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Sunday, October 08, 2006

North Korea Tests A Nuke

That’s what the AP is reporting.

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country’s official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

“The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people,” KCNA said.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, citing defense officials.

We’ll need to wait for official confirmation as the state-run North Korean news agency is also the group of “reporters” who reported that Kim Jong-il got a hole-in-one on every hole the first time he played golf.

But still, all humor aside, if this happened this is serious business.  America and its allies need a strong and swift response.

Update: They apparently felt something in South Korea:

In Seoul a foreign ministry spokesman said South Korea’s intelligence agency has detected a 3.58-magnitude seismic tremor, following North Korea’s announcement of a nuclear test.

Strangely, though, South Korea’s army remains on normal alert.

Update:

More from the BBC:

North Korea said last week that it planned to test a nuclear weapon.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has called an emergency meeting of his government’s National Security Council.

A South Korean official said that there had been a grave change in the security situation on the peninsula.

Officials in South Korea have been quoted as saying that an explosion was detected in north Hamgyong province in North Korea.

Update:

The AP is reporting that the U.S. Geological Survey hasn’t detected any seismic activity on the Korean peninsula:

However, the U.S. Geological Survey said it hasn’t detected any seismic activity on the Korean peninsula in the past 48 hours of the type one might expect from a nuclear test.

Update: More from the AP:

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.

Update: Bloomberg is confirming that the SK President has convened a meeting of security advisers:

The South Korean presidential office began an emergency security meeting of its ministers at 11:30 a.m., according to officials at the presidential Blue House, the Foreign Ministry and the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Update: Allah at Hot Air notes that ABC has its news priorities straight:

image

He’s also saying Fox News has reported that China got a 20 minute heads up on the test.

Update: Here’s the USGS website showing seismic activity from monitors all over the globe.  Of particular interest is this reading from Inchon in South Korea.

Update: The Advertiser in Austalia is quoting South Korean defense officials as saying the test happened for sure.

Update: The next Secretary General of the United Nations is from South Korea.  I wonder how this episode will impact the way he approaches the duties of his office?  It’s also curious that the test happened just as Japan’s new hawkish Prime Minister was visiting South Korea.

Update: The Australian is reporting that a South Korean lawmaker has quoted intelligence reports which say that the test took place for sure in a tunnel near one of N. Korea’s nuclear plants.

This is all I have time for on this story tonight.  All I’ve got to say in summation is...thanks Bill Clinton.

Ken adds: A senior administration official has confirmed that it was indeed a nuclear test. 

Comments

Well, now we have a real issue on our hands here, don’t we.

Ken McCracken on October 8, 2006 at 06:34 pm
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We do.  The question is, what are we going to do about it?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on October 8, 2006 at 06:44 pm

I am not as concerned about North Korea possessing a nuke as I am about NoKo proliferating to places like Iran, Syria and so forth. I can only hope that China, which has an active Islamic terrorist movement in Xinjiang, takes this threat as seriously as the U.S. does.

Ken McCracken on October 8, 2006 at 06:56 pm
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China seems to acting appropriately so far...and I wonder what this move by NK will do for China and Russia’s stance on Iran.  Could move them in our direction.

Could.

But yes, proliferation is the problem.  You know that crazy little nutter in N. Korea would gladly sell a nuke to some terror organization looking to hit America or some other western target.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on October 8, 2006 at 07:01 pm

I would propose, at great expense to the international community and especially the U.S., compensating China for the enormous cost of opening its borders to NoKo, and letting all who want to leave to escape. The border there is already remarkably porous, it would be like the eastern bloc in 1989 all over again. Kim Jong-Il couldn’t stop it.

By the time the exodus was complete, Kim would be sitting by himself in Pyongyang singing “I’m so ronery.”

Ken McCracken on October 8, 2006 at 07:07 pm
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That would be a strategy that would work, but would China go along with it?  A porous border is one thing, an open policy of accepting N. Korea’s refugees is quite another.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on October 8, 2006 at 07:12 pm

Well, presumably a large number of refugess would be patriated to South Korea.

We’ll have to see if China goes along with more drastic measures here - Kim may have pushed even China beyond its breaking point here.

As AllahPundit pointed out, there hasn’t been a lot of love lately between NoKo and Beijing.

