New York Times Analysis Picks Berg To Win Over Heitkamp In ND Senate Race


According to the New York Times’ political prognostications blog FiveThirtyEight, the recent polling showing Republican Senate candidate Rick Berg in a tie with Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t mean much. Noting the importance of oil politics to the outcome of this election, they’re still giving Berg a 78% chance of winning the race.

“According to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast, the Republican, Mr. Berg, is a 77 percent favorite,” reads the most recent post on the state. Here’s how they arrived there. Note the bottom showing the polling in the race (excluding, rightly, non-sensical polling released by the Democrats) which indicates that the Mason-Dixon polling showing the Senate race tied is a bit of an outlier:

Democrats have done a very, very good job of creating the public perception of a close race between Heitkamp and Berg. And, to be sure, Heitkamp’s well-run campaign has made the race closer than many expected it to be. But Heitkamp has simply had too much ground to make up. To be competitive with Berg she has to distance herself from her political party, and from policies/political leaders she’s been extremely loyal too, and it’s hard to imagine that many voters are taking her election year conversion all that seriously.

Rob Port is the editor of In 2011 he was a finalist for the Watch Dog of the Year from the Sam Adams Alliance and winner of the Americans For Prosperity Award for Online Excellence. In 2013 the Washington Post named SAB one of the nation's top state-based political blogs, and named Rob one of the state's best political reporters.

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  • Sadened Soul

    With an infestation of right wing low information voters scared into a frenzy over guns, gays, and god it would be hard to see Berg lose. There is always hope we can pull out of our red neck fog and face reality, but the voters of North Dakota are willing to give the rich their tax breaks if the Republicans will protect us from the black president and affordable health care. It is so sad to live in a state with such terrible disrespect for education that we sit on billions and have the worst paid teachers in the country. What do you expect from a party that thrives on low information voters. As Rick Berg helps the rich rob the working man the poor people in North Dakota who work for a living will be driven into the ground. Hopefully they will wake up. It is such a sad thing to have a bubba state so far North, but that is the role of North Dakota. The oil people moving north to work here will feel right at home with the red neck politics of Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas.

    • Rob

      So, what you’re saying is Heitkamp will lose because North Daotans are stupid.

      That’s about what I expect from you liberals. The weird thing about North Dakota liberals is how few of them actually seem to like North Dakota.

      • Thresherman

        What you have to understand about liberals is that when they fail to convince people on their policies, it can never be because there is a problem or fault with their policies, for if it were, they then would have to question the wisdom of those same policies. But to liberal, that can never be, because their belief in their policies is an article of faith. Since they believe that their policies are infallable, the only other answer for the failure of others to embrace them, is that these people must be damaged in some way. That then, is why they call us stupid, hateful, racist and so on, for they think that it is simply that these defect that are preventing us from becoming enlightend as they are. This exposes them as inferior thinkers themselves as they cannot accept that through reason and logic people can come to conclusions other than th e ones that they embrace. Additionally, because their political beliefs are more derived from emotions than reason or logic, they tend to argue that way as well resulting in what we see here, a rant that is long on vitriol and short on fact.

        • $8194357

          Typical leftist liberal arrogance.

      • Albert Lickenspittle

        Rob, I like North Dakota it is a wonderful state for outdoorsmen. I had a great time pheasant hunting over the weekend. If we could rid the state of the greedy right wing Republicans who only care about themselves, North Dakota would be close to heaven. However, with Rats like Berg trying to give more money to the rich rather than help those truly in need it is an uphill battle. It is so sad to see someone like you take the side of Satan, but you will eventually suffer from your own folly of being a lickspittle to the rich. They will use you and pitch you to the pigs when you no longer serve them. Once you get older and see the pain they inflict on your children, you will look back on your days as a facilitator of greed and regret your role in spreading the disease we call Republicans.

        • Rob

          So you like the geography, you just hate the people who live here. Or most of them, anyway.


          • Jeff

            This thread is laughable. Rob…you just don’t get it. We must, “rid the state of the greedy right wing Republicans.” Hey Albert…who is going to provide the jobs to the folks who are left after those “greedy right wing Republicans” all leave? I have never been employed by a poor person. Since when is making money as a result of HARD WORK such a demonic act? The liberals are flinging a bunch of rhetoric again…and that makes me EXTREMELY happy…because I sense November 6th is going to go VERY well for Republicans!!! Woo hoo!!!

          • Albert Lickenspittle

            Jeff, have you heard about Basin Electric coop? Have you heard about Cenex? Have you heard about the phone coops? You can have jobs without greed dogs sucking the life blood from working people.

          • willieB

            “greed dogs sucking the life blood from working people.”

            Speaking of a greed dog…and no class.

          • Onslaught1066


          • tomorrowclear

            I eagerly await the resident right-wingers showing their intellectual consistency in calling you out for this reference to physical appearances after deploring my poking fun at Chris “Jabba the Hut” Christie’s belly. That’s the thing about right-wingers – they’re such principled people.

            BTW, what does a hot-air balloon and Chris Christie have in common?

