NIE Report Declassified

You can read it here. It’s pretty short, and very readable, and certainly doesn’t seem to back up the doom and gloom claims we heard from Democrats and the media a few days ago.
Here are some excerpts I found interesting:

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

Basically, what we’ve been doing in the war on terror so far has been working, but the war is not won yet. Our enemy is adapting, and so we need to remain vigilant against the terror threat and continue to develop new ways to detect and thwart attacks.
This is exactly what the President/Republicans have been saying all along.

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

That’s good and bad. On one hand, we’ve seriously disrupted the major terror networks. On the other hand, this has caused the jihadist movement to go underground where it may be harder to root out.
Now here’s the part the media/Democrats were up in arms about:

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  • http://Array robert108

    So, let me get this straight; what we are doing in Iraq is successful in both fighting terrorism, and in keeping it out of the US, and the war isn’t won yet, but we are going in the right direction? The President has been saying exactly that for how long, now?

    Expect more lying from the Dems.

  • carrick

    MikeAdamson:

    Some of us critics of the current policy of military engagement focused primarily in Iraq believe that the slog will be that much longer and harder because of the very policy. If more jihadists are created than are killed then the policy won’t work

    What’s your alternative, Mike? Let Saddam keep training his force of 50,000 Fedayeen Jerusalem, let al Zarqawi continue to operate unfettered out of Iraq (and supported materially and financially by Saddam)?

    For once, I wish you would spell out what you think would be a better choice. Continued sanctions? More UN resolutions?

    Bush’s solution is a long hard slog, but it’s guaranteed to succeed, unless sabotaged by partisan-inspired opposition at home.

  • http://www.willisms.com/ Zsa Zsa

    Rob… You nailed the whole reason for the original NIE report leak. In the beginning it was a blatant, coordinated political smear. I guess the Dems didn’t think the ultra-secretive Bush administration would release the entire report. I wonder how much impact Tony Snow had on this decision? Anyway, it has ceased to amaze me that the dems are willing to be traitorous and treacherous in order to regain Power…

  • carrick

    WIll, most of the post-war planning was done by the State Department & the CIA, not the Pentagon. It is an unfortunate fact of history that Rumsfeld managed to gain control of the post-war administration, after having refused to consider it a real possibility. In the process, he tossed out all of the planning that had been done, and basically ad hoc’d it from there.

    As far as not taking out Zarqawi, I can’t say I’m much impressed with your argument. We were approaching a war time situation, where the strategic alignment of the nations entering the war mattered more than tactical questions like a strike on Zarqawi. Going alone in Iraq had a much higher chance of failure than whether there was one more or one less terrorist.

    In retrospect, I agree that we underestimated the importance of Zarqawi. These are questions best left for history. They have no impact on our current or future planning. We’re in Iraq now, Zarqawi is dead, the issue is moot, unless you really want to get into game of finger pointing.

  • Bat One

    Whistler,

    One thing you can say about being in Iraq is it’s sure easier to keep an eye on the Iranians from there, than it would be from some more distant locale… say, Okinawa?

  • 2Hotel9

    Nothing that has not been said already, ad nauseam.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Or if you’re afraid that won’t make them happy, we can just pull out of Iraq into Syria and/or Iran.

  • Will

    United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations;

    The “war on terror” has disrupted al-Qa’ida. That’s good news. I applaud, for example, the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan. But, like many people, I make a distinction between the “war on terror” and the Iraq War. The Iraq War had done tremendous damage by providing fodder for anti-American jihadists around the world, by creating a “cause celebre”:

    We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

    This statement is even more disturbing when you consider that for many jihadists, martyrdom is success. The seeds of the jihad “cause celebre” can be found in places like this:

    “The secretary of defense continued to push on us that everything we write in our plan has to be the idea that we are going to go in, we’re going to take out the regime, and then we’re going to leave,” Scheid said. “We won’t stay.”

    Scheid said the planners continued to try “to write what was called Phase 4,” or the piece of the plan that included post-invasion operations like security, stability and reconstruction.

    Even if the troops didn’t stay, “at least we have to plan for it,” Scheid said.

    “I remember the secretary of defense saying that he would fire the next person that said that,” Scheid said. “We would not do planning for Phase 4 operations, which would require all those additional troops that people talk about today.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I say pull out of Iraq now just so we can invade them again.

    That’ll really piss of the lefties.

  • MikeAdamson

    Good column in the Washington Post this morning…how do we help Iraq not become a failed state? Given that the course can not be stayed in Iraq nor can a simple American withdrawl take place…what form should Iraq take in order to maximise stability and minimise jihadism and what do we do to help that process along?

  • JFH

    This is MY favorite part of the “bad news” for the war in Iraq:

    Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

    Since Zarqawi is dead and his remaining followers HAVEN’T scaled back, this should now turn into good news right?

  • Bat One

    … another critical mistake that helped give the jihadists a foothold in Iraq.

    Will,

    Surely you aren’t going to defend the notion that “the jihadists” had no “foothold” in Iraq prior to the US led invasion and the overthrow of Saddam. There are perfectly irrational leftwing moonbats that know better than that. Even Democrats.

  • Will

    I am specifically claiming that Zarqawi had an important role in fomenting the current Iraq jihad. If Bush had permitted the US Military to take him out before the war, as they requested permission to do several times, Zarqawi would not have had an opportunity to do so much damage and kill so many people.

  • Will

    Zarqawi should have been taken out back in 2002, when the US Military had a bead on him (WSJ, October 25, 2004) :

    Gen. Keane characterized the camp “as one of the best targets we ever had,” and questioned the decision not to attack it. When the U.S. did strike the camp a day after the war started, Mr. Zarqawi, many of his followers and Kurdish extremists belonging to his organization already had fled, people involved with intelligence say.

