It’s All But Official: Hoffman Wins New York 23 Race UPDATE: Hoffman Loses

Proof  •  November 4, 2009

Update: May have been a bit hasty with this. Democrat Bill Owens has a slight edge in the race right now.
Update 2: Live results are still pouring in, but the race is pretty much over. Owens beats Hoffman by 4 points, with Scozzafava picking up 5% of the vote.
A big win in Virginia, now a big win in New York and Christie is leading in New Jersey:

De facto Republican nominee Doug Hoffman is now favored to win Tuesday’s special election in upstate New York.
Two new polls showed Hoffman with significant leads in the race, including by double digits in one of them. Yet in a contest full of anomalies, and after a weekend that included the GOP nominee’s withdrawal and cross-party endorsement, neither side is calling the race at this point.

The only problem Republicans may face now is letting their heads get too swollen with these wins. Republicans have to show that they earned these victories. Not that they won because people got fed up with Democrats.

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  • http://Array sayanything-51

    Yes C, this is a huge loss for Palin, Limbaugh, Fox, Beck, Teagrabbers, Wingnut Extremists, Rugged Individualists, The gop, Hanty, Levin, Coulter, Malkin, Stern Daddy statists, Corporate run amoksters heck this is a crushing repudiation of the very anti American lunatic ideology they stand for.

    If only good riddance were good enough.

  • sayanything-51

    Could be, but the guy was a real honest to God con, and even in that conservative district they went with a Dem.
    I do not in anyway discount the carpetbagger aspect to the con movement though.

    Poor rugged individualists, gotta feel sorry for them right about now.
    They so needed a validation of some kind.

    Oh well. There is always another tea party, I guess.

  • sayanything-45

    I don’t put much stock in by elections or whatever Americans call them but you often glean stuff which makes for interesting discussion. I was struck by this observation at Worldmag.com

    Republicans have said that this year’s elections are a referendum on President Obama. That might be the case – I would also ask, might this be a referendum on Sarah Palin?
    The two Republican gubernatorial campaigns rebuffed Palin’s offers to stump. They won, and largely on independent voters. Doug Hoffman, the third party candidate in the NY-23 election who Palin endorsed, is by all appearances losing.

    Too lazy to tag so copy and paste: http://online.worldmag.com/2009/11/03/a-referendum-on-palin/

  • sayanything-51

    How is it that nutters are always making sheet up all the time?

    Sure is funny though.

    Where is the Big 180 when we need his insight into this great victory for the cons tonight?

  • http://www.newshounds.us/ Fox Needs Us

    “I think we are going to get into a very difficult environment around the country if suddenly conservative leaders decide they are going to anoint people without regard to local primaries and local choices.”–Newt Gingrinch”

    Newt is out of touch. We need to vote for the conservatives that the leadership wants. If we start ignoring Rush and Glenn, we’ll be headed down the drain. Locals don’t know enough about the big picture, and the big picture is what matters. The locals just vote for whoever will be best for them, whoever will bring the pork.

  • sayanything-9974

    If this becomes official it will take a lot of spin to make this look good for the Dem/Libs. I am confident they will have some intersting take on it – Probably talk radio or Fox news is to blame. Anything but the truth. Barack, Reid, Pelosi – can you hear us yet. The people are buying what you are selling (just like GM). 2010 is fast approaching – Addios muthaf*ck*rs.

  • farm4money

    by the way, how many dead voted? where was acorn? another stolen election by the democheats

  • sayanything-51

    When did 6 years turn into long-term?

  • sayanything-106

    Hey dumb@$$ the GOP took the NJ gov and the Virgina Gov two places that NOBAMA campaigned for. The new jersey one will sting because it shows that in a leftist bastion barry couldn’t steal this election.

  • sayanything-45

    This lazy man thanks you. ;)

  • sayanything-12

    HG:

    Okay, so you’re saying Scozza gave the election to the democrat

    No I’m not saying that.

    What I’m saying is outside pressure forcing Scozzafava out of the running is what cost the Republicans the election. The loss in my estimation was due to the (rightful) perception of undue interference by external groups in this election.

    Scozzafava’s withdrawal was the archetype for “winning the battle but losing the war”.

  • sayanything-12

    farm:

    Explain why it’s your business, once again. It’s not your district. Butt out.

