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Monday, September 29, 2008

New York Times In 1999: Fannie Mae Taking On More Subprime Loans, May Put Company At Risk

Just in case anyone out there still thinks the powers-that-be didn’t see this coming, here’s a New York Times from 1999:

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets—including the New York metropolitan region—will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates—anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.

‘’Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990’s by reducing down payment requirements,’’ said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae’s chairman and chief executive officer. ‘’Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.’’

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.

Shockingly prescient, no?  So if the New York Times could see this coming, why couldn’t Democrats in Congress?  And I do mean Democrats, because Republicans have been trying to fix this for years now.

In 2007:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—President Bush said Thursday that he’s against letting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy more home loans in an effort to prop up the sagging mortgage market, commenting that he prefers to reform the two entities first.

In 2006:

The Bush administration has been pushing for legislation to reduce the massive mortgage portfolios of Fannie Mae and its smaller government-sponsored sibling, Freddie Mac.

In 2005:

WASHINGTON, Feb. 17 - The Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, urged Congress on Thursday to sharply scale back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant and troubled government-sponsored mortgage companies. . . .

Mr. Greenspan’s comments came as Congress and the Bush administration attempt sweeping changes in how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are regulated.

In 2004, right after Bush’s re-election:

One group that declined conspicuously was thrift and mortgage- company stocks. [Bush] is expected to crack down on the quasi- governmental mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been criticized for accounting irregularities and princely executive salaries. Fannie Mae fell $2.67 to $68.77, and Freddie Mac slid $1.25 to $65.99.

In 2003:

In September 2003, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow urged Congress to get tough with Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage company run by Franklin D. Raines. Snow said lawmakers needed to create a strong federal regulator to scrutinize Fannie Mae, which controls almost $1 trillion of U.S. home mortgages.

In 2002:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Mortgage financers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have agreed to voluntarily meet certain corporate disclosure requirements, prompting the Bush administration to back off its efforts to eliminate their exemption from the rules. . . .

The announcement comes days before the Bush administration was due to make an announcement on the two companies’ role in the mortgage finance system, and it adds to a series of steps the companies have taken to address concerns about their special status in U.S. financial markets.

In 2001:

With Vermont Sen. James Jeffords expected to announce Thursday that he is leaving the Republican Party, George Bush’s legislative agenda has suffered a major blow. And it’s forcing investors who had hoped the president would have his way in Congress to do some serious rethinking.

Jeffords’ breaking ranks with the GOP would end the 50-50 split in the Senate, giving operational control to the Democrats. . . .

There are some stocks, however, that likely would benefit from the Senate switch. Wallace notes that, with a greener Senate, companies focusing on alternative energy sources may see their recent run continue. And more specifically, mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE - news - boards) and Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE - news - boards) have brighter outlooks.

Currently, the Senate Banking Committee is headed by Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, who has been mulling tougher legislation of Fannie and Freddie. Maryland Sen. Paul Sarbanes, who would take over the Banking Committee, is much softer on the two.

Get the point?

Throughout the Bush administration Republicans have tried to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and all along were stymied by Democrats because the GOP never had a filibuster-proof majority.

Which isn’t to say that Republican hands are entirely clean on this.  But let’s just say that one group of politicians in Washington DC was trying to fix this before it blew up in our faces, while the other group was too busy building a financial house of cards for the purposes of buying votes.

Comments

Avatar for Ryan

From 1995 to 2007, Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

I didn’t bother going through all your links, but the 2005 one, about Rep. Baker (R-Louisiana), where he sponsored new regulation legislation, passed about 300 or so to 90, and those 90 were primarily Republicans. So… wait… you’re approvingly citing legislation a majority of Democrats supported, and only Republicans and the Bush administration opposed?

I need a drink.

Ryan on September 29, 2008 at 06:10 pm
Rob
Rob
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Two things Ryan.  First:

From 1995 to 2007, Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

It takes 60 votes to get anything through the Senate, genius.

