North Korean Nuclear Shutdown Is For Real

The North Koreans have shut down their sole nuclear reactor, located at Yongbyon.
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei stated
today that "our inspectors are there. They verified the shutting down
of the reactor yesterday." The 10-person team of inspectors will work for
several days applying IAEA seals as the nuclear equipment cools off. The North
Koreans are 3 months late in implementing their end of the Denuclearization
Action Plan. According to that plan, the nuclear shutdown was to have begun
within 60 days of the agreement’s date.

The crux of the February 13, 2007 agreement among the six-party members is
as follows:

IV. During the period of the Initial Actions phase and the next phase – which
includes provision by the DPRK of a complete declaration of all nuclear programs
and disablement of all existing nuclear facilities, including graphite-moderated
reactors and reprocessing plant – economic, energy and humanitarian assistance
up to the equivalent of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil (HFO), including the
initial shipment equivalent to 50,000 tons of HFO, will be provided to the DPRK.

North Korea is required to account for all nuclear weapons, programs and nuclear
materials, leading to the eventual de-nuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula.
In return, North Korea gets fuel, humanitarian assistance, and steps towards
full diplomatic recognition and normalization with the U.S. – including removing
NoKo from the terms of the Trading
With The Enemy Act and removing them from the list
of states sponsoring terrorism.

Christopher R. Hill

On paper, this is an astounding and world-historic diplomatic victory
for the Bush administration, and especially for its chief architect, the indefatigable
Christopher Hill. Will this turn out to be a Neville Chamberlain-esque appeasment
deal gone awry? It could very well be: North Korea has a history of regarding
such deals as merely printed words without meaning. They violated the terms
of the much-ballyhooed 1994 Agreed Framework before the ink was even dry. North
Korea was a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which they also
egregiously violated. In short, a North Korean signature on an agreement means
exactly nothing. Yet North Korea is in desperate straits, with no fuel, little
help from China, and no friends anywhere in the world. Perhaps Kim Jong-Il really
does savor normalization and trade with the rest of the world. It is a very
encouraging sign.

There are lingering problems with this deal however, the least of which is
the fact that we have essentially bribed North Korea to shut down its program
with no guarantee it will actually happen. Another huge concern that National
Security Advisor Stephen Hadley raises is the fact that intelligence shows a
covert
uranium-enrichment program that does not rely on the Yongbyon facility.

Also, North Korea is demanding that it be removed from the list of nations
that sponsor terrorism, even though North Korea sponsors
terrorism:

North Korea has a long history of sponsoring terror and other international
provocations. In November 1987 North Korea bombed a (South) Korean Airline Boeing
707 in mid-flight, killing 115 people. In 1983 a bomb detonated in Rangoon,
Myanmar, minutes before South Korea’s president was to lay a wreath there.
The bomb killed 17 senior South Korean officials and wounded 14 others. There
have been innumerable bloody incursions into South Korea by North Korean forces,
and many attacks and attempted attacks on both South Koreans traveling abroad
and North Korean defectors. Lower-level violence is almost constant. Reportedly,
graduating from North Korean Special Forces training requires successfully entering
South Korea and committing an act of vandalism. (Since the Special Forces are
one of the only segments of North Korean society that eats enough, candidates
have great incentive to succeed.)

It seems that perhaps we are bending some of our principles here in order to
get this deal done, by ‘rewarding’ North Korea with goodies to do many things
they already agreed to do. Aren’t we training them like a dog that the way to
get the things they want is to piss on the linoleum? Turning a blind eye to
their past misdeeds, and pretending they do not sponsor terrorism likewise shows
that our ideals are fungible.

My fear is that we will once again be left holding an empty bag, with egg on
our face and our ethics compromised. If the deal works however – it may be a
tiny price to pay.

Crossposted from WILLisms.com