Ken McCracken on October 8, 2006 at 07:19 pm

Just wish that it had been an air blast.  Those are so much more interesting!  All ruined by a bunch of sissy environmental wackos worried about a little bit of strontium 90!

More seriously, the Soviet’s gave North Korea their breeder reactor in the 1980’s.  These reactors can easily be equipped to produce weapons-grade plutonium 239.  Plutonium bombs are much more ominous because you can make a lot of bombs with a relatively little fuel (typically a uranium bomb requires from as little as two tons of raw uranium ore or as much as seven tons depending on the design), and because once you’ve designed the bomb, you can scale them as big as you like.

Have you guys noticed how many people out there are blaming the US?  Rogue nations are well meaning, but apparently pushed to the brink by that nasty, poorly behaved United States.  GMAFB.

Carrick on October 8, 2006 at 08:12 pm

Plutonium is a much more plentiful fuel, but constructing an implosion-type plutonium device is a very difficult engineering feat, which the North Korean’s have apparently mastered, unfortunately.

Oh yes, of course it is the fault of the U.S., because everything bad that happens is quite naturally our fault.

What were you thinking, Carrick?

Ken McCracken on October 8, 2006 at 08:18 pm

Ken:

Plutonium is a much more plentiful fuel, but constructing an implosion-type plutonium device is a very difficult engineering feat, which the North Korean’s have apparently mastered, unfortunately. 

Apparently, it was a big deal in the 1940’s because of the timing issues.

Note such a big deal these days, unfortunately. And it’s “just” engineering, no real development, mostly off-the-shelf parts, or so I understand.  The technical part is getting access to the plutonium.  The Soviets did a wonderful job of opening that door for North Korea.

Carrick on October 8, 2006 at 08:24 pm

Message to liberals: this is what happens when you make the mistake of thinking that you can negotiate with crazy nations. Take good notes and try to imagine why diplomacy isn’t always a good idea.

likwidshoe on October 9, 2006 at 02:16 am
Avatar for gregdn

Well, at least we know for sure now.  I agree N.K. selling the technology is probably a bigger worry than actually using it.

gregdn on October 9, 2006 at 02:56 am

I will be the first to step up. I am not convinced. I have run through all the released reports this morning an one major point stands out, no radioactive spoor. Even in our most controlled underground shots there was radiation detectable within hours. All that is being put forward is siesmic spoor. With the large number of radiological detect stations in Japan we would be seeing indications very quickly. Later in the day I will have Wifey sweep the NO NUKE webpages, they should be putting out their results from locations in Japan and Korea by 12:00 EST. Siesmic activity can be produced using conventional explosives, of which NK has quite the stockpile of.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on October 9, 2006 at 03:27 am

It seems to me that if China doesn’t do something then South Korea and Japan will need to arm themselves.

If those two countries get Nukes, can Taiwan be far behind?

I think China has all the incentive in the world do something.  The question is are they smart enough to come to that conclusion.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on October 9, 2006 at 04:16 am
Avatar for Will

Nukes are evil, genocidal weapons, and have no legitimate place in the post 9/11 world.  They are the ultimate weapon for terrorists, maniacs, and rogue nations, but they are useless to the US.  Who does our nuclear arsenal deter?  China?  C’mon, they wouldn’t nuke us, we’re they’re best customer.  The cold war is over. Nukes are not good weapons for the threats that face us in the 21st century. (Actually, in the hands of terrorists, they ARE one of the greatest threats we face.)

The world should stop treating nuclear weapons as the crowning achievements of great nations.  They should NOT be regarded as status symbols.  They should be reviled the way chemical and biological weapons are.  The Western nuclear powers should dismantle their nukes.

Will on October 9, 2006 at 04:22 am
Avatar for One Eyed  Jack

I dunno know about the rest of you, but I feel safer after six years of dealing with the Axis of Evil

One Eyed Jack on October 9, 2006 at 04:36 am

OEJ:  You’ve got to give credit to GWB for identifying them as evil rather than how the previous administration FACILLATED NORTH KOREA’S BUILDING OF THE BOMB.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on October 9, 2006 at 04:41 am
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The Western nuclear powers should dismantle their nukes.

The more crazy people like Jong Ill and Iran’s Ahmadinejad get nukes, the more we should get rid of ours?

