Gallup: Expect The Next Government Jobs Report To Be Worse
Grim news from the pollsters at Gallup who aren’t at all optimistic for signs of economic turn around in the next government jobs report:
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 10.0% in mid-October — essentially the same as the 10.1% at the end of September but up sharply from 9.4% in mid-September and 9.3% at the end of August. This mid-month measurement confirms the late September surge in joblessness that should be reflected by the government’s Nov. 5 unemployment report. …
The decline in part-time workers wanting full-time work has led to a situation in which underemployment is declining even as unemployment is increasing. The 18.6% mid-October underemployment figure (the sum of the 10.0% unemployed and the 8.6% employed part time but wanting full-time work) is down slightly from 18.8% at the end of September and is the same as the reading in the middle of last month. …
In this regard, Gallup modeling suggests the government’s unemployment rate report for October will be in the 9.7% to 9.9% range when it is released Nov. 5. The government’s last report showed the U.S. unemployment rate at 9.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, as Gallup anticipated. In addition to seasonal adjustments, the official unemployment rate is likely to be held down by a continued exodus of people from the workforce. It is easy for potential workers to become discouraged when the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 9% through the end of 2011.
Ed Morrissey adds:
Even the good news about the decline of underemployment is suspect, Gallup notes. Because the topline unemployment figures keep rising, it appears that the decrease isn’t coming from part-timers finding full-time jobs. Instead, they could be losing their jobs and dropping out of the workforce figures.
As I’ve been saying for a while now, these elevated levels of unemployment are the new normal. At least until we get around to cutting the government back down to something the private sector can actually afford.Tags: Economy, gallup, jobs, unemployment