Did The CBO Report Double Count Medicare Deficit Savings Again?
The CBO released a preliminary scoring of the health care bill Democrats are attempting to cram through Congress, and the results have liberals cheering. Because on the face of things it makes the bill look wonderful. Per Politico the CBO says the bill “would cost $940 billion, and reduce the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the second 10 years.”
You can download and read the release by clicking here, though it’s not loading for me right now.
What bothers me is that this is a preliminary scoring, a point Dan Riehl makes:
Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections. (CBO Director Doug Elmendorf, Letter To Rep. Nancy Pelosi, 3/18/10, P.1)
Remember that, previously, the CBO had double counted the deficit savings from Medicare cuts in the Senate bill. And as far as I know, that double-counting is still happening.
What’s more, ask yourself what government estimate of costs has ever been accurate? Take Medicare for instance:
The cost of Medicare is a good place to begin. At its start, in 1966, Medicare cost $3 billion. The House Ways and Means Committee estimated that Medicare would cost only about $ 12 billion by 1990 (a figure that included an allowance for inflation). This was a supposedly “conservative” estimate. But in 1990 Medicare actually cost $107 billion.
Anyone thinking that this CBO scoring of the health care bill tells the real story of what it’s going to cost the American taxpayer is a fool.
And ask yourself this: How is the CBO scoring a reconciliation bill…that doesn’t exist yet?



