Hurricane Scientists Quitting Because They Can’t Predict Hurricanes Accurately
An interesting development, and a telling comment on climate science as a whole:
Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.
The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next.
Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.
Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky:
“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”
Kudos to these two for having the integrity to admit that their modeling is worthless, and being unwilling to mislead the public for the sake of their own careers.
Obviously, work needs continue toward being able to accurately model weather patterns up to and including severe storms, but it’s time to admit that right now we’re incapable of such predictions. Which undermines the claims of other climate scientists who would have us believe that their models can predict, to within a fraction of a degree, what global temperatures will be decades and centuries from now.
How can that be true when climate scientists can’t predict what a severe storm will do just weeks, days or hours later?
Tags: climate science, global warming, hurricanes
