Obama’s State-Level Approval Ratings Predicting A Big 2012 Loss?
This map (via Ace) is based on Obama’s state-by-state approval numbers from Gallup. It awards each state’s electoral votes to the President, or the Republican nominee, based on whether or not Obama has majority approval in that state.
As you can see, the outcome is bleak for Obama:
There are a lot of reasons to take this with a grain of salt. First, disapproval for Obama doesn’t necessarily translate into support for the Republican candidate especially when that candidate isn’t yet official. A lot of voters who might not approve of Obama’s record might still see him as a better option than Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. And let’s not rule out the ability of Republicans to alienate voters to an even greater degree than Obama has.
Second, a lot can change between now and election day, including the nation’s perception of the economy. If Americans feel like there the economy is in recovery, approval for Obama will go up.
But even with those caveats, I think this shows that the election is not Obama’s to lose. It’s his to try and win, and that’s going to be tough campaigning on his track record of huge government growth, skyrocketing deficits and a chronically stagnant economy.Tags: Barack Obama, election 2012