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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Federal Deficit Still Shrinking

Thanks to a continued surge in tax revenue.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Congressional Budget Office on Thursday estimated that the federal deficit will narrow to $260 billion in the current fiscal year, down from $318 billion in fiscal 2005, amid surging tax revenues.


The new figure, contained in CBO's annual summer budget update, is $112 billion lower than the nonpartisan agency's March projection. The $260 billion figure matches an estimate contained in a monthly CBO report released a few weeks ago.


"Higher-than-anticipated revenues, mostly from individual and corporate income taxes, account for the bulk of that improvement," the CBO report said.


Measured against the economy, the 2006 deficit is equal to around 2% of gross domestic product, down from around 2.6% in fiscal 2005. In nominal terms, the deficit hit an all-time high of $412 billion in fiscal 2004, a figure equal to 3.6% of GDP.


Acting CBO Director Donald B. Marron told reporters that the updated figures show the federal deficit has been reduced to a "sustainable" level.


"We have gone from a period in which the fiscal deficits we were running in this country were large and not sustainable if they had persisted to a situation in which at least now and next year, for several years going forward, the deficits appear to be in a range that they are sustainable -- not to say that they are good or bad," Marron said.



So much for the insistence by liberals that tax cuts cause deficits. As long as we're on the correct side of the Laffer Curve (and we were when Bush introduced his tax cuts in his first term) tax cuts increase tax revenues. This is an undeniable fact, yet Democrats would have you believe it isn't true. They'd have you believe that Bush's tax cuts have increased the deficits. They haven't. The Democrats are fibbing because they want to keep more money in the government rather than letting it stay in the pockets of the people.

What this country needs to do now, if we are interested in keeping the federal deficit shrinking, is cut spending. The only thing keeping the federal deficits from growing now is the fact that spending growth is being outpaced by increases in tax revenue:

taxesandspendinggrowth2005t.gif


Clearly, the next step for fiscally responsible leaders is to cut back on spending growth. And if we're truly interested in curbing spending growth we need to focus on entitlements. All this stuff about "porkbusting" is nice (certainly earmark spending is a problem), but the sort of spending we need to address is entitlement spending which absolutely dwarfs earmarks in terms of scope and waste. We are spending approximatley $3 billion/day on the big three entitlements (Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid) and that spending is growing at a rate of about 8% annually.

Clearly, this is unsustainable.

Sadly, there aren't any Democrats (and not many Republicans) who are willing to take on entitlement spending. Far too many political leaders like the idea of using pork/entitlement spending to pander to certain special interest groups. That mentality has got to end for the sake of this country.

Comments

Avatar for Mary Katharine

Hey Rob! Thanks for the link. I would argue that Porkbusting can be a good, low-hanging-fruit way to create a political climate in which we can work on reining in entitlement spending, so it can be sustainable. Liberals would call this a conspiracy against social spending, and some have. I call it a “you gotta start somewhere” strategy for government responsibility. Pork is easy to explain, easy to deride, and going after it can make the whole process more transparent. Good stuff for everyone.

Mary Katharine on August 22, 2006 at 01:27 pm
Avatar for Bill Woody

Clearly, this is unsustainable.

What is unsustainable? The fact that our economy is growing faster than government expendatures? The fact that we continue to generate wealth at a faster clip than it gets confiscated for governmental spending?

The fact that tax cuts have caused the economy to grow faster than government taxation should be good news--but instead, it’s spun as “well, the Dems are idiots--but it still sucks.”

Sounds to me like this should be spun as good news--not with all this doom and gloom “yeah, things are rosy--but every cloud does have a black center.”

Bill Woody on August 22, 2006 at 03:53 pm
Avatar for The Whistler

Generally I’d agree with you Woody, but the stated deficit numbers do not reflect the future expenditures.

When you look at what will happen when those slacker baby boomers retire (I’m closer to the tail end myself) the long term budget situation is unsustainable.

But your right that there is some obvious good news out there.  When we look at the deficit and the debt it must be compared to the size of the economy and not in absolute numbers.

The Whistler on August 22, 2006 at 03:57 pm
Avatar for The Whistler

“By far the bulk of new funding — 75% of it — has been to restore the hollowed-out military the president inherited, strengthen homeland defenses after 9/11, and fight the war on terror,” says Scott Milburn, spokesman for the Office of Management and Budget. “These are essential investments that were required ... to protect our nation.”

