Uhhhh. Not so sure.

Remember the Tanker War?

Chinese-made Silkworm missiles were attacking oil tankers running down the Gulf of Hormuz.

The Tanker War was not a happy time. Attacks resulted in damage to nearly 550 civilian vessels, witnessed Silkworm strikes on tankers in port in Kuwait and included unfortunate developments such as the Iraqi targeting of the USS Stark and the USS Vincennes’ downing a civilian Iranian jetliner.

Or even the French-made Exocets used against the English in the Falklands war?

Face it, most commercial vessels are not equipped with the chaff dispensers, Aegis or even Vulcan anti-ship missile systems that would help them survive such an attack. Indeed, these large vessels usually are manned by a small, Third-World crew and are vulnerable even to small powerboats carrying automatic weapons and RPG’s — the weapons of choice for modern-day pirates and terrorists.

Check out shipping attacks off the Straits of Malacca, Hormuz, Nigeria, Sri Llanka.

Also, whether they are just bragging or trying to scare us off from intervening in the area militarily, the Iranians now claim to have former Soviet subs and state that they have the high-speed super-cavitating Skvall torpedo.

But then again, you already knew all this before you started writing — right?

Woof, I’d have to guess that the Persians thankfully won’t be led by General Ripper, and also that officers in the Navy just MIGHT be studying the results of that particular war game.

Yes, asymmetrical warfare can be really difficult, but when the alternative is shutting down the free world, maybe our Navy is willing to do what needs to be done here.

One other thing to note; when the issue really is the operation of the rest of the world, the war plan doesn’t just involve Iranian forces on the coast. It begins to involve Teheran–just like Bismarck noted to the Reichstag when members were concerned that France had more troops near German colonies in Africa then Germany did; he more or less said that they can attack Cameroon to their heart’s content, but at the cost of war on the Rhine.

Do we think that Iran really wants “war on the Rhine”?

Gents,

One of the flies in this ointment is that Putin (old Soviets in new bottles.. to mix metaphors) has warned against taking any military action against Iran.

Evidently, they have interests in the region, my guess prolly for the same reasons we were interested in the region when the Shah was in power — oil and strategic location. It sits astride a strategic choke-point and has vast natural reserves of petroleum.

When the UN Oil-for-Food scandal broke, it turns out that the embargo wasn’t really hurting Iraq in the least, since, the military and political leadership were getting fat off the graft in the deals taking place behind the scenes, with Russia being one of the culprits. My guess is that Iran has taken Iraq’s place as a supply for oil to the neo-Soviets.

I also dimly recall that there was some deal concerning a pipeline being constructed through that region, although that’s probably not the crux — but a side-issue, if at all.

At any rate, small, third-rate powers may seem ripe to be attacked, which is why they seek the shelter of big brothers.

WWI — Serbia->Russia ; Austro-Hungary->Prussia

Korean War — North Korea–>Red China

Next War? Iran–>Russia?

Just a thought.

IRAN’S PEACE AND PROSPERITY
By working closely with the Europeans in cultural exchanges, trading oil for technology; and by totally ignoring the continuous provocations by Israel’s Judeo-fascists and the politically desperate Neo-Marxists (Neo-Cons/Neo-Libs) in the American government, Iran shall achieve peace and prosperity. Her role models are contemporary India, and postwar Japan and Germany.

Tricky, Iran does not have to engage anyone’s navy. All they need do is drop hulls in the ship channels, that will effectively, for an indeterminate amount of time, close the Strait.

Not to mention simply holding tankers in berths and stopping the flow of product. There is more than one way to skin that cat.

Mmmmm!! Yea. Did it over apple wood coals. Tasty.

It is a long and honored tradition, not only in Islam, but through out the ME, to embrace the sons of your fractious provinces to your breast by making war on a neighbor. Sad fact? It works.

The problem is to weld that into a coherent whole.

2H9– you’ve been reading your Suez history comics again, you sly dog.

The Canal, 102 miles long and 38 feet deep, was jammed from one end to the other with sunken ships, boats and trucks loaded with ammunition; solidly blocked at one point with a causeway; and strewn with live artillery shells and unexploded grenades. Even worse, the Canal and its sloping banks were thought to be carpeted with mines. Clearance, therefore, would not only be difficult; it would also be extremely dangerous.

I agree with you that sinking tankers is a method of area denial. I just don’t know what the depths of Hormuz are or the underwater profile or configuration of the channel might be. Shallow depths would tend to support that strategy.

My point was that it might not just be Iranian Revolutionary Glastrons festooned with RPK and RPG-toting smelly Iranians that we might be up against. They might have used all those petrobucks to invest in a novel system or two.

Putin is nothing if arrogant, still smarting from Western encroachment into their Western frontiers, the Dayton accords and its effect on their old little brother, Serbia, and feeling just generally Russian.

Slick, imagine a giant cockroach — with unlimited strength, a massive inferiority complex, and a REAL short temper…

During the Tanker War, I actually wrote to the manufacturer of some of the Kevlar-hulled fast attack boats and suggested they rent themselves out to the oil companies.

About 2 or 3 of those babies, swinging from davits and upon the first sign of trouble, lower them away and let them light into the Iranian Guards.

The old horse-drawn fire engines used to keep a Dalmatian or two to sit between the firefighters. When dogs (who now like to chase cars) decided they wanted to chase fire-horses, they’d deploy the Dalmatians to chase the dogs off. Kinda like little furry fighter escorts.

Maybe yes maybe no.

By the way how was that lamb? Did you cook it yet?

And if the pointyheads get all soggy and hard to light? Oops, I was cleaning my gun and it just went off.

Nice try piss ant country Iran, if the Israeli’s attack Iran because they have it coming to them, the Iranians won’t have enough time to worry about shutting down the gulf. They will be too busy getting their ass kicked.

BB? Yes. The Mad Mullahs and Pres Tom do want “war on the Rhine”.

Agreed that the Mullahs probably do. I’m hoping and praying, for the sake of innocent Persians, that there are cooler heads in Teheran. I’m sure you are, too.

Big, slow, expensive boats,
cheap, fast missiles.

Nice powerful nuclear weapons. You really think the Israel will roll over to Iran’s missiles, woofie? Missiles can be tracked back to their launch sites which would probably disappear in a cloud of atoms soon after a launch.

Iran continues to play dangerous games and needs to be reminded that the USA is the biggest and most dangerous fish in the waters.

Big, slow, expensive boats,
cheap, fast missiles.