How To Lie With Statistics: The “46 Million Uninsured” Myth

In the health care debate the favorite statistic of government health care supporters is the one which says that 46 million Americans are uninsured. But is that really accurate?
David Harsanyi points out that it’s not nearly as accurate as proponents of government health care would like you to believe. A few fun facts:
* The 46 million number is based on data from the US Census, which isn’t all that reliable. The much more reliable Congressional Budget Office puts the number at more like 31 million.
* The 46 million (or 31 million) number, whichever you choose to believe, is calculated by counting any American who is without insurance for any length of time during a given year. So if you’re without insurance for a couple of weeks while switching jobs, congratulations you’re one of the 46 million Americans who need government health care according to the liberals.
* Backing up the last fact, 45% of America’s uninsured are only without insurance for 4 months or less. Meaning that a lot of the uninsured are either between jobs, or are former dependents transitioning to their own insurance.
* Many of the uninsured already have health insurance available to them through already existing government programs. The Congressional Budget Office suggests that this number is as high as 15% of the uninsured. The Urban Institute (hardly a bastion of anti-government health care sentiment) pegs the number at 20% of the uninsured.
* And some 17.5 million of the uninsured are making $50,000/year or more. A full 9.1 million are making over $75,000/year.
When you look beyond the emotion-driven rhetoric, the sappy pictures of little poor kids whose parents can’t afford to take them to the doctor, and actually look at the numbers and the facts you see that the insurance problem in this country isn’t nearly as bad as those wanting to control your health care for you would have you believe.

Tags: , ,


«
»
  • http://Array Dave

    Carrick, I like your approach simple is sometimes better. I don’t agree 100% with you on forcing them to take on riskier clients, they already do that in the small and large group plans. They take on pre-existing conditions now. If everyone had insurance, even if the number that don’t have insurance is exaggerated, that would give them a bigger pool like the group insurance plans do. And keep in mind that the result should be decreased cost to the insurance company even though they are taking on riskier clients. I’m not picking on the insurance companies, I think they are getting a bad rapp. They are stuck in the middle between the the health care system and the customer (you and I) The little bit that I have seen the president comment on this issue, it seems he’s trying to fix this problem by fixing and blaming the insurance. That to me is like saying, I will fix an old car engine that’s getting slower by putting jet fuel in it. It cost’s more and performs better than gasoline, but it doesn’t fix the source of the problem.
    As far as “forcing” the price of a market, it seems that’s exactly what the president is trying to do by going into the insurance business. When he stated, that there needs to be competition in the insurance industry, I didn’t think he meant the government should be the competition. I’m not picking on you either Carrick, I don’t think anyone has the solution to this issue 100%. Whether we like it or not, the president and Congress are going to steamboat something through and with their track record it ain’t goin to be pretty!

    I would much rather see them do this in steps versus just a gunshot and we’re done. At least if you take small steps, you can ajust course as move forward.

  • carrick

    Dave, I don’t think all of those proposals are mutually consistent with corporate profitability for insurance companies. For one you can’t “force” the price for a market, that just doesn’t work. And if you force them to have take on riskier clients that raises their costs.

    I would have a much smaller list:

    1) tax health care benefits
    2) reduce government interference in the pharm industry (in particular open up the competition to outside of the country).
    3) consider subsidizing insurance for high risk clients

    I’m pretty sure that 46 million is highly exaggerated.

    Think about it this way: If you want to advocate change, it is in your interest to exaggerate the magnitude of the problem.

    That’s exactly what they are doing with global warming too. The scientists are saying one thing, but the advocates are basically saying that the climate science is underestimating the order of the problem. (So much for following what the science says on that.)

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    You’re right, the census bureau doesn’t track whether or not a person is in the country legally or illegally.

    However they do say in a 2007 report there are 9,737,000 non citizens in this country who do not have health insurance.

    One would think that a major percentage of those are illegal aliens.

    In actuality, there really isn’t much of a policy difference between legal and illegal aliens. They shouldn’t be here if they are a burden on the rest of us. Being uninsured makes them a potential burden.

    If you simply move this care from the emergency room to ordinary acute care physicians then we will almost automatically see benefits in terms of improved patient care and reduced medical costs.

    I’m a bit skeptical on the massive savings coming from changing from emergency room care to acute care. Certainly going to the emergency room is expensive, but not because of the care you get, but because of how many slackers you’re making up for.

    (The waiting game at the emergency room is guessing how many people are paying their way and how many aren’t.)

    Personally I think the way to handle the indigent is to have some charity clinics and do what you can for the people who can’t be bothered to pay their way without screwing up the system for people who are willing to pay their own way.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    The census bureau put out the illegal alien number. I read it a year or so ago.

    I’m out of pocket right now so I can’t search for it just now.

