Here Comes The Double-Dip Recession
I’ve been warning of a double-dip recession since last year. Right now we have economic growth, and technically the recession may have ended (though it’s hard to tell looking at the state of our job markets). But most of the economic activity we’ve seen has been fueled by government deficit spending.
What happens as that spending dries up? What happens when we’re faced with paying off the deficits that spending created with higher taxes?
Another recession.
A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery—at best—in 2010. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic levels of growth which RGE forecast for H1. The U.S. faces continued challenges in H2—particularly as historic levels of fiscal stimulus fade—and appears far too close to the tipping point of a double-dip recession.
We simply cannot spend our way out of recession. In the short term we may create the appearance of recovery, but we’re putting this spending on the national credit card. One day the spending has to end. One day we have to pay off that credit card. With big, big interest.
We’re robbing from our future prosperity to fuel this so-called “jobless recovery.”



