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Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Florida And Michigan In Play For Democrats?

Interesting...

Howard Dean will not bend the party rules to grandfather in the disputed delegates from Michigan and Florida, the Democratic party chairman said in a statement today.

Instead, he put the state parties on notice: either they can wait and allow the credentials committee to decide whether to seat their delegates, or submit to a re-vote sanctioned under DNC rules. “We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time,” he said in the statement.

“Everyone seems to be asking what the DNC will do,” a Democrat close to Dean said. “But the question is: what will the state parties do.”

Both states went heavily for Hillary last time around, but she was also the only candidate who paid the states any attention.  If one or both do a re-vote, will they go to Hillary again?

My guess is yes, which is why this will be devastating news for Obama if it happens.  This from Florida Democrats chairwoman makes a re-vote sound unlikely in that state:

“It is important also that we are clear about one issue. At this time, no suggested alternative process has been able to meet three specific and necessary requirements: the full participation from both candidates, a guaranteed commitment of the millions of dollars it will cost to conduct the event and a detailed election plan that would enfranchise all Florida Democrats, including our military service members serving in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The Florida Democratic Party cannot consider any alternative that does not meet these requirements. Indeed, it is very possible that no satisfactory alternative plan will emerge, in which case Florida Democrats will remain committed to seating the delegates allocated by the January 29th primary.

Both Florida and Michigan would have to submit their re-vote plans to the national party, get them approved and then execute them by June 10th in order for this to work.

I don’t see it happening.

Comments

Avatar for Lestat

To win the pledged delegates the remaining 12 states would have to go for hillary by 23 points.  If you include Florida and Michigan it is about 20 points.  The super delegates are mostly politicians, they will go with the popular vote.  The race is all but over.

Lestat on March 5, 2008 at 10:11 pm

Man I sure hope they do. I might vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination. I think it would be faster transition to complete desperation for a need to have Republicans back in office in 2010, similar to 1994. Mccain’s to ho hum, he is just more of the same, which isn’t a good thing.

Let’s hope for this to happen, Hillary wins the Presidency, nothing gets done in her term except for failed policies and a real Republican runs in 2012! Yeah!

fargorepublican on March 5, 2008 at 10:14 pm

It is almost too delicious an irony to contemplate that Florida Democrats may now find themselves in the eerie position of citing the US Supreme Court ruling in Bush v. Gore as they try to have a federal judge seat the delegate slate chosen on January 29th.

Of course, on the other side, we could easily have Senator Barack Obama suing the Democrat Party and the DNC to force them to enforce the rulings regarding Florida and Michigan that were issued when those two state parties moved their primary election dates in defiance of the DNC.

Ted Olson must be laughing his ass off.  David Buis, on the other hand, is not available for comment.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on March 5, 2008 at 10:24 pm

The super delegates are mostly politicians, they will go with the popular vote.

No, that’s not the case.  Otherwise there wouldn’t be any point to the superdelegates.

They are there as a “back-door” by the DNC establishment to ensure that the candidate that the DNC thinks is most electable gets in.  The only way Barack can guarantee the nomination is by winning the committed delegates out right, and that’s pretty unlikely now.

If Hillary continues to gain momentum, and if the press swings back to a more neutral position with respect to Barack, by the time of the convention, she may (again) be viewed as the stronger candidate, and all bets are off.

Carrick on March 5, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Rob
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Man I sure hope they do. I might vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination. I think it would be faster transition to complete desperation for a need to have Republicans back in office in 2010, similar to 1994.

I actually think voting against McCain and electing a Hillary or Obama is like a repeat of Jimmy Carter.  It perhaps sets the stage for another Reagan.


The war against illegal plunder has been fought since the beginning of the world. But how is… legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime. Then abolish this law without delay … If such a law is not abolished immediately it will spread, multiply and develop into a system.

Frédéric Bastiat, The Law

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Rob on March 5, 2008 at 10:48 pm

I actually think voting against McCain and electing a Hillary or Obama is like a repeat of Jimmy Carter.  It perhaps sets the stage for another Reagan.

Rob,

I see your point, but I honestly believe there is simply too much at stake to hand it over to either Hillary or Obama.

The three most significant issues in this election are national security and the war against Islamist terror, a return to solid, sustained economic growth, and judicial appointments, starting with two likely SCOTUS seats.  On any one of those issues alone, the election of a Democrat would be an unmitigated disaster for this country, the effects of which would far outlast a single White House term in office.

Besides, if conservatives are too regain control of the GOP and a return to elected supremacy, it is not going to be done by sitting at home waiting for the second coming of Ronald Reagan.

As Richard Fernandez noted at Belmont yesterday,

(Former UK Conservative MP) Dodge’s advice about the need to remain in the political arena is probably sound because only continued viability in the electoral process gives a movement the necessary skills to compete in that process. One of the key advantages of many liberals is that they have no ‘day job’ to go home to. Politics is their life and they become perforce if not competent, at least facile. If conservatives leave the arena they lose skills at a time when they are even more at a premium.

Maybe sitting out a political cycle has its disadvantages.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on March 5, 2008 at 11:02 pm
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I think “sitting around waiting for the second coming of Ronald Reagan” is a little unfair.  I realize that not even Reagan was perfect.  I’m not looking for perfection.  I’m just looking for much, much better than McCain.

And I don’t think refusing to support McCain means conservatives are necessarily sitting out of the political process.  The White House race isn’t the only race in the country.  Time to go back to the farm teams and start developing talent on the local level.


The war against illegal plunder has been fought since the beginning of the world. But how is… legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime. Then abolish this law without delay … If such a law is not abolished immediately it will spread, multiply and develop into a system.

Frédéric Bastiat, The Law

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on March 5, 2008 at 11:11 pm

And I don’t think refusing to support McCain means conservatives are necessarily sitting out of the political process.  The White House race isn’t the only race in the country.  Time to go back to the farm teams and start developing talent on the local level.

I agree. 

The McCainiacs’ premise seems to be that he is even Conservative.  He is not. 

I don’t think he will be any better than Hillary or Obama, and very likely worse.  I say worse because as he kow-tows to the Left, does their bidding and as the economy tanks and we suffer diplomatic setbacks while he is in, it will be the Republican Party that will be scape-goated.  You can be certain of that. 

The MSM will be beating the McCain-GOP scapegoat like a red-headed stepchild, even though the screwups are the result of the McCain-DNC actions.  Try to get the squishy middle to trip the Lever for a GOP candidate after that.

Ain’t gonna happen.

Compare that to the 1993 situation.  House-Senate-WH all Dems and they had no place to hide from their boners.  They had to own them. The 1994 Bloodletting was the result.  Remember that?

Anyhow, that’s my take. 

The nagging and squawking isn’t doing anything to change my mind, since I don’t hear it being backed up by anything substantive.

I tell you what.

I will vote for McCain on ONE condition, and it is this:

McCain takes on someone like Newt Gingrich as a running mate.  He signs a binding contract with those who vote for him that he will NOT do those things he has been doing to undermine the Conservative cause since at least 2000. 

No more gun control legislation, no more amnesty for illegals, no more blocking tax reform or Conservative justices.  He allows the repeal of McCain-Feingold, he stays on the GOP side of the aisle.

IF HE STRAYS he automatically resigns the office of the President and it goes to Newt, Fred, Bob Allen or whoever is Vice.  Do not pass go, do not collect $200, go directly to retirement.

Is it gonna happen?

Doubt it.


...for great justice

Move_Zig on March 5, 2008 at 11:45 pm
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