International Food Policy Council: Biofuels Responsible For 1/4 – 1/3 Of The Spike In Food Prices

Biofuels aren’t the only problem with the global food market, but they are a big problem:

The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that biofuel production accounts for between one-quarter and one-third of the recent spike in global commodity prices.
For the first time in 30 years, food riots are breaking out in many parts of the globe, including major countries such as Mexico, Pakistan and Indonesia.
The fact that America’s energy policies are creating global instability should concern the leaders of both political parties.
Restraining the dangerous effects of artificially inflated demand for ethanol should be an issue that unites both conservatives and progressives.
As a recent Time cover story pointed out, biofuel mandates increase greenhouse gasses and create incentives for global deforestation.
In the Amazon basin, huge swaths of forest are being cleared to meet the growing hunger for biofuels.

In terms of the food prices problem we might be able to offset some of the damage biofuels have done by ending a lot of the protectionism that goes on in the international food market as Tyler Cowen suggests in yesterday’s New York Times. After all, less rigid trade policies allow markets to bend to meet supply shortages and demand increases. But doing that will do nothing to stem the rising demand for biofuels which is being driven almost exclusively by government subsidies and mandates.
I, and those who feel as I do about free markets, have long warned that government shoving biofuels down the collective throats of citizens was going to result in some serious unintended consequences. Those consequences are now manifesting themselves, and while the blame can’t be put entirely at the feet of biofuels there is absolutely no denying that biofuels are exacerbating an already bad situation.

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  • http://Array ellinas

    Furthermore we can’t control droughts or other natural causes, but “we” can control ethanol subsidies and the like. By Rob on April 28, 2008 at 07:36 am

    “We”? Who is this “we” shit? I dare you to control ethanol subsidies. “We” cannot do anything but sit aroung and bitch all the while some fat cats feed off the american taxpayers largese and get fatter. Follow the $$$ sign.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I’m curious though. It seems to me that a small shortage should cause a huge run up on prices since the price doesn’t affect much of what and how much we eat.

    I think it’s hard to judge what the price effect is.

    Furthermore we can’t control droughts or other natural causes, but we can control ethanol subsidies and the like.

    So ethanol certainly does deserve the bad name it’s getting when it comes to the cost of food.

    How many ways are we paying for ethanol.

    We’re paying at the pump.
    We’re paying taxes for the subsidies.
    And we’re paying in higher food prices.

  • carrick

    Whistler, I understand the argument, but as I’ve said before, I’ve personally had great trouble putting any quantitative number on any of this.

    Fundamentally though if natural factors (e.g.) are 10x as large a driving force, exactly how many energy are we supposed to waste worrying about the contribution from biofuels?

    How is that not exactly the same thing as regulating anthropogenic CO2 emissions, when those may only be contributing e.g. at the 10% level?

  • 2Hotel9

    But,but,but,,,,corn prices do not affect anything else!

  • carrick

    I’ll just repeat what I said over on Robert108′s thread:

    As to the IBD editorial, I would recommend you read the original source here, that report doesn’t say what Hutchison claims it said.  In fact, the report says that the primary causes are the increase in demand, the price of energy and weather related crop failures, pretty much exactly what I’ve asserted before.  Morever, I was unable to find any breakdown of numbers that gave a definitive amount to the effect of biofuels at all, leaving the effect entirely subjective.

    Hutchinson has a number of other errant comments as well:

    In the Amazon basin, huge swaths of forest are being cleared to meet the growing hunger for biofuels.

    Patently false.  Bioefuels are not produced from crops grown in the Amazon, by international treaty.  This has nothing to do with why Brazilians are clearing the rain forests (one of those factors is the “use it or lose it law” which actually demands that they develop the land, or the government will “take it back”).

    Furthermore, the trend of farmers supplanting other grains with corn is decreasing the supply of numerous agricultural products. When the supply of those products goes down, the price inevitably goes up.

    There is no such trend.  The real trend is that farmers are dropping out of the conservation program to increase their total production capacity.  As I keep pointing out, wheat production in the US increased last year in spite of wide-spread drought.  How is that a “trend” of the sort Hutchinson is describing?

