Fourth Publication Projects Heitkamp Losing ND Senate Race

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When Heidi Heitkamp first jumped into North Dakota’s Senate race, Democrats tried to make a splash with a couple of polls (from Democrat polling firms) showing her beating Rep. Rick Berg who is the endorsed Republican candidate.

Those polls, despite being obvious party propaganda, swayed some political prognosticators for a while (Larry Sabato, in particular, seems taken in by them) but in rankings of Senate races from four different publicans Heitkamp’s candidacy is given pretty short shrift.

The Washington Post, The National Journal and The National Review are all picking Berg over Heitkamp, and you can add The Week to that list as well:

Conrad’s retirement was met with joy by the state and national GOP, but we’re now hearing whispers “that Berg just isn’t a particularly good candidate,” says Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Republicans seem “legitimately worried that he might boot away what should be a relatively easy pickup opportunity.” Democrats, meanwhile, “believe that this is their sleeper race of the cycle, arguing that Heitkamp is underrated,” says The Washington Post’s Blake. But she’ll probably have to outperform Obama by 10 percentage points to upset Berg.

That’s not exactly a strong endorsement of Berg, but a) I think some in the national media are still putting far too much stock in that early Democrat polling and b) I think there’s an element of trying to manufacture a horse race here (which is very, very good for media ratings) where there isn’t one.

Barring some major scandal or gaffe for Berg, Heitkamp doesn’t stand a chance.

Rob Port is the editor of SayAnythingBlog.com. In 2011 he was a finalist for the Watch Dog of the Year from the Sam Adams Alliance and winner of the Americans For Prosperity Award for Online Excellence. In 2013 the Washington Post named SAB one of the nation's top state-based political blogs, and named Rob one of the state's best political reporters. He writes a weekly column for several North Dakota newspapers, and also serves as a policy fellow for the North Dakota Policy Council.

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  • Blackout25

    The fact that so many people in this state have come to the conclusion that she can’t ever seem to tell the truth is going to sink her for sure. 

  • http://nofreelunch.areavoices.com/ Kevin Flanagan

    Poor “Heidi.” http://i13.tinypic.com/6g0puz9.gif

  • Guest

    Once Rick Berg crushes Duane Sand in the GOP primary in June, he’ll have little troube beating Heidi Mary Katherine Heitkamp in November. Barring a scandal or a major gaffe on Berg’s part, Heidi has two chances of winning…slim and none.

    • Rick Olson

      I predict Berg will beat Heidi by at least 20 points come the Nov. 6th general election. This will be the first time in generations that all three of North Dakota’s congressional seats will have been occupied by Republicans at the same time.

      • borborygmi

        I think you are very close in that prediction.

        • Political Observer

          The last time Heidi Heitkamp took a whipping at the ballot box was during the 2000 gubernatorial race when now-Senator John Hoeven defeated Heidi in that year’s governor’s race.  Everyone knows that’s why Heidi begged out of the U.S. Senate race two years ago, so she wouldn’t suffer another embarrassing defeat against the immenselt-popular Hoeven. 

          Given that the Democrats’ cupboard is pretty bare and their bench is weak, the Dem-NPL’ers turn once again to Heidi in this year’s race against we assume will be Rick Berg. 

          I predict that Heidi will be “taking one for the team” once again, and will likely lose to Berg. 

      • Jay

        The last time North Dakota had two Republican Senators and a Republican occupying its lone House seat was 1903. Shortly thereafter, the state added a second House seat but maintained an all-GOP delegation. This would be the norm for the next few decades, the longest stretch being from 1945 when Milton Young entered the Senate to 1959 when Quentin Burdick entered the House. Since North Dakota reverted to a single House seat following the 1972 elections, Republicans have never held both Senate seats and the House seat, though they held one Senate seat and the House seat till 1981 and held onto their Senate seat till Mark Andrews departed the Senate in 1987, leading to 24 years of solid Dem dominance of the state’s congressional delegation.

        • Jay

          Sorry. The longest stretch when North Dakota had an all-GOP delegation was actually from 1911 to 1945 when John Moses entered the Senate and died within two months to be replaced by Milton Young. My mistake.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GGQZIXE7MV35GBOFHDPZ5ECJ5A Rulz

         Which would be a good thing since communists, environmentalists and socialists now control the democrats.

        If you think “moderates” exist in this era, just look at how Pelosi, Reid and Barack got “moderate democrats” to sell out on ObamaCare.

        Heck, Ol Joe Manchin and Collin T. Peterson didn’t even need a bribe to oppose repeal.

  • $8194357

    But her ads say she has deep ND roots and “values”…

    • Rick Olson

      Earl Pomeroy always pounded in his campaign advertisements, “North Dakota Values at work.”  Really nothing new about that.  I think most rational people realize that people will promise anything to get elected and once they get into office, the promises are almost never kept.

