Obama’s Sinking Ship

Is Obama out? We’re far too far away from election day to say, and certainly with most of the media on Obama’s side anything can happen, but I wouldn’t say that Obama’s been doing well. As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution points out:

Democrats know something, and desperation is setting in. They have a novice campaigner who wanders off message. With every advantage in the primaries, Obama couldn’t win the big states — New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania — against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him. She could never risk alienating the base she’ll need in 2012; John McCain and Sarah Palin have no such constraints — hence the panic.
For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned…
Obama will lose because with less than two months remaining voters won’t be able to get comfortable with him. He can’t stay on message and he can’t avoid sending signals that interfere with the message when he does.
McCain, on the other hand, has been superb going back at least to Obama’s European tour. Mainstream America is comfortable with him and, with Palin’s selection, conservatives who had their doubts are onboard. The GOP is energized and suddenly an unwinnable election is reversed.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Obama will lose. Again, we’re an eternity from the election in campaign time, and a lot can happen. But even so, McCain has gained 16 points among independent voters according to a Fox News poll. McCain is leading by 20 in North Carolina. Obama’s lead in the reliably-blue Washington is down to two points, and McCain has leads in swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Even the Congressional races are starting to look good for Republicans, and to top it all off Obama’s vaunted fund raising prowess seems to be faltering.
Unless Obama does something new, and by that I mean something other than smearing Sarah Palin and mocking McCain’s disabilities, he’s going to lose this race by Walter Mondale proportions.

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  • http://sayanythingblog.com/readers/entry/white_folks_greed_runs_a_world_in_ Joel

    Votetheday,Proof Rob, Dougee

    You’ve got to see this [as Nunez likes to say] video proof of the Palin Affect in Europe.

    Palinmania is spreading all over the world – everybody has their opinion on the new political celebrity of US.
    VoteTheDay.com on September 14, 2008 at 09:59 am

    As proof that “Palinmania is spreading all over the world,” check out this video:

    Behind The Scenes At The Obama Camp

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    he’s going to lose this race by Walter Mondale proportions.

    Minnesota’s been carrying a grudge over that for 24 year now. Could this be the year they get over it. :)

    For those of you that don’t remember the national press was every bit in the bag for Mondale (actually anti-Reagan) as they are in for Obama today.

    Of course McCain’s no Reagan so I look for a close election.

  • http://proof-proofpositive.blogspot.com/ proof_positive

    pride cometh before a fall,

    Actually,

    Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.

    -Proverbs 16:18

    I think both “pride” and “haughty spirit” would fit the Obama campaign!

  • http://www.votetheday.com/ VoteTheDay.com

    Democrats have a puzzle with a code name “Palin Problem”. They have to solve it, and to do it effectively, because the prize is the White House.
    Sarah is everywhere these days. No matter, if there are negative responses, rumors and resentments; or praises, support and encouragements. She filled media, and not only in America. Palinmania is spreading all over the world – everybody has their opinion on the new political celebrity of US.
    The Palin avalanche is winning against Obama inundation. How should Democrats defeat her? Would it be better just keep their line of campaign and ignore populist idol of Republicans? Or should they put out their claws, oppose her and show her the real politics? http://www.votetheday.com/polls/to-defeat-palin-260/ – give advice to Democrats, if you think there still is an effective advice for them…

  • http://proof-proofpositive.blogspot.com/ proof_positive

    He reached the $66 million mark with help from more than a half million new donors.

    Wonder how many of those new donors are US residents? Atlas Shrugs has examined some of Obama’s contributions which seem to come out in uneven dollar/ cent figures, apparently after the exchange rate from foreign currencies to dollars.

    The fact that large infusions of cash may be coming into Obama’s campaign might just reflect his popularity with the Tony Rezkos of the world, and foreign citizens whose interests do not necessarily coincide with those of the American people, not the American public.

  • http://forums.kikizo.com/ Eddie_the_Hated

    No Reagan indeed, but he’ll do for the next 4 years until we can find a more suitable candidate.

    Got a question for you all. Do we have any information on the correlation between financing, and financial lead and electoral success? Historically speaking, does the bigger spender/advertiser have a political lead?