    Finally, I’m not ignoring biofuels, I’m just not ignoring evidence that undermines some of the assumptions these guys like to use in making their arguments.

    Ironically I agree with nearly all of Hutchinson’s recommendations, so I don’t think we’re really debating over policy here. 

    The lack of scalability of corn-based ethanol should be enough to convince one that we need an alternative plan.  One needn’t resort to extreme exaggeration of the impact of the US governmental biofuel policies in order to make a convincing case that changes in our policy needs to be made.

  • carrick

    Whistler:

    Furthermore we can’t control droughts or other natural causes, but we can control ethanol subsidies and the like.

    Sounds like socialist-democrat logic here to me.

    We can’t stop global warming but we can stop CO2 emissions, so by God let’s stop CO2 emissions, and damn the consequences.

  • 2Hotel9

    Corn is food. Government forced ethanol production is stupid. And it is forcing distortions in the commodities futures market. There it is.

  • carrick

    Gary, there is a lot that I could mention that I didn’t. Not sure how your assembly of facts relates to anything that I said, though.

    If anything, the response of the market to increased prices undermines the argument that biofuels are having the market distortion that a lot of people are claiming that it is having.

    Even the lateness of the planting is hm… weather related. What does that tell you is the dominant driving force here?

  • carrick

    Kenny:

    Doing what you can about a problem while not fretting over what you can’t control is not “socialist democrat intelligence”. It’s intelligence.

    It’s intelligence if what you can do actually substantially addresses the problem. It’s the cost-benefit analysis that comes into decision making process of whether the intervention is worth it or not.

    CO2 is apropos because there is a debate whether human generated emissions are significantly affecting temperature. If they are not, then the economic damage from the CO2 control completely outweighs any benefit of imposing the controls to start with.

  • http://insanereindeer.blogspot.com/ Kenny

    Sounds like socialist-democrat logic here to me.
    We can’t stop global warming but we can stop CO2 emissions, so by God let’s stop CO2 emissions, and damn the consequences.

    That’s not even close to what he said. He said we can’t control the weather, but we can control subsidies. Therefore, we ignore what we can’t control and focus on what we can.

    Or in other words, we can’t stop floods, droughts, tornados, earthquakes, landslides and locusts, but we can stop our idiotic ethanol policies.

    Doing what you can about a problem while not fretting over what you can’t control is not “socialist democrat intelligence”. It’s intelligence.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Carrick I think that a small shortage in food stuffs goes a long way. How many people actually change their behavior because the cost of raw produce goes up?

    I think the information that we’d have to know is how much of total calories produced in agriculture are being diverted to ethanol production in the US, Europe and the rest of the world.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see it at somewhere around 2~3%. I think that’s enough to cause a major disruption in the food markets.

    How much surplus do we normally have? Not much.

  • Gary Gulrud

    If Carrick were so enlightened maybe he would mention planted corn will be off 6% this year mostly due to soaring soy and wheat prices.

    Corn should have been planted a week ago yet most farmers in Norhtern Iowa are yet to get into their fields. A few hours north we had snow and subfreezing temps yesterday.

    You want high prices due to biofuels, you’re gonna get ‘em.

  • carrick

    Whistler:

    Because we actually have a food shortage. And it’s definitely not a good thing. And by at least slowing down the growth of ethanol production we are probably going to help the problem.

    I think that is a good idea too. Even if I feel that biofuels is being unreasonably singled out for a “perfect storm” of different factors that have led to the current high food prices, I do think it is not wise council to push corn-based ethanol production the way that politicians have been, in any case, and certainly not given the tight food supply in the current market.

  • 2Hotel9

    ” What does that tell you is the dominant driving force here?
    Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 12:07 pm”

    Government mandated ethanol production.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    How is that not exactly the same thing as regulating anthropogenic CO2 emissions, when those may only be contributing e.g. at the 10% level?

    Because we actually have a food shortage. And it’s definitely not a good thing. And by at least slowing down the growth of ethanol production we are probably going to help the problem.

    But your points about needing qualitive information is spot on of course.

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