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Saturday, October 30, 2004

Iraq Civilian Casualties Report Highly Inaccurate

Recently a study made on the number of civilian casualties in Iraq has been getting a lot of attention in the press, mostly because it suggests that 100,000 civilians have died as a result of the U.S. invasion of that country. I previously posted my skepticism as to this study here and here.

And now, here's yet another reason to be skeptical of the study (via Wizbang).

Slate - The report's authors derive this figure by estimating how many Iraqis died in a 14-month period before the U.S. invasion, conducting surveys on how many died in a similar period after the invasion began (more on those surveys later), and subtracting the difference. That difference--the number of "extra" deaths in the post-invasion period--signifies the war's toll. That number is 98,000. But read the passage that cites the calculation more fully:

We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during the post-war period.

Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you, I'll spell it out in plain English--which, disturbingly, the study never does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in plain language--98,000--is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast range.)

This isn't an estimate. It's a dart board.


Indeed.

One has to assume that the media has people working for it who are more familiar with these type of studies than the average layman. With that assumption in mind, how sad is it that the media has chosen once again to report on only the part of the story that furthers their political agenda?

Comments

Avatar for Say Anything » Iraqi Civilian Casualties At

[...] I’ll wait until some independent experts analyze these findings and weigh in with their opinions on the methods used before I say much, but I’m certainly more inclined to believe the numbers quoted above than those put forth by the Lancet study (which had civilian casualties at around 100,000) put out last year. Will the hysterical, anti-war left set aside their support of the previous report in favor of these numbers which, as of right now, look far more reasonable or will they continue to try and hype the outrageous findings of the Lancet report? [...]

Avatar for Say Anything - North Dakota’s Most Popular P

[...] One of the pillars of the anti-war movement is the “high level” of civilian casualties, or “collateral damage,” seen in Iraq. Numerous studies have been done on this topic (one Lancet study put the number of civilian casualties at 100,000 over a year ago), but Logic Times points out some fallacies in the numbers being reported in these studies. One of the foundation blocks of anti-war protest against the United States in Iraq is civilian casualties, which viscerally represents a country in ruin, a tragic human face on Bush’s warmongering. This perspective, of course, ignores the civilian carnage during the reign of Saddam Hussein (see Fuzzy Moral Math) and instead focuses on the perceived chaos in Iraq today. And this newfound concern for Iraqi civilian life is not only a staple of the anti-war Left, it is a convenient club wielded by mainstream Democrats in Washington, who argue that chaos in Iraq represents failed policy… [...]

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