      • $8194357

        These “politicians” made fun of Reagan as a B movie actor from Hollywood, but their campain commercials are the “real” joke…

        So Rick,
        When did “We the People” lose our Constitutionally protected property rights to the INCORPERATED government land owners?

        Never did get back to me on that “little” Constitutional” issue about Measure 2 and I have oft wondered what your thoughts were on that subject…

        God Bless now Hear?
        7point62

      • $8194357

        For your information Rick….

        http://www.nebraskarepublic.org/

        Quote:
        The original United States that was in operation until 1860; a collection of sovereign Repeublics in the Union. Under the original Constitution the “states” controled the Federal Government; the Federal government did not control the States and had very little authority.
        The original United States has been usurped by a seperate and different United States formed in 1871. Which only the distric of Columbia and its territories, and which is actually a “corperation” (the United States Corperation) that acts as our current government….The United States Corperation operates under Corperate/Commercial/Public Law rather than Common Law.

        The original Constitution was “never” removed; it has simply been “dormant” since 1871….It is still intact to this day…..This “fact” was made clear by Supreme court Justice Marshall Harlan
        (Downes vs.Bidwell 182, U/S. 244 1901)
        by giving the following dissenting opinion:

        “Two national governments excist; one to be maintained under the Constitution, with all its restrictions; the other to be maintained by Congress outside and independently of that instrument.

        The Restore America Plan reclaimed the De Jure institutions of government of the 50 State Republics in order to restore Common Law that represents the voice of the people and ends Corperate Law that ignores the voice of the people while operating under Maritime/Admiralty/International Law….This occured when warrents delivered to all 50 Governors on March 30, 2010…

        The rewritten Constituion of the United States Corperation bypasses the “original” Constitution for thee United States of America, which explains why our Congressmen and Senetors don’t ABIDE BY IT, and the President can write Excecutive Orders to do whatever he/she wants…

        They are following “corperate law” that COMPLETELY strip “sovereigns” of their GOD GIVEN unaliable rights…..Corperate/Comercial/Public Law is NOT sovereign (private), as it is an agreement between two or more parties under contract, Common Law (which sovereigns opurate under) is not Commercial Law; it is personal and private…

        End quote

        It is what it is…Not what ever they choose to call it.
        DC has stolen labor, wealth and real propeerty to the tune of ????? since this “incorperation” into the soviet steering commitee structures used since ?????

        Time for “Real Americans” to stand up and tell em the 16 trillion debt belongs to DC and its water boys and girls and not “We the People”, huh?
        In Liberty and Faith
        7point62

    • borborygmi

      SHe does just like Berg. Subsidies and/or tax breaks for the Farmers, Coal, Oil, Wind.

  • Ken

    Larry Sabato is IMO 1 of the very best professional prognosticators anywhere. . .
    BUT:  IMO this shows that even the best can get it wrong sometimes;  i.e.:  Have to wonder who the stated ”whispers we hear” came from.  + would guess even Sabato & his associates don’t spend a whole lot of time researching a wide variety of sources in ND. 
    In any case:  4 sure they got last part of their ND analysis right:  GOP Presidential nominee (baring something hugely extraordinary will be Mitt Romney) will win ND by a LONG mile.

    • Jay

      Sabato is pretty hit and miss in his analysis.

  • Rick Olson

    Looks like we have a spammer in our midst!!

  • Rick Olson

    To dovetail on an earlier comment, let’s say by some fluke Heidi actually gets elected. The day she raises her right hand in the well of the U.S. Senate and says, “I do,” on the day she’s officially sworn into office, she will be expected to cowtow to Harry Reid and toe the Democrats’ party line.  It’s like members of Congress are not allowed to think for themselves. They are expected to toe their respective party leaders’ line. 

    If Heidi truly tries to carry out the will of the people who elected her, I can just hear the stern warning…”You’ll lose your magic decoder ring for that one, Heitkamp!” 

    • boborygmi

      She will be expected to toe the line and kowtow to the party leaders the same way that Berg will.  So what?

      • Rick Olson

        To what degree depends entirely on which party is in the majority and which party is in the minority. 

  • borborygmi

    I remember how Port said that Hoeven is a push over and we(the conservatives) will be able to control him.   All about power and control.   There will always be some group trying to think for their elected officials.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GGQZIXE7MV35GBOFHDPZ5ECJ5A Rulz

    It bothers me that 44% of North Dakotans voted for Earl Pomeroy in 2010.

    The republicans may want to look at Duane Sand in this race.

    Supporting politicians like Heitkamp is a great way for Nodak to lose its low 3.1% unemployment and go down the road of Illinois.

    If you think that a democrat can be moderate, just ask the good people of West Virginia on how Bob Byrd and Joe Manchin sold them out on environmentalism and ObamaCare.
     

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