Should we also get rid of our dams the higher the ocean level gets?

You must be kidding, right?

Friend of USA on October 9, 2006 at 05:16 am

So what’s next? Our poor President has been given so much. AND critisized all the way. The world has some real inferior individuals who have hopes of superiority. Ruling the world and living in it together, peacefully. That probably doesn’t occur to Kim JongII or radical islam?

Zsa Zsa on October 9, 2006 at 05:38 am
Avatar for Mickey

Just one of our Nuclear Attack Submarines carries 160 warheads and could launch all of them on Korea in 30 minutes. But that’s not the issue. China is. Right now China needs to step up and do something about NK.

At present growth rates, in three to four decades, China will not only be the largest world economy, they will also be the largest Super Power. You all better hope we maintain a healthy relationship with the future world leader.

Mickey on October 9, 2006 at 06:00 am

Kim JongIL needs to be stopped. NOW!

Zsa Zsa on October 9, 2006 at 06:30 am

Mickey...What do you think South Korea anf Japan are thinking? They gave up their nukes…

Zsa Zsa on October 9, 2006 at 06:43 am
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Why is my Gravatar not showing?

Friend of USA on October 9, 2006 at 07:14 am

My Gravatar took a day off yesterday.  Fortunately it came back.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on October 9, 2006 at 07:29 am

I think we should help North Korea.

They want nuclear weapons?  Lets give them several dozen… for a few milliseconds each.

Out Here
Rodney Graves


Out Here
Rodney G. Graves

Ceterum censeo Parthia esse delendam
Latin: “Furthermore, Parthia (Persia aka modern day Iran) should be destroyed.”

Rodney Graves on October 9, 2006 at 07:38 am

As sort of a congratulations?…

Zsa Zsa on October 9, 2006 at 08:06 am
Avatar for Mickey

Zsa Zsa,

Only a military coup could unseat Kim Jong Il now. Considering the indoctrination that his military has on their society I don’t see that happening. This recent action will only encourage Iran to follow suit. Kim Jong Il has over a million soldiers on the border armed with tens of thousands of conventional weapons. He doesn’t need a nuclear weapon to pose a threat to South Korea. As I said earlier, we can target all of North Korea with just one submarine. If anything, he will use this new technology to increase his extortion on South Korea’s economy. Tough talk from the UN, China, Russia, and the USA is meaningless if we don’t act in unity. The threat of a nuclear deterrent against North Korea if they did strike South Korea has lost a great deal of authority. He now has the power to hold Japan as a virtual hostage like a bargaining chip. I don’t think you would see a great deal of objection from the world powers if China “took him out” sometime after this all calms down.

Mickey on October 9, 2006 at 08:14 am
Avatar for aNONOMISLY

I think Hot Air thing on ABC is really unfair.  If you visit their site, you’ll see they have a rolling front page. ..plus from the picture above has “North Korea Says Nuclear Test successful” as the top Healine.

aNONOMISLY on October 9, 2006 at 08:37 am

Gang, I have gone through every available report and have found no one reporting any indication of radiation release from this “test”. It is beyond the realm of believability that the DPRK has developed a method for eliminating all radiation from a nuclear fussion or fission device. Just not believable. I am calling bullshit. Even the rabid anti-nuke crowd is not showing any proof of an radiological event. Monitors in Japan are not reporting any radioactive spoor, and the prevailing winds have been west to east and steady for the last 180 hours, according to satelite data from AccuWeather and NOAA. I say this is all Jong Il stamping his diminutive little feet and screeching for everyone to pay attention to him. And it is working.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on October 9, 2006 at 01:40 pm
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2h, like you I think it was a failure. I believe if was an earnest test, but that if failed. (kinda like the missiles NK tested some time ago) The earth shake was probably do to the coventional explosive used to try and set the reaction. ..but I think the pludonium reaction never occured.

aNONOMISLY on October 9, 2006 at 02:56 pm

Kim JongIL is such a twerpy looking character.

Zsa Zsa on October 9, 2006 at 05:03 pm

aNON, I stand by the call. No nuclear device, conventional explosives only. I swept reports released in the last 8 hours and no radiactive component is yet reported. Till radioactive spoor is confirmed it is just a piss poor publicity production. The 4 Ps principal in action.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on October 10, 2006 at 02:21 am
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