  • Mickey

    It is interesting how the Democrats have swift boated themselves with Barry’s inexperience. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. Even the recent conventions were a gift from the over zealous Obamatrons. Ordinarily, the order in which the parties hold their Conventions is determined by which party holds the White House. The incumbent party always goes first. The contending party always goes second.

    Would McCain have picked Palin if he’d had to choose first?

    Would Obama have picked Hillary Clinton if he’d had the luxury of waiting till McCain had made his choice?

    Crucial to the advantages McCain reaped from the order of the Conventions was the fact that they were held back-to-back. A Convention bounce needs time to develop. No time, no bounce. Obama got neither. McCain got both.

    And the Barry gaff machine takes a hit from another one of its own torpedoes.

  • http://www.wethepeopleforum.com/forum/forums.asp golfmann

    and “haughty spirit” would fit the Obama campaign!

    and John F Kerry, of course :)

  • Gary Gulrud

    “I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Obama will lose.”

    I don’t know Rob, if Johnny Mac had a stroke, the O would bungle the opportunity. Palin alone can crush His ticket.

  • http://dougeefargo.blogspot.com/ dougee

    The $66 million in August was second in value to $55 million from February? Looks like AP might need to get someone with some math skills to help them out…

  • http://proof-proofpositive.blogspot.com/ proof_positive

    Powerline has this:

    Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has John McCain and Obama dead even in Minnesota, each with 45 percent of the vote. This is a stark reversal from May, when Obama led by 13 points.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com/readers/entry/white_folks_greed_runs_a_world_in_ Joel

    All I hear now is ..the chirping of crickets.

  • Neiman

    It is looking promising, but pride cometh before a fall, so be aware that a couple of months is an eternity in politics. The out party, especially after 8 years of an unpopular president still has the advantage. I fear McCain will have the facts in the debates, Obama the style/looks and like Kennedy versus Nixon in 1960, McCain could win on radio and lose in television.

    Let’s keep hope alive (Jesse’s phrase) and yet don’t get carried away, there are still a few poles on this racetrack to cross before the finish line.

  • bustoff

    Obama’s total for August was almost $20 million more than the $47 million Republican rival John McCain raised last month.

    The problem is that Obama is spending his (in reality, other people’s) campaign money like a drunken sailor. Or a Democrat. Let’s have another celebrity self-tribute in Berlin. Let’s set up another dazzling Roman Coliseum to give a speech from. Obama’s campaign debt is going to dwarf Hillary’s by the time this is all over.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com/readers/author/realitybasedbob/ realitybasedbob

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign announced Sunday that it raised $66 million in August, marking another record fundraising month for the Democrat. The August total was second to the $55 million Obama raised last February.

    He reached the $66 million mark with help from more than a half million new donors.

    Obama’s total for August was almost $20 million more than the $47 million Republican rival John McCain raised last month.

  • MM

    I am working my ass off here in Colorado’s 7th. I am seeing very positive things develop, especially since Sarah was choose.

  • http://proof-proofpositive.blogspot.com/ proof_positive

    and John F Kerry, of course

    Are you referring to the French-looking John Kerry? He served in Viet Nam. Did you know that?

  • sayanything-2407

    Wonder how many of those new donors are US residents? Atlas Shrugs has examined some of Obama’s contributions which seem to come out in uneven dollar/ cent figures, apparently after the exchange rate from foreign currencies to dollars.

    Is it legal to accept campaign donations from foriegn individuals?

    Just curious.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Ed Morrissey:

    While John McCain can only spend $84 million over the next two months after accepting that much from the public-financing system, it doesn’t cost him a dime to get it. The Obama campaign’s burn rate will be critical in determining whether he’s actually raising enough money to keep him ahead of McCain. If it costs him more than $20 million to raise that money, it’s essentially a wash — and the burn rate at Team O has been much higher than 30%. Their cash-on-hand numbers will probably tell a different story, as Obama would have to almost double McCain’s $84 million over the next two months just to stay even.

    Also, money isn’t everything. Obama’s campaign could go down as the richest campaign to never win an election.

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