GOP Making Gains

• September 18, 2006

Republicans appear to be gaining on the Democrats in the 2006 midterm campaign because of growing confidence in the economy, falling gas prices and President Bush’s sustained political offensive on the terrorist threat, according to pollsters and campaign strategists.
The most significant political movement in the past week or two has been in the battle for control of Congress. National preference polls on the so-called “generic ballot” question — which party’s candidate voters say they would choose — show Republicans have narrowed the once-substantial lead Democrats held and are now trailing them by three percentage points, independent pollster John Zogby said Friday.
Mr. Zogby credited the Republican Party’s sudden political turnaround to “the president’s focus on the war on terrorism, a rebound among his own base,” and the Democrats’ failure to lay out a clear plan of their own on “how are we’re going to get out of Iraq and what they would do about terrorism that’s better than the Republicans.”

I’m not a fan of generic polling. I don’t like the question “would you vote for a Democrat or Republican?” If someone is going to follow polls, I would suggest looking at each matchup, as opposed to the polls with generic quesitons.
I’m going to predict that the the Democrats gain 5-7 seats in the House and 1-3 seats in the Senate, with both sides declaring victory. The Democrats will state that they’ve made inroads into the majority and that it’s an “obvious” sign that Americans don’t like the Republican leadership, and the Republicans will say that historically the party in power has done much much worse in the 6th year of a presidency.
Either way, the spending problems won’t be fixed and Congress will ignore the problems facing Social Security and Medicare.

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http://Array robert108

I don’t expect any let up of Howard the Scream. He is so deranged he would see a victory for the DNC in lost seats in both House and Senate.

Thank God for that.
Bat One

Fly,

Exactly which is the “positive and exciting news?” The agreement in Anbar province… or the fact that the NYT published something about Iraq that wasn’t derogatory?
Bat One

Robert108,

While most people view the upcoming mid-term elections as a referendum on the Bush Presidency, I would also suggest that unless the Dems can take over both the House and the Senate, the very first casualty will be “Pinch” Sultzberger, whose “stewardship” of the Times is about to run head on into the reality you describe. The only question in my mind is whether the indictments of Lichtblau, Keller and the rest will come before the election or after, and whether the stockholders will have had enough before or after those indictments.
http://www.willisms.com/ Ken McCracken

I think a lift for the Republicans before the elections was inevitable.

People don’t even pay attention until a few weeks before the elections, and when recalcitrant Republicans who aren’t happy with Bush finally awake from their nap and realize that Nancy Pelosi really could be the next speaker of the House, suddenly a lot of the base firms up and the GOP polls rise.

I look forward to Howard Dean’s aneurysm.
FlyOnTheWall

Sorry to threadjack but:

Most Tribes in Anbar Agree to Unite Against Insurgents

Positive and exciting news coming from New York Times!
Carrick

Actually, Bat One, it’s rather odd.

But I’ve counted at least two balanced & fair articles in the New York Times during the last week.

There appears to have been a revolution, though I wasn’t invited.
Carrick

It’s not a total hijack.

If we continue to make inroads into non-aligned groups in al Anbar Province & gas prices continue to drop, then really there is nothing objective that the Democrats can complain about, other than the fact Republicans have limited the number of hours in a day to 24, and heinously restricting us to one life to live of course….

What that means in practice, is the small gains that most analysts are now making well get whittled down even further. Given the problems the Democrats are having in Connecticut and New Jersey, the Senate may end up a wash for them.
robert108

Carrick: They are probably “testing the waters” to see if really reporting the news will save them from total destruction due to sagging circulation.
Carrick

Ken, as you probably know a lot of the recent gains have been a return of the Republican base to supporting the GOP. For a while, it had been down to the mid-sixties in support, now it’s nearing its historical value.

No doubt, it is the insanity of the opposition party that is driving them somewhat reluctantly back. However, I don’t expect any let up of Howard the Scream. He is so deranged he would see a victory for the DNC in lost seats in both House and Senate.
robert108

Ken: I think the predictive factor here is the declining readership and viewership being experienced by the MSM. It not only indicates that fewer people are buying the Dem/leftie line, but it also indicates the declining influence of the MSM to guide thought along the Dem/leftie line. A double whammy, in other words.
http://sayanythingblog.com/ likwidshoe

It not only indicates that fewer people are buying the neo-con/nutter line, but it also indicates the declining influence of the FNC to guide thought along the neo-con/nutter line.

All you do is insult anymore. That tells me, by your own words, that we are on “the right path”.

Now weasel your way out of your own words. I wouldn’t expect anything less from a self-proclaimed “realitybased” one.
http://www.ourthyroids.com/ Hypothyroidism

I think such sources as poll can not and should not be trusted at all it merely for manufacturring of public consent use, its manipulative purpose is being way too excessively exersised.
realitybasedbob

R108: I think the predictive factor here is the declining viewership being experienced by the FNC. It not only indicates that fewer people are buying the neo-con/nutter line, but it also indicates the declining influence of the FNC to guide thought along the neo-con/nutter line. A double whammy, in other words.
FlyOnTheWall

Bat 1

Good news about Iraq being reported is unheard of coming from NYTimes, although you could still read in some hedging as if to say “Please don’t come true.”

Also incredibly good news that more of the world is standing up against people blowing up children at ice cream stands (Still my most odious example.) U.S. has big disagreements with many of the groups entering into the agreement, we’ve found some common ground.

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