    It’s not my business.

    And it’s not yours.

    OK?

    the out of state interest should butt out by your standards.

    In general I agree… no arguments there.

    But there is one thing to funneling money into a state or district. There is another in trying to change who runs on local tickets.

    That latter is really bad form, as this race proved. Even the former can lead to a backlash if it is seen as “undue influence”.

    I’m reminded of the story of a Northern reporter who asked a captured Rebel why he was fighting against the Yankees. Expect an explanation on the right of succession or some such, the reporter was shocked when the Rebel simply replied “because you guys are on my land.”

    Nobody likes other people to push into their business. It’s that simple. And beyond that, it’s against our system of government for a minority to try and dictate who other people run for office in their local area. At least that’s the way I see it.

  • sayanything-12

    HG:

    Really? Pure nonsense? Scozza got 6% and Hoffman 46% to Owens 49%. This in spite of the infighting and Scozza’s endorsement of Owens.

    Hoffman lost a 15-point lead when Scozzafava dropped (20-point swing in one week), no thanks to people outside of the district who thought they knew better than locals how to run a local election.

    Sparkie:

    Rob says “I favor conservative candidates who promote limited government.” but he doesn’t actually support limited government because he thinks its fine to interfere in local politics from afar>

    I hate to say Sparkie’s got a point here.

    How is North Dakotan’s having a say in district-23 politics anything other than nationalist politics? This is exactly the opposite of what Republicanism originally stood for.

    Exactly the opposite.

  • sayanything-4124

    Where are you getting those numbers? I don’t see that at all. There isn’t nearly enough of the vote in to even guess.

  • farm4money

    Explain why it’s your business, once again. It’s not your district. Butt out.

    Dorgan has 4 million $ of out of ND money to spend on buying a senate seat to rep. ND. Therefore, he should turn all that money he got selling ND’s senate vote in to the ND treas. dept. (it is ND’s vote, not his. he is only there to push the button for what ND wants, NOT WHAT HE WANTS) and because this is a ND seat no funds from out of state should be used.
    the out of state interest should butt out by your standards.

  • sayanything-12

    HG, what pure nonsense. You guys screw up and you just make excuses.

  • HG

    Sparkie, so Rob’s desire to see a conservative defeat a rino in NY is evidence he doesn’t support limited government exactly how? Stating an opinion as a private citizen is hardly akin to government interference. Aren’t you suppose to be smart or something?

    Look at the polls prior to the big endorsements Hoffman received.
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/10/ny23_poll_hoffman_33_owens_32.asp

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1009/Poll_Owens_35_Scozzafava_30_Hoffman_23.html#

    There was no way in hell Scozza would have won this.

  • farm4money

    Scozzafava was an insain selection by the party bosses.
    Radical leftist liberals belong in the democrat party.
    She showed what a piece of crap loyal republican she WAS when as a sore looser she endorsed the democrat.
    She needs to switch partys, opps, she needs to stay a democrat, but stop pretending to be republican.
    She was behind the conservative because not enough people wanted her, period. She has no one to blame for that but herself, but being a liberal she will not do that.
    Palen had no more effect on this race than did newt who endorsed scuzzy. People vote for who is running not some twitter acct. endorsement.

  • sayanything-12

    Bob are obviously smarting from major losses in New Jersey and Virginia. So if winning the prize in a flea circus is your idea of vindication, go for it man!

  • sayanything-12

    Rob:

    Of course I have a set of criteria. So do you.

    Um… when it comes to their district, it’s their business, and none of yours and none of mine.

    If you want to impose the condition that only candidates that North Dakota’s approve of can run for New York seats, then this movement is well on the way to becoming an asterix in the history books.

    Frankly, I’d rather have a Dem in this House seat than Scozzafava.

    Explain why it’s your business, once again. It’s not your district. Butt out.

  • HG

    Okay, so you’re saying Scozza gave the election to the democrat. What a loyal republican that Scozza is.

  • HG

    Scozza was polling ‘out of the race’ Sunday.

    “The numbers: Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Owens had 35%, Scozzafava 30%, and Hoffman 23%.”

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/poll-ny-23-dem-and-conservative-in-tight-race-republican-in-third.php

  • sayanything-12

    HG, look at the last poll before Scozzafara left. Hoffman was ahead by 15% up to that point. I can dig it up if you can’t find it (look on Instapundit, I think he has a link to it).

