Obama’s Flip-Flop Blowback

  •  July 12, 2008

Newsweek’s latest poll is an ugly
thing for Barack Obama.

His lead has shrunk considerably since Newsweek conducted their last
poll – Obama has dropped 11 points versus McCain in under a month.

Obama now leads 44 to 41, just within the margin of error. The poll slightly
oversamples Democrats to Republicans. However, this was a poll of registered
voters, not likely voters. Democratic registered voters typically show up in
smaller numbers than Republican registered voters, so this probably erodes Obama’s
support still further. The poll also oversampled women, who are even less likely
to actually go out and vote, and who support Obama in greater numbers to begin
with.

Considering that at this point in the election cycle the Democrat candidate
is usually way ahead of the Republican candidate (Kerry was ahead by about 9
points in 2004, Dukakis by 16 in 1988. Both lost the election) the Obama campaign
should be entering panic mode right about now.

How did this happen? Obama proved that he stands for absolutely nothing. His
major drop in the polls has come just after he has tried to rebrand himself
as a centrist. All he really did was prove that his views are as changeable
as the wind, and that all that hope and change stuff means nothing. All of his
flipflops on Iraq, campaign financing, FISA, the death penalty and so on show
that he is just another politician who will do and say anything for a vote.
It completely undercuts his image as an outsider purist untainted by business-as-usual
politics.


Crossposted from Ken McCracken

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  • http://www.kenmccracken.blogspot.com/ Ken McCracken

    Yep, the ‘Bradley Effect’.

    It is a good question as to how much that plays into the polling.

  • Gurn Blanchton

    Here’s a different interpretation…Follow the Money.

    Each candidate is on target to raise and spend half a billion. Where does most of the money go? Staff salaries, travel, and event planning are huge. After that (possibly before), it is airtime. Radio, TV, Cable, Internet. Current money is flowing to the battleground states. All the small MSM TV stations in Ohio, Florida, etc have all the add revenue they want. No need to hustle the local businesses for ad time. Small states like Kansas and Oregon, who are 99% in the bag for one or the other, do not get much of the pie.

    The more the media can make ‘every state a battleground state’, the more the easy money magically flows in. Thus, expect most polls to skew towards ‘within the margin of error’. Add the state and local election money into the mix and the money flows like wine. This ‘media made recession’ has not hurt the media business and will not touch them until November 5.

  • http://www.valleydeals.com/cgi-bin/board2/YaBB.pl Kevin

    Barry O will always over poll since respondents fear being thought of as racist if they don’t favor him.

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