Second:

I didn’t bother going through all your links, but the 2005 one, about Rep. Baker (R-Louisiana), where he sponsored new regulation legislation, passed about 300 or so to 90, and those 90 were primarily Republicans. So… wait… you’re approvingly citing legislation a majority of Democrats supported, and only Republicans and the Bush administration opposed?

From the post:

Throughout the Bush administration Republicans have tried to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and all along were stymied by Democrats because the GOP never had a filibuster-proof majority.

Which isn’t to say that Republican hands are entirely clean on this.

I’m not entirely exonerating Republicans.  But I am tired of hearing from the left that this is a Republican problem.  Or that capitalism caused this.

Let’s be clear: This was a free market problem.  This was a government problem.  Most Republicans tried to fix it.  Most Democrats opposed those fixes.

Those are truths.

Enjoy your drink.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on September 29, 2008 at 06:16 pm
Avatar for Ryan

Let’s be clear: This was a free market problem.  This was a government problem.  Most Republicans tried to fix it.  Most Democrats opposed those fixes.

Those are truths.

I like to dream too, Rob.

Ryan on September 29, 2008 at 06:20 pm
Rob
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*shrugs*

It’s no dream.  It’s reality, as I’ve demonstrated.

If you want to wave your hand and say it’s a dream, because that’s what is most convenient for your ideology, go ahead.  But then don’t accuse me of self-delusion.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on September 29, 2008 at 06:30 pm
Avatar for The Decider

Isn’t it hilarious how they keep pushing this?  We’d have heard it from McCain during the debates if it wasn’t so ridiculously stupid that he would have been universally laughed at by Economists and industry professionals.  Still, I guess it sounds pretty good to random sheep who think everything is a MSM conspiracy to hide the real truth when it doesn’t agree with their preconceived notions.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, Reaganomics to start with and then corrupted Clinton style democrats (*cough* Soros *cough*) who helped enable the legislation that brought us to this.

The Decider on September 29, 2008 at 06:49 pm
Rob
Rob
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Reaganomics to start with

Care to explain how Ronald Reagan had anything to do with government forcing lenders to make loans on low-value homes purchased by people with marginal credit ratings?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on September 29, 2008 at 06:56 pm
Avatar for The Decider

Care to explain how Ronald Reagan had anything to do with government forcing lenders to make loans on low-value homes purchased by people with marginal credit ratings?

Care to explain how deregulating the division between commercial and investment banking doesn’t relate to Reagan’s economic philosophy?

See, I can ask loaded questions too.

The Decider on September 29, 2008 at 07:06 pm
Avatar for The Decider

I’m also interested in why, if this is basically 90% the fault of liberal ideology, doesn’t the McCain campaign start hammering back at Obama over the causes for this economic crisis?  Polls show they’re clearing losing ground over this, if this is all solid reasoning then why not throw it back in Obama’s face?  There was certainly ample opportunity to do so during the last debate.

The Decider on September 29, 2008 at 07:10 pm
Rob
Rob
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*shrugs*

I’ve never accused McCain of being a good candidate.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on September 29, 2008 at 07:19 pm
Avatar for tothestars2

then why not throw it back in Obama’s face?  There was certainly ample opportunity to do so during the last debate.

Believe me, a lot of republicans are asking the same question!

tothestars2 on September 29, 2008 at 08:23 pm
Avatar for Pfeh
Pfeh on September 30, 2008 at 06:18 am
Avatar for MC Me

helpful facts you may have overlooked:

*President Bush launched “America’s Homeownership Challenge” in June 2002, extending Clinton Administration efforts to provide housing to those formerly locked out of the housing market

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020617.html

*subprime loans skyrocketed under the Bush administration from 2001 to 2005 (from $120bn to over $600 bn)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/13/yourmoney/mortgage.php

