Say Anything Blog

Just my opinon, for what it’s worth.

Despite this polls results, I think Obama would beat McCain handily if the election were held today.

In McCains favor are the large numbers of ardent, yet young, Obama fans who will mellow over time and by November will probably have plenty of excuses to not show up at the booth.

“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

I think a poll like this is wildly innaccurate. 

Many Hillary supporters will not say they are supporting Obama and vice versa.

I think the first poll after the democrats have decided on a canidate will show they are far ahead of McCain.  More so for Obama than Hillary.

Rasmussen is tracking very similar numbers for all three candidates.

Among all voters, those who identify themselves as definitely voting for Obama and McCain came in at 34%, while those definitely for Hillary came in at 32%.

Those definitely opposed to Hillary were an astounding 46% while those definitely opposed to Obama were 43%.

Those definitely opposed to McCain were 33%, making John McCain the only candidate whose negatives were fewer than his positives.

“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

L,

You maybe right, but the figures Bat quoted on negatives is enlightning.

Positive feelings can easily be eroded, while negatives seem to persist.

Many Hillary supporters will not say they are supporting Obama and vice versa.

I don’t understand..could you explain?

“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

I don’t understand..could you explain?

The fights not over yet.  Many npeople who support either Obama or Hillary are not going to state that they would support the other yet, though they likely will.  A truly accurate poll will not happen until you have both one Republican and one Democratic canidate.

Many npeople who support either Obama or Hillary are not going to state that they would support the other yet, though they likely will.  A truly accurate poll will not happen until you have both one Republican and one Democratic canidate.

Hillary’s unfavorables run right at 50%.  This poll simply confirms that half the country hates her.  Will never vote for her.  What you seem to be implying then is that the negatives on Obama are smaller than what the poll reports.  We should be able to agree that Hillary’s negatives roughly equate to the level of opposition in the poll.  That being the case, why is it that McCain has lower negatives than either of the tax hiking, big spending socialists?

You can interpret things however you want, but reality is that even though Obama gives a good speech, his populism only plays well to the far left and college kids.  College kids don’t vote.  And the rest of us that actually pay taxes are starting to see that his ideas and “change” come with a price tag.

BTW, doesn’t mean much.  Elections are not determined by popular vote.  What is important is how the candidates do in Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Oregon and New Hampshire might also be in play.

I think that it will be striking to have a Senator that has been in DC for four years go out in the Rust Belt and explain how he will create jobs and run the economy while simultaneously being for free trade but opposing NAFTA.  Wanting Fair Trade, a nebulous concept that means a situation where no US jobs go overseas, but we can force our exports on everyone.

This will be an election about defining an actual plan for the economy and healthcare.  For the engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan.  This is another election that is decided by 10 states, but probably more important than any of them is Ohio.  McCain has an advantage of proximity on Nevada and New Mexico, so assuming that the solidly Bush states stay red and the solid Dem states stay blue, we are talking about the purple states here.

One thing we have seen is that Hispanics tend to like Hillary far more than Obama.  They also have flocked to McCain because he connects with them.  I don’t think Obama’s strong support among blacks helps him at all because Dems carry the demographic 90-10 anyway.  Maybe it is 95-5.  This is critical in New Mexico, AZ, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, and Florida.  McCain will do very well for precisely the reasons that Conservatives dislike the guy.

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Check the map from 2004 and go state by state.

One would expect analytically that Obama’s negatives would go up over time, especially giving the mud slinging that Hillary’s been engaged in.  And McCain, absent a real competition at the moment, is generally going to be seen in a more positive light that he would in a real head-to-head race.

That said, I don’t think Hillary’s electable, especially against McCain.  I don’t have a real feel how a Obama McCain race would work out, though the media clearly likes Obama a lot.

The fact that Obama is the most liberal Senator in the entire Senate makes some Democrats a bit nervous (they are concerned about a repeat of McGovern).  If Obama overhauled his campaign promises, he would be the shoe-in victor, but I don’t see him running as an extreme liberal being a selling point to the center or right (about 65% of the voters).

It all comes down to how successfully they shill for him.  They suck at their job, so I will make a prediction that they will fail at it, and the general public will recognize him for the left-of-Ted candidate that he truly is.  Then if they vote for him, it will be a real endorsement for a change to a liberal-social climate.

Nine months is a long time, politically that is.

“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry