Krauthammer gets it right
We had two political objectives in going into Iraq: deposing Saddam Hussein and replacing his regime with a democratic government unthreatening to the region and strategically friendly to the United States. The first objective proved far more easy to achieve than anticipated. The second has proved far more difficult than anticipated.
The most serious misconception had nothing to do with troop levels or whether to disband an army that had already disbanded itself. It had to do with gauging Sunni intentions. Decades of iron rule over the Shiites and Kurds had left the Sunnis militantly unreconciled to any other political order. [...] Perhaps the current Sunni insurgency could have been defeated by an overwhelming display of American force with a huge number of troops and a scorched-earth counterinsurgency. But that could well have resulted in a Pyrrhic and very temporary victory, increasing Sunni bitterness and resistance that would inevitably return as we drew down our forces. After all, we were never going to keep a huge land army in the desert forever.
He makes a number of good points here. Like him, I'm not sold that simply increasing the troop size would have created a miracle. I do think that ultimately disbanding the army & the government put many people out of work and fanned the flames of their resentment towards being deposed. Failing to establish an interim government within the first six months was another major failure that allowed the insurgency to find its feet.
That's water over the dam now, of course, and we need to focus towards the future. Amnesty is just as necessary a part of ending this insurgency, just as establishing a security force that can stand on its own two feet and put the beat-down on runaway militia groups.
As I have advocated before, I think a necessary component of success in Iraq is eventual US troop withdrawal. As long as US troops are on the streets, I think we will always see a Sunni insurgency, and there will always be a magnet to attract foreign fighters into Iraq to oppose us.
However, unlike the cut and run folks, I don't suggest arbitrary dates for this withdrawal, but rather think a phased withdrawal linked to improved cohesiveness in the Iraqi security forces. So no arbitrary deadlines, rather we establish concrete benchmarks that are used to trigger US troop withdrawal and eventual total victory. Or as President Bush would say, As Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.
I don't agree with everything Krauthammer says here, but it's thought provoking and well worth the read.