*the definition of a subprime loan is not limited to people with poor credit and includes people with high salaries and good credit (i.e. that dude in san francisco who makes $500K per year, but could only buy a $4mm house with a “creative” read negative amortization loan)

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/subprimeloan.asp
http://www.lendermark.com/subprime_loan.htm
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003853935_jumbo26.html

*mortgage defaults did not accelerate above prior averages until the 2005 loan cohort (loans made in 2005) and increased in 2006 and 2007 cohorts

*Alt-A and Prime loan default rates are way up

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/10lend.html?ex=1333944000&en=29ed5ea17b611e3d&ei=5124&partner=digg&exprod=digg

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-08-03-mortgage-lending_N.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8NxWPjLNTRc&refer=home

the truth of the matter is lending to people who were previously locked out of homeownership is not the cause of this crisis.  greed got us here: the effort to buoy the US economy after the tech bubble and 9-11 through supercharging the housing market, the gov’t and wall street push to extend the enormous profits banks and mortgage companies were making, relaxation of lending guidelines for ALL BORROWERS, creating and coddling an unregulated $60 trillion derivatives market, encouraging the over-leveraging of investment banks, etc, etc, etc.

MC Me on September 30, 2008 at 07:15 am
Avatar for MC Me

More helpful definitions of subprime, Alt-A and B, C, D paper:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/Wiki/Subprime_Loans.asp
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/Wiki/Alt_A_Loans.asp
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/wiki/B_C_D_Loans.asp

again, subprime generally means anything other than prime (conforming, 20% down, 28/32 debt ratio, 2-year employment history)

a survey of 2006 loans by 84 mortgage banks (including the top 30 lenders) revealed the extent to which subprime loans were being written that year accounting for 47% of first-time and repeat buyers (in other words, 47% of ALL loans).  together, subprime & alt-a loans represent 30% of all loans in the marketplace (15% and 15% respectively): 

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/newsandmedia/presscenter/55453.htm
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/7102007_Mortgage_Surveys.asp

clearly, subprime loans with terms beneficial to the lender were being written for ALL kinds of folks- poor, rich and in-between.  more importantly, in 2005 Freddie Mac estimated that 15% of subprime borrowers actually qualified for traditional loans.  (corporate greed at work)

http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2005/08/03/dark_side_of_subprime_loans/

because home prices are in steep decline, even prime mortgage loans are now experiencing higher level of defaults.  indeed, all types of loans are now experiencing higher default rates:

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/05/primed-for-trouble-pace-of-mortgage-distress-shifts-to-prime-borrowers/
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/business/12credit.html

understanding the nuances of this issue, one quickly sees we got in this mess because American consumers were issued all kinds of credit (both cheaply and at usurious rates- think credit card) based on all kinds of faulty assumptions and we spent it like there was no tomorrow, leveraging everything.  American investment banks too were over-leveraged.  But who cared, folks felt rich, businesses made tons of money and government shunned regulation despite warnings of imminent collapse to keep the economy and the party going.  making mortgage loans to poor people who’s only desire was to have a house was just a small part of a much, much larger picture of too much credit, too fast for short term gain all the way around.

we all bear responsibility for this crisis.

MC Me on October 1, 2008 at 05:59 am
Avatar for Nathan

Watch this video it speaks for itself

http://www.youtube.com/user/TheMouthPeace

Nathan on October 1, 2008 at 07:42 pm
Avatar for MC Me

nathan- to provide a more factual, more accurate, less partisan view your video needs to mention:

*subprime is ANY loan that is non-conforming, not just those with low income/poor credit

*president bush’s 2002 America’s Home Ownership Challenge promoted a 6-fold increase of the size of the subprime loan market from 2001 to 2005

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFGf71vlQkWM

*subprime default rates only began rising in 2001

*subprime default rates rose from 5% in 2005 to 24% in 2008

*as default rates rose, the bush administration rejected efforts to address the issue head-on

MC Me on October 1, 2008 at 11:02 pm
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