Obama Up By Three In North Dakota?

• September 4, 2008

I don’t think Obama can or will win North Dakota, but it is sort of hard to argue with these numbers:

A poll conducted from August 23-27 by DFM Research of 400 likely voters shows Obama leading 43% to 40% with 5% Other and 12% Unsure (margin of error +/- 5%).
This is the first ND Poll since February showing Obama Leading in North Dakota. (Real Clear Politics has McCain up +3, +1, and +6 in the last 3 polls and Obama up +4 in February)

A poll of 400 voters with a margin of error of 5% isn’t really a good statistical foundation. Frankly, it’s a statistical dartboard, but even so it does indicate that the race is close. Which is quite an accomplishment for Obama in a state that has only voted for three Democrat Presidents since 1914.
Of course, Obama’s lead is within the margin of error. And taken during the Democrat convention. And before McCain’s announcement of Palin as his running mate. I’d be willing to bet that another poll taken now would show McCain with a substantial lead.
I’d also be willing to bet that McCain takes North Dakota handily, just like a whole line of Republicans before him.

Tags: North Dakota News

http://Array tom

“up by three” =Dorgan,Conrad and Little Lord Pomeroy
Pomerdorgrad

Poll paid for by United Transportation Union, major contributor to delegation and legislative Dems. Wonder if the entire survey included other questions, perhaps for Pomeroy.

At first glance, it’s a small sample taken at a high-Dem period, but the numbers appear believable, with the undecideds/don’t know being much higher in the treasurer’s race than governor.
http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

Rob that number is weak N=400 is not very solid at all. If NOBAMA was leading why did he scale back his campaign in North Dakota. If it was an N=2000+ I would be more convinced. I all they have to do is sample a bunch of college students. It is also harvest season, so who is at home but probably NOBAMA supporters.
http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

I wonder if we could get the party leanings of the people sampled?
Why not sample more than 400. That isn’t a very big number.
http://dougeefargo.blogspot.com/ dougee

I can’t really see Obama winning North Dakota. I have heard from my friends that there is Obama stuff all over NDSU’s Memorial Union. Maybe it is good I am doing my co-op this semester so I don’t have to constantly be reminded of “The One”
http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

Poll paid for by United Transportation Union, major contributor to delegation and legislative Dems. Wonder if the entire survey included other questions, perhaps for Pomeroy.

At first glance, it’s a small sample taken at a high-Dem period, but the numbers appear believable, with the undecideds/don’t know being much higher in the treasurer’s race than governor.

Like I mentioned earlier this is a very small sample and I would be willing to bet that it over sampled democrats like all these other samples do.

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Obama Up By Three In North Dakota?

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