  • sayanything-12

    Bob:

    Oh by the way, thank you, thank you very much.

    Don’t thank me for the first Democratic win in District-23 since 1841. Thank Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and everybody else who wants to run other people’s lives for them.

  • sayanything-1254

    Lets be careful… at 10:07 EST, with 21% of the vote in, Owens is leading Hoffman 51% to 43%…

  • sayanything-12

    I think we are going to get into a very difficult environment around the country if suddenly conservative leaders decide they are going to anoint people without regard to local primaries and local choices.”–Newt Gingrinch

    Kind of my take too.

  • HG

    Sparkie, Carrick, Scozza got out so the dem would have a stronger chance. With her in the race it looked like a Hoffman win.

  • sayanything-12

    Again, Sparkie, that is a very clear explanation. Stay off the glue, j/k, lol, your cognitions are much clearer.

    HG, Rob had a link to the 15-point lead. At one time it was 19-points.

    Also wanted to bring this up from a previous thread, since bob is such a total a$$ most of the time, and shoving his arrogance back in his face is always worth it:

    If by “long term incumbent” you mean only 6 years in office, why yes, he is a long term incumbent.

    I guess I should start LMAO at your stupid point now, huh? McHugh was in office since 1992 representing that same area. It was renumbered from the 24th district to the 23rd district in 2000. He was a state senator for that area before that, so yeah, he was a long-term incumbent.

  • sayanything-12

    Bob:

    How is it that nutters are always making sheet up all the time?

    Oh! You mean like Whistler making up the fact that McHugh being a long-term incumbent.

    LOL. Way to go there “Mr. Reality” type guy. You’re our inspiration.

  • HG

    Carrick,

    Really? Pure nonsense? Scozza got 6% and Hoffman 46% to Owens 49%. This in spite of the infighting and Scozza’s endorsement of Owens.

  • ec99

    You really jumped the gun of this one.

  • sayanything-51

    It’s all butt official.

    Oh by the way, thank you, thank you very much.

  • sayanything-12

    I dunna Bob. I think it had nothing to do with a repudiation of Republicanism or anything else.

    I think it’s more like a victory for the “stay out of my backyard, you varmits” movement.

    Not that I wanted to interfere with your wet dreams or anything. >.>

  • sayanything-12

    Rob:

    That would be a good choice…if Scozzafava had actually been a local chocie.

    They didn’t hold a primary. Even if Hoffman loses, that lack of a primary by the Republican establishment (and people like Gingrich) who tried to anoint their own candidate was the problem.

    She was the local choice, using the same process that had been in place for 100 years.

    Let’s be honest though, it’s not the process by which she was selected for this special election that matters, it’s the candidates politics that you don’t approve of.

    Think about that Rob. You have a set of criteria that you are willing to impose on other local district for who and who is not a good candidate for their district.

  • HG

    Scozzafava wouldn’t have come close to Owens. At least Hoffman made it a race. Without Scozzafava, it would likely have been a Hoffman win. But Rob is right. A dem win is better than another rino Obama could look to for bipartisan support. Now let’s see Owens support Obamacare after this close election.

  • farm4money

    Like i said before, then why the hell does Dorgan have 4 million of out of state money to run a campain here in ND …….. he should turn the money into the state treas. or at least have to pay income taxes on it like the rest of us working slobs.

  • sayanything-12

    Rob:

    This is a “too many Republicans still don’t get it” problem

    And using this “I get to tell everybody else who they have to vote for” there will be a lot fewer Republicans to “don’t get it”. So that part works.

  • sayanything-12

    Bill Owens has won by the way.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Of course I have a set of criteria. So do you.

    I favor conservative candidates who promote limited government. And given the decisions the New York 23 representative will make in Washington DC once there will impact my life too, I have a right to advocate for it.

    This isn’t a localism issue. This is a “too many Republicans still don’t get it” problem.

    Frankly, I’d rather have a Dem in this House seat than Scozzafava. At least Republicans will oppose the liberal Democrat instead of making excuses for the liberal Scozzafava.

  • sayanything-6955

    Its going to be the trifecta! They can spin it anyway they want, this is a conservative resurgence.

