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Friday, November 23, 2007

Exports Rock to the Weak Dollar!

Kiplinger (Subscription Required):

Exports will buoy the 2008 economy.  They’re expanding faster than imports and will generate half of the 1.5% to 2% growth we expect. That’s up from one-quarter of gains in 2007, the first time since 1995 that exports made a positive contribution to annual GDP.

A kinder, gentler trade gap is on tap.  It’ll amount to about 3.8% of GDP in 2008, the smallest share of GDP in seven years and down substantially from this year’s 5.1%.

Thank global growth and the weak dollar for America’s most recent export surge. The greenback should soon hit its lowest level, on a trade-weighted basis, since the currency began to float freely in the markets in 1973.

The low buck will have a long tail. Even if the dollar were to start rebounding at this point, the lag effect of its six-year swoon would fuel exports for a few years. Why? It takes businesses a long time to adjust
to currency changes. Finding new suppliers is easier said than done.  That’s why the weaker dollar didn’t instantly boost sales abroad.

I remember when I was a youngster and the doom and gloomers where claiming that we were going to sink to the Japanese.  They used the falling dollar compared to the Yen to prove their point.  As we all know Japan was nothing that we couldn’t handle, and neither is China. 

Thinking that your currency has to be the strongest is the mark of a child.  I fell for that line of thinking that time, but now I know better.  I guess some people are going to be surprised again.

The US export industry is alive and well no matter what the gloom and doomsters have to say. 

Comments

And it is a buyer’s market right now. The stupid fold, the smart buy.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on November 23, 2007 at 03:39 pm
Avatar for spartacus

A weak dollar makes the “buy American” crowd happy too since the cost of imports goes up. They can finally practice what they preach.

The flip side, however, is that companies like the one I work for will make fewer capital investments in the short term, which impacts future productivity. And thus the pendulum swings.

spartacus on November 23, 2007 at 05:16 pm
Avatar for Carter Wood

Right you are, Rob. It’s a big topic here at the National Association of Manufacturers, with exports offsetting the economic decline caused by the housing slowdown.

Dyke Messinger of Power Curbers (North Carolina) was on NPR this being interviewed by John Ystdie on exports. (John grew up north of Rugby, by the way.)I blogged about it here. Smart things Dyke said:

I’d like to think that our machines are becoming more and more accepted and they’re choosing ours over the competition. But let’s say it’s really more market-driven. The world’s coming closer together. There’s more infrastructure development. Countries are becoming more open, economies are more privatized, so the need to move people and goods and services is much more important. But also the dollar has been falling against most all currencies, but especially the Euro.

BTW, I heard some economist talk about how the dollar isn’t necessarily weak historically. In the 90s, when Japan’s economy collapsed pulling much of Asia with it, the Yen fell against the dollar, so now we’re returning to an historical average. At least that’s one view.

Thanks, cw

P.S. Good things going on in energy in North Dakota.

Carter Wood on November 23, 2007 at 09:04 pm

You realize, of course, that everything will now cost you personally more. Hurray!

U.S. companies who have their manufacturing done off shore will now be sending more dollars to dump to places like China so, they will either make less or have to raise their prices. Want to take odds on which will occur?

This should make you happy, too. Home Depot in Gilroy, California had a cost of living pay reduction. The store claimed that the cost of living in Gilroy actually went down so they reduced everyone’s wage by 5%. Falling home prices were the heroes not that anyone working at Home Depot can afford to buy a home.

One of the Bay Area’s largest lumber companies just laid off 500 people. This, also of course, has nothing to do with anything unless it’s started to hit you as well.

That the export business is alive and well because the dollar dropped in value is good for who, exactly?

ews48 on November 23, 2007 at 09:17 pm

That the export business is alive and well because the dollar dropped in value is good for who,(sic) exactly?

Whom. Apparently not the makers of grammar textbooks!



A troll is someone who only wants to stir up trouble, not have an honest debate.  Some signs that a poster is a troll:
* Dodges questions from other posters * Refuses to give sources
* When one of its arguments is shown to be false, either ignores the proof or moves the goalposts.  Heh. (From the LGF faq)

Proof on November 23, 2007 at 09:26 pm
Avatar for OregonGuy

I think I agree with your thesis. My thoughts here.

OregonGuy on November 23, 2007 at 11:26 pm

ews, do you really want to go into why the timber and lumber industry in the western states went into its deathspiral? You really want to visit what your Party, the Democrat Party, and the environazis have done to that industry, how they drove all the small operators out and helped consolidate into the hands of a very small group of companies? All owned by an even smaller group of Democrat partisans? Is that really where you want to go with this?


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on November 24, 2007 at 05:44 am
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