  • deadrody

    Don’t forget to count the 10 million illegal aliens that are included in the mythical 46 Million uninsured.

  • jimmypop

    i had employees… well paid at $50K+… that chose not to get health care. when i was younger, my pals didnt have it either.

    i still have one buddy (late 30′s i think) that doesnt have anything. he pays cash (and pays less than my deductible btw…. that pisses me off…. anyway….) when he needs meds or ER visits. hes actually saving money.

  • carrick

    Whistler:

    No, many more may be legal residents, but that 10,000,000 figure is probably a low number for the illegal aliens that are counted in the uninsured.

    10,000,000 is a very big number. We humans throw numbers like that around when all we mean is “a really big number”.

    Do you have any objective evidence that the “real number” is >= 10,000,000?

  • http://magyartruth.blogspot.com/ Chief RZ

    Might as well say 5 Billion uninsured.

    U.S. District Judge Avern Cohn said, “The defendant now stands convicted.”

    Another dirty democrat.

  • robert108

    It’s actually self-reinforcement. They create a phony need, then exaggerate it to justify confiscating more of our earnings. Nice hustle!

  • Dave

    I can’t comment on the validity of the numbers, but it would not surprise me as being more accurate than not. I would like to make a point or observation. Since this topic of health care reform has been thrown out on the table, I haven’t heard anyone truely get to the bottom of this. All I have heard is that the cost of health care is too high and people can’t afford it and we need reform.

    Well, reform in the dictionary means to rectify or improve something that is wrong or unsatisfactory. Now, the so called unsatisfactory issue with health care seems to be the high cost. O.K. follow me and see if this makes sense. If I were in the drivers seat (President/Congress), I would need to find out what is the cause that drove the health care cost up, since that’s probably what we need to reform, right? Since no one has come out and said what it is, I have been trying to figure this out. I believe I have a better picture now and here is what I see as the problem.

    In the past 10 years, the cost of health care has risen quicker than the cost of living. The hospitals and doctors say that over the past 10 years they are writing off more expenses because more people don’t have insurance and can’t pay for their health care visits. So, I see this as the chicken or the egg…which came first. The answer is it doesn’t matter because it’s a vicious circle. The hospitals and doctors raise prices to cover the uninsured, the insurance companies (which are in the middle of this thing) raise premiums to cover the higher medical costs, which causes people to either not buy or drop their insurance. See where this is going?

    O.K. I ask you, is the answer to throw more money into a government insurance program, raise taxes to cover this and probably eliminate private health insurance?

    Or, do we control the root problem by increasing the number of insured people to drive down the cost at the hospitals and doctors, which would give the private insurance companies bigger pools to draw from, which would reduce the insurance premiums, which would make it more affordable for people to buy health insurance?

    What if:

    1. require everyone to carry health insurance (just like auto coverage)
    2. require hospitals and doctors to control costs and reduce fees (maybe a tax incentive if they do, and a penalty if they don’t)
    3. require insurance companies to reduce premiums, since they will have more clients, a bigger pool to draw from, and lower costs from hospitals and doctors.
    4. require insurance companies to accept all people even with pre-existing conditions. (they don’t have to now on individual plans, group plans they are required to via HIPPA)
    5. require every state insurance commission to work with each other to be consistent with coverage features. (currently each state commission sets their own standards, so a health insurance company can’t have the same features in a policy for every state. Each state dictates what they will accept or not.) It shouldn’t be more appealing to be in one state or another to get better insurance.

    This doesn’t take into account that the drug companies have driven the cost of prescription medications through the roof. Why should a tiny syringe with a prescription drug to control the white blood count for a patient taking Chemotherapy cost $7000? Why can you go to Mexico or Canada and get prescription medications for much less than in the USA?

    I’m done, thanks for listening.

  • carrick

    By the way, I agree with Rob that this 46 million is probably inflated (if you don’t include illegal immigrants at least).

    It illustrates the problems for the left:

    They love to exaggerate the extent of problems because it makes it easier to sell their socialistic policies.

    Trouble is, it also artificially inflates the estimate of how much those socialistic programs will cost.

    This is a classic case of the left being hoisted with their own petards.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd
  • carrick

    Dave I recommend the first step (taxing health care benefits) because it precisely this which is distorting the market so much.

    If you make health care cheaper for some (oddly in an anti-progressive taxation scheme, those with higher incomes benefit more), then they over-subscribe to their needed amount of health care relative to those who don’t receive these tax breaks.

    That in turn drives up medical costs because if you have more demand for (potentially unneeded) medical procedures, then more demand equals higher cost for a given amount of that resource.

    Beyond that of course, the current plan discourages shopping around for the best price/product rate (unless you are really luck and your company has multiple plans available that allow you to tailor the insurance to your needs), it also penalizes you for leaving your company because you lose your insurance benefits with it (unless you are willing to pay the full amount it costs out of pocket of course).