  • sayanything-81

    HG
    If you don’t understand from what I have said above, then there is nothing more I can say to ‘splain it to you. Small government means local control. Not only a few guys picked by the party heads. Do you get that? Pluralism is premised on the idea that diversity of ideas always lands one of the better ideas in view. No local control and no diversity makes for a problematic situation. How are you going to convert anyone? Looking for a permanent minority party? I don’t think you are. I think also by insulating yourself from other opinions you come to overestimate the popular support present for those opinions.

    More than anything, YANKEE conservatives value pluralism still and do not value flatlander, downstater input into local affairs. Their representative is supposed to represent them. That is the premise behind even having a representative. Hence the name of the position. None of this needs explaining. You guys intentionally obfuscate the situation to preach ideological purity. It’s biting you in the TUKKUS. Try it in NH. You’ll find you have similar problems. Vermont remains, historically, one of the most Republican states in the country. This is, of course, from back when you guys were more tolerant. The problems began with Reagan and courting the Christians who prefer to federalize moral laws. Its been downhill since then with the pleasant exception of BUSH sr.

  • sayanything-81

    If Hoffman didn’t run, Scozzafava would have won. HG is wrong wrong wrong. She had GOP and independent endorsements. From NY GOP and NY independent party.

    Now the bullet-proof a-hole conservative ‘purists’ will sit around and generate excuses like usual. Almost too difficult to watch. And it’s the party of ‘personal responsibility’ who blames everything on everyone else.

    Carrick is slapping some sense into you folks. Good.

    Rob says “I favor conservative candidates who promote limited government.” but he doesn’t actually support limited government because he thinks its fine to interfere in local politics from afar. Put your money where your mouth is or quiet down. Limited government is not the Shiavo-style intervention that was attempted here. Local control is the heart of limited government. The representative is of the district, not of the purest theoretical ideology on offer… which individuals all nec. deviate from in one particular or another.

    Rob and all the goons will just go into DUMb excuse generating mode to put up a forcefield around all there cherished, exclusionary, big-government-in-disguise beliefs. HAve at it. (laughs)

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Hey, pal, why don’t you stick to one nickname and quit this pretending to be a conservative crap.

  • sayanything-6955

    Ask Corzine.

  • sayanything-4416

    ACORN stole the election. LOL

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    That would be a good choice…if Scozzafava had actually been a local chocie.

    They didn’t hold a primary. Even if Hoffman loses, that lack of a primary by the Republican establishment (and people like Gingrich) who tried to anoint their own candidate was the problem.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Good point. I may have jumped the gun a bit on this one.

    Right now Owens has a slight lead. Let’s hope Hoff gets back in it.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport
  • sayanything-81

    The question is: How could a putative conservative movement ever align itself against the “stay out of my backyard, you varmints” movement?

    It’s bass akwards.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Yeah, I did. I read that Hill article wrong.

    Teach me to post while talking on the radio at the same time.

  • sayanything-101

    It’s not a good night for residents of Slackerville.

  • sayanything-4416

    New Jersey has a history of electing republican governors:

    47 Brendan Byrne January 15, 1974–January 19, 1982 Democratic
    48 Thomas Kean January 19, 1982–January 16, 1990 Republican
    49 James Florio January 16, 1990–January 18, 1994 Democratic
    50 Christine Todd Whitman January 18, 1994–January 31, 2001 Republican
    51 Donald DiFrancesco January 31, 2001–January 8, 2002 Republican
    AG John Farmer Jr. January 8, 2002 Republican
    AG John O. Bennett January 8, 2002–January 12, 2002 Republican A
    AG Richard Codey January 12, 2002–January 15, 2002 Democratic
    52 Jim McGreevey January 15, 2002–November 15, 2004 Democratic
    53 Richard Codey November 15, 2004–January 17, 2006 Democratic
    54 Jon Corzine January 17, 2006- Democratic Governor

    What stings is your loss of NY-23. That was your major stand and a huge defeat for conservatives.

  • sayanything-4416

    How’s that resurgence going? LOL

  • sayanything-4416

    I can already hear the excuse that Scuzzlebutt lost the race for the “real” conservative.

    I think Glenn Beck’s late endorsement and Hoffman’s saying that Beck was an inspiration killed jis chances of winning a district that had been republican since 1872.

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