          • Roy_Bean

            Dingy Harry and his crony capitalists are financing the campaign. The narrative is that Heidi is winning because of all the exposure in the local media. The democrat meme is that corporatism is the salvation of society, but it will surely be the downfall.

          • $8194357

            Soviet communist structured pyramid schemes.

          • Albert Lickenspittle

            The goodness of the people here is somewhat of their downfall. They are too trusting. They allow unscrupulous people like you to fill them full of right wing lies. Their trust is their downfall. The good people her are just too easy prey. They do not understand the implications of the greed philosophy. Most of the people in North Dakota do not read a lot, travel a lot, or think a lot about the implications of Republican policies. Since they are very provincial they do not see how Republican greed is destroying the country. North Dakotan’s are wonderful people that is why it is so sad to see you and your ilk use them for the gain of the rich and the destruction of good working people that populate this state. Your party wants to deprive the working class of affordable health care just to give tax breaks to the rich, you have no shame.

          • $8194357

            (The goodness of the people here is somewhat of their downfall. They are too trusting. They allow unscrupulous people like you to fill them full of right wing lies.)

            That should be LEFT WING dip wad, huh…

            And you describe the exact method Frankfort Marxists put into play with PC cultural terrorism with the Democratic platform dip wad..




            Good and thourough Documentary on the origin of political correctness. As it turns out it is a revision of the marxist concept of false consciousness and has very real similarities with policies made by the communists in the eastern bloc in order to silence dissent.

            The western variant originated in the “critical theory” of the Frankfurt School. Refusing to take any responsibility for their own beliefsystem and present their agenda in a direct and comprehensible manner,they found themselves content with igniting the conflicts within capitalist societies in order to weaken them.

            Promoting hedonism and making enemies of every thinkable grouping within the free world, they kept authorities comfortably busy on the homefront. Blacks and whites, husbands and wives, young and old, gay and straight etc. If gay-marriages were to become a majority preference one day, they would surely fight for the rights of the minority-group of individuals who want to marry their pets and criticise homosexuals for discriminating against people with a more polymorpheus sexuality than themselves.

            In essence many of the moronic professors now presiding over all the big social “studies” departments at american and european universities are the wounded victims of this aspect of the cold war.

            Getting a helping hand by the active measures of the soviet union because they had a weakened sense of truth,
            unable to resist the careful attack on academia,
            led by the cultural marxists,
            disappointed by the revolutionary potential
            of the western working class

            End quote

            A cultural cold war attack on American society..

            the left pointing right and blaming them of what they in
            fact have been doing themselves….

            Go figure apoligist..Go figure…

          • Thresherman

            Yeah, once again we are hearing the liberal talking down to others. They are too stupid and trusting so they fall prey to Republicans. Listen you arrrogant ass, there is a reason that ND isn’t up to it’s eyeballs in debt like ultra liberal California. Been to Detroit lately? What have they got for trusting Democrats? The place looks like Dresden Germany after the US 8th Air Force got through with it.
            But gosh, if only those stupid North Dakotans would listen to the liberals and then it too could become a Democratic paradise with massive public debts, tyranical gun control laws, union control of the education system and public works and services, sky fickin’ high taxes and poverty replacing what what used to be an energy boom. So take all your socialist plans and fold them until they are all sharp corners and shove them up…you know where.

          • Albert Lickespittle

            You have to be kidding Thrersher. Oil, Coal, that is why we are not in debt, without it we would be worse than broke, but the Republicans had the good sense to put it here.

          • Guest Observer

            I feel I must assert my freedom to comment on an important public issue that Albert Lickenspittle has thrust into the vortex of public comment. I’m sure that everyone reading this is already familiar with Albert’s insipid pronouncements so I’ll spare you the sordid details. Instead, I’ll simply summarize with the comment that it’s unquestionably a tragedy that Albert’s goal in life is apparently to deny citizens the ability to become informed about the destruction that he is capable of. Here, I use the word “tragedy” as the philosopher Whitehead used it. Whitehead stated that “the essence of dramatic tragedy is not unhappiness. It resides in the solemnity of the remorseless working of things,” which I interpret as saying that my current plan is to examine the social and cultural conditions that lead Albert to stir up trouble. Yes, Albert will draw upon the most powerful fires of Hell to tear that plan asunder, but I wouldn’t judge his devotees too harshly. They’re definitely just cannon fodder for Albert’s plot to engage in the trafficking of human beings. Still, the issue of what to do about Albert Lickenspittle’s callous fulminations is far from settled. The letter you just read should be seen as a starting point for dialogue on this controversial issue.

  • bottineau bay

    Well, I’m glad that you have such high regard for the 538, as it also says even after the Romney “surge” that Obama has a 65% chance of winning.

    • Rob

      Yeah, i think that’s a fair assessment.

  • Chicken Foxed

    There is no open carry in Heaven, the gun nuts will go wild. This was just reported on Fox, so you can bet it is true

    • robert108

      Sorry to have to inform you that our Constitution applies to our country.