Ouch: Mason-Dixon Poll Shows Heitkamp, Berg Tied

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Written By:
Rob Port

Jun 7, 2012
6:36pm

A Mason-Dixon poll, commissioned by KVLY and KFYR television, shows Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Republican Rick Berg in an effective tie. The headline being thrown around is “Heitkamp leads Berg,” but with the margin of error it’s pretty much a tie.

Even so, this ought to send a shiver down the collective backbones of North Dakota Republicans.

The latest polling in the North Dakota U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Heidi Heitkamp holding a very slim lead over likely Republican nominee Rick Berg. Just 7% of likely November voters in our polls say they have not yet made up their minds. The poll was conducted for KVLY and KFYR Television by Mason-Dixon Polling Group.

QUESTION: If the 2012 election for North Dakota’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Heidi Heitkamp, the Democrat, and Rick Berg, the Republican?

HEITKAMP 47%
BERG 46%
UNDECIDED 7%

A total of 625 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

QUESTION: If the 2012 election for North Dakota’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Heidi Heitkamp, the Democrat, and Duane Sand, the Republican?

HEITKAMP 46%
SAND 38%
UNDECIDED 16%

Here’s a description of the methodology.

We can point to some things that would skew this Heitkamp’s way. It’s early, and Berg is still facing a primary challenger, and so far Heitkamp has been spending a lot of money on her campaign while Berg hasn’t even really begun to campaign yet.

But even so, this race shouldn’t be this close. Heitkamp hasn’t won a race in the state since the 1990′s, and she’s moved way to the left of North Dakota votes since then.

And maybe that’s the problem. Maybe most North Dakotans are still remembering the 1990′s-era Heitkamp, and haven’t been introduced yet to the modern Heidi Heitkamp.

Update: In related news, this does prove just how bad the Forum Communications polling was.

Update: I missed this, but per the comments, the poll refers to “registered voters.” But there are no “registered voters” in ND. We don’t have registered voters. Not sure if that makes any difference or not, but it’s either sloppy polling or sloppy reporting.