That’s what governments for.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,

The Whistler on August 22, 2006 at 04:13 pm
Avatar for The Whistler

Woof, that second quote was from the Declaration of Independence.

The Whistler on August 22, 2006 at 04:14 pm
Avatar for WOOF

I was gonna discuss that Declaration stuff with Miss Anne when I walked by her place this weekend.
But she went back in the house.
Thought she’d have a spiffier car. Maybe a rental.

Miss Anne’s House

WOOF on August 22, 2006 at 04:29 pm

Woof: It’s that kind of hate stuff that gives blogging a bad name.  What purpose does that serve?  Can’t make a reasoned argument?


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on August 22, 2006 at 04:38 pm
Avatar for WOOF

Not hate,
Snark for Snark.

WOOF on August 22, 2006 at 05:43 pm
Avatar for 2Hotel9

Prove the deficit is not shrinking, woofie. Well, we are waiting.

2Hotel9 on August 22, 2006 at 05:48 pm
Avatar for WOOF

This years deficit is 260 Billion.
This does not effect the last 5 years of deficits, this is the current fiscal years deficit figure.

Smaller than last fiscal year, but yet another deficit.

WOOF on August 22, 2006 at 05:58 pm
Avatar for Carrick

Mary Katharine

I would argue that Porkbusting can be a good, low-hanging-fruit way to create a political climate in which we can work on reining in entitlement spending, so it can be sustainable.

You’re also taking a risk that you’ll use up all of your political capital on what may amount to a non-problem.  As I’ve point out on this blog before, simply because it fits the rubric “pork barrel spending” doesn’t mean that it’s really wasteful.

The real objection to earmark spending should be that it isn’t as carefully reviewed as perhaps it should be (too few checks and balances).  However, much of the money, if you review it carefully is not poorly spent.  Such as improvements of rural roads here in Mississippi, which, it turns out, are the most hazardous in the country, due to their narrow widths, winding nature, and little or no shoulders.

Carrick on August 22, 2006 at 06:06 pm
Avatar for The Whistler

Such as improvements of rural roads here in Mississippi, which, it turns out, are the most hazardous in the country, due to their narrow widths, winding nature, and little or no shoulders.

Why does that funding have to come from somewhere else.  Of course I realize that North Dakota is far from perfect for having other people pay for our roads.  At least we haven’t wasted the opportunity to have a great road system.

The Whistler on August 22, 2006 at 06:10 pm
Avatar for Carrick

TW:

Why does that funding have to come from somewhere else.

In a republic, smaller states generally take in more receipts than they pay, which occurs independent to the taxation level.  You can argue whether you think that is a good thing or not.

Carrick on August 22, 2006 at 06:23 pm
Avatar for The Whistler

In a republic, smaller states generally take in more receipts than they pay, which occurs independent to the taxation level. You can argue whether you think that is a good thing or not.

I was aware of the the trend.  I don’t agree with it.  What’s the moral justification for taking some-one’s wealth and transferring it to ND or Mississippi.

The Whistler on August 22, 2006 at 06:27 pm
Rob
Rob
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Well, if we’re just talking about infrastructure there is a justification for other states paying for roads/train tracks in ND.  This state produces a lot of food crops, and the rest of the country benefits when ND farmers can get their crops to market (using roads and railroads).


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on August 22, 2006 at 09:55 pm
Avatar for Carrick

Good point.  For Mississippi, it would be predominantly rice, cotton & farm-raised cat fish.

Carrick on August 22, 2006 at 10:28 pm

Rob: “Well, if we’re just talking about infrastructure there is a justification for other states paying for roads/train tracks in ND. This state produces a lot of food crops, and the rest of the country benefits when ND farmers can get their crops to market (using roads and railroads).”

Govt is not necessary here.  All that is required is that the transportation people act in their own best interest and build the infrastructure necessary to do their thing.  They are guided by the desire to make money, and they do that by moving goods and services from one place to the other.  We have a general policy that the govt builds that infrastructure by confiscating money from the productive citizens, but that doesn’t have to be so, especially in this time of widespread private ownership of capital.  It seems as if ND’s citizens can afford to build and maintain their own roads, in any case.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on August 22, 2006 at 10:39 pm
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