    Or see this:

    The Pentagon drew up still another attack plan, and for the third time, the National Security Council killed it.

    Military officials insist their case for attacking Zarqawi’s operation was airtight, but the administration feared destroying the terrorist camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam.

    Bush put promoting the Iraq War ahead of actually fighting the war on terror. This was another critical mistake that helped give the jihadists a foothold in Iraq.

  • carrick

    Will, as we’ve pointed out many times, Saddam himself was involved in sponsoring terrorism, to the point of establishing the “Club Met” version in Salman Pak . What is your recommendation for addressing that?

    And you are aware of an opportunity where Bush could have stopped Zarqawi, but failed. Exactly where is the reference to that?

  • MikeAdamson

    Mike, the people it isn’t going quickly enough for are the critics of the foreign policy that has us fighting there in the first place. The rest of us knew all along that it was going to be a long, hard slog.

    Some of us critics of the current policy of military engagement focused primarily in Iraq believe that the slog will be that much longer and harder because of the very policy. If more jihadists are created than are killed then the policy won’t work.

  • Will

    Bush thrice declined Pentagon requests for permission to take out Zarqawi, an important terrorist operative. This was after 9/11, when the war on terror was supposedly his very top priority.

    The Bush administration then proceeded to use Zarqawi as an justification for invading Iraq. They put the Iraq War ahead of the war on terror.

  • Bat One

    Bush thrice declined Pentagon requests for permission to take out Zarqawi, an important terrorist operative.

    Will,

    When someone asks “Exactly where is your reference…” that is a request for an authoritative citation documenting what you allege. It is not a invitation for you to repeat your allegation in more detail.

    The source for your contention that Mr. Bush declined on three separate occasions to accede to Pentagon requests to take out Zarqawi would be very much appreciated. I was not aware that this was the case, either.

  • Bat One

    I am specifically claiming that Zarqawi had an important role in fomenting the current Iraq jihad.

    Will,

    This is certainly true, although it is NOT what you had written previously.

    If Bush had permitted the US Military to take him out before the war, as they requested permission to do several times, Zarqawi would not have had an opportunity to do so much damage and kill so many people.

    In all likelihood, this too is true, although it does involve a certain amount of conjecture. Of course, the same could also be said of virtually the entire Clinton administration, although it seems to annoy the former president considerably when it is said. Another reason, perhaps, that Sandy Berger stole all those documents from the National Archives. No doubt Bubba was pleased.

  • Will

    When someone asks “Exactly where is your reference…” that is a request for an authoritative citation documenting what you allege. It is not a invitation for you to repeat your allegation in more detail.

    The references to WSJ and MSNBC were in my original Zarqawi post, but since so many people seem to have missed it, I’ll repost:

    Zarqawi should have been taken out back in 2002, when the US Military had a bead on him (WSJ, October 25, 2004) :

    Gen. Keane characterized the camp “as one of the best targets we ever had,” and questioned the decision not to attack it. When the U.S. did strike the camp a day after the war started, Mr. Zarqawi, many of his followers and Kurdish extremists belonging to his organization already had fled, people involved with intelligence say.

    Or see this:

    The Pentagon drew up still another attack plan, and for the third time, the National Security Council killed it.

    Military officials insist their case for attacking Zarqawi’s operation was airtight, but the administration feared destroying the terrorist camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam.

    Bush put promoting the Iraq War ahead of actually fighting the war on terror. This was another critical mistake that helped give the jihadists [aka the "current Iraq jihad"] a foothold in Iraq.

    [The first mistake I had cited was Rumsfeld's refusal to plan for the occupation.]

    [The WSJ citation is the best I can do without a subscription to the WSJ. I did read actual printed issue of the WSJ and I can vouch for the fact that the article is legit.]

  • MikeAdamson

    This was my favourite part:

    Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed
    and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include
    dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the
    jihadistsÂ’ radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and
    criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens.

    Good points all and reasons to think that jihadism will ultimately lose…perhaps not quickly enough for the trigger happy among us but anything worth doing is worth doing well. If r108′s vision of free choices for free people is to be realised then we’d better convince the people of the Middle East that we want that for them too.

  • robert108

    If more jihadists are created than are killed then the policy won’t work.

    Wrong conclusion. It means that we have to kill them faster and in larger quantities, which means drawing them together in one place. Duh!

  • Will

    The links I originally posted about Rumsfeld’s refusal to permit any planning for the post-invasion occupation of Iraq are no longer available. Another account of it can be found here:

    Brig. Gen. Mark E. Scheid told the Newport News Daily Press in an interview published yesterday that Rumsfeld had said “he would fire the next person” who talked about the need for a postwar plan.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    perhaps not quickly enough for the trigger happy among us but anything worth doing is worth doing well.

    Mike, the people it isn’t going quickly enough for are the critics of the foreign policy that has us fighting there in the first place. The rest of us knew all along that it was going to be a long, hard slog.

    But spreading democracy to the middle east is ultimately the best policy. We’re playing the long game here, not the short game. The war we’re fighting now may be good fodder for recruiting terrorists now, but in the long run it’s what it will take to win. They aren’t backing down.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    If more jihadists are created than are killed then the policy won’t work.

    Still thinking short-term Mike. It’s going to be a grind. They must know that they can’t win. Withdrawing gives them a victory and will embolden them for new attacks. Grinding it out with them and show them that they can’t win no matter how long they fight will give us victory.

    It isn’t an easy thing, but ultimately this is the proper policy. After all, refusing to print images of Mohammed and ineffectual UN edicts only going to keep them at bay for so long.

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