    This current setup really benefits your company and the insurance company, you not so much.

    I’m all for a public health care insurance plan that addresses the fact that we have public health insurance plan right now of a sort via the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act, which of course requires the emergency room to provide care regardless of your ability to pay for it.

    If you simply move this care from the emergency room to ordinary acute care physicians, then we will almost automatically see benefits in terms of improved patient care and reduced medical costs.

    If we address where the current cost increases are being driven from and responsibly reform the health care bill to handle that, we have a chance of really benefiting from the program.

    The problem right now, to borrow your example, is they’ve told you that you are all of a sudden driving a corvette, and everything that needs fixing (and there are a lot of them) is now going to cost $1000 each.

    The problem they have is they have basically lied about the magnitude of the problem. That lying got people to pay attention, but now we are addressing fixing the problem as they have stipulated it to be, we find we can’t afford it.

  • waterjoe

    You forgot illegal aliens. They include at least ten million of the so-called uninsured (and probably a lot more.)

    No. About ten million are not U.S. citizens. Many of them may be legal residents.

    Just setting the facts straight.

  • carrick

    Whistler: The census bureau put out the illegal alien number. I read it a year or so ago.
    The census bureau does not collect this type of data, and as far as I know they’ve never published a report on it.

    I did find a study that estimates there are currently 11 million illegals in this country as of July 2008. That number is down 1.5 million from the year before since the crackdown on illegal immigration and the downturn in the housing market.

    I’m not saying it’s not a serious problem, just trying to keep it real.

    The study in question was done by the Center for Immigration Studies.

    They don’t take an entirely pro-illegal immigrant view as that URL link demonstrates.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    Just a thought, there are 11 million illegal aliens in this country, according to Carricks link.

    There are 9.7 million non citizens here without insurance.

    One would think that it’s much much more difficult to get insurance as an illegal alien.

    One would have to think that MOST of those non-citizens that don’t insurance are in fact illegals.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    You forgot illegal aliens. They include at least ten million of the so-called uninsured (and probably a lot more.)

    Have them go home and the problem is a lot more manageable figure.

    I also understand that a lot of the uninsured are college students. I say a special University employee tax should be used to provide coverage.

  • jimmypop

    One would have to think that MOST of those non-citizens that don’t insurance are in fact illegals.

    no. these folks have work visas, student visa, etc. id be willing to be most of these folks are covered already thru their wealthy fams (student here are not the poor ones) and their places of work (microsoft comes to mind)

  • SigFan

    I heard very similar reports from other sources over the last couple of days, but haven’t had time to verify them for myself. If these numbers are true, it does as you say show just how far the administration and congress are willing to bend the truth to get to their desired goal. They keep throwing out these “poor children” stories in a lame attempt to put a guilt or sympathy trip on those of us that resist the thought of government controlled health care/insurance (they are really two aspects of the same dilemma). My question is, isn’t SChip supposed to pick up that slack. Wasn’t that what at least part of the huge tobacco tax hikes were supposed to cover? So what they’re saying by pointing to the number of “uninsured children” is the failure of yet another of their grand entitlement schemes and the necessity for the public to pony up for another serving of crap sandwich. Why doesn’t this make sense to me?

  • http://magyartruth.blogspot.com/ Chief RZ

    It is a free choice. Period. Just like refusing to work. They refuse to purchase health insurance, car insurance, life insurance, renters insurance, even SSI/

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    No, many more may be legal residents, but that 10,000,000 figure is probably a low number for the illegal aliens that are counted in the uninsured.

    That’s an interesting point. One thing that should be required to stay here as a non-resident is paying your own insurance.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    The government has gone and made insurance FAR more expensive than it ought to be.

    These 20 year olds, just starting out, can’t afford to buy insurance because they are forced to pay the same amount as the old codgers who are far wealthier than they.

    Let people buy the coverage they want (no special interest mandates) and realistically rate it and young people won’t be as unlikely to afford it.

  • Dave

    That’s part of the reason healthcare costs have gone up also, some people choose not to buy insurance. So, if it were required, you would think it would help to reduce the costs of the write offs at the hospitals and doctors.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    When I was a young father a decade or so ago I was making pretty good money (for my age). Owned my own house. Owned my vehicles. Paid my bills. Lived comfortably, again for a young guy just starting out.

    It shocked me a little bit to learn that my little family’s income level qualified us for all sorts of “free” government services. I thought I was successful and fairly ahead of the curve, only to find out that the government found me fit for dependency.

Create a SAB Readerblog


Recent Comments

Powered by Disqus

Blog Advice and Support
Installs and Upgrades
Theme Modifications
Custom Plugins
Theme Design
Conversions and Relocations
Hacked Site Recovery
Mobile Apps Development