I don’t think Obama can or will win North Dakota, but it is sort of hard to argue with these numbers:
A poll conducted from August 23-27 by DFM Research of 400 likely voters shows Obama leading 43% to 40% with 5% Other and 12% Unsure (margin of error +/- 5%).
This is the first ND Poll since February showing Obama Leading in North Dakota. (Real Clear Politics has McCain up +3, +1, and +6 in the last 3 polls and Obama up +4 in February)
A poll of 400 voters with a margin of error of 5% isn’t really a good statistical foundation. Frankly, it’s a statistical dartboard, but even so it does indicate that the race is close. Which is quite an accomplishment for Obama in a state that has only voted for three Democrat Presidents since 1914.
Of course, Obama’s lead is within the margin of error. And taken during the Democrat convention. And before McCain’s announcement of Palin as his running mate. I’d be willing to bet that another poll taken now would show McCain with a substantial lead.
I’d also be willing to bet that McCain takes North Dakota handily, just like a whole line of Republicans before him.