting to cut the corporate tax rate in half.  I say that’s a great step but we should cut it out altogether.

Of course the last goofy legislature did a terrible job towards attracting business.  With all of their spending they are locking in higher and higher tax rates to keep up with the bureaucrats every increasing lifestyle demands.

We also need to look at every business regulation and only keep those with a compelling need.  We also should streamline what we do keep. 

Brad seems to demand business subsidies.  The problem is that that generally helps on small group without helping out the larger community or state.  What you wind up with is some people with more money and others with less.  Since people would spend their money more efficiently themselves the entire economy loses.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


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The Whistler on June 22, 2007 at 08:19 am
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Dustin, you know how I feel about subsidizing things.  I don’t think college tuition should be subsidized any more than oil companies should.  If we quit subsidizing college tuition would go down.

The root of the outmigration problem is exactly as I said: A contraction in the number of jobs the ag industry needs.  Kids are leaving the farms because there aren’t jobs for them on those farms.  They’re going to college, and yes when they’re coming out they aren’t finding the jobs they need because our economy is still in the midst of a transition.

So they leave.

I agree that cutting taxes is the best way to cure the problem.  Really the only thing we can do about the problem.

What we don’t need to do is spend more tax dollars on subsidies for businesses or college students, and we certainly don’t need any more tax dollars on economic development schemes which rarely do anything.

We just need to create a more business-friendly environment by cutting taxes and then wait for the outmigration change to reverse itself.  Which it already is, clearly.  Though that could be spurred by more tax relief.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on June 22, 2007 at 08:27 am

I don’t think college tuition should be subsidized any more than oil companies should.

Dustin’s commentary is a perfect example of how socialism creeps into our society through subsidies.  When the govt subsidizes something, it then feels entitled to control it, and to control everything related to it.  Because it subsidizes college educations, then it might feel entitled to control what individuals do with that subsidized education.  See how it works?  That’s how socialized healthcare creates the “entitlement” to tell us what to eat and what not to eat, wear seatbelts and helmets, and all the rest.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on June 22, 2007 at 08:35 am
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