Did The CBO Report Double Count Medicare Deficit Savings Again?

The CBO released a preliminary scoring of the health care bill Democrats are attempting to cram through Congress, and the results have liberals cheering. Because on the face of things it makes the bill look wonderful. Per Politico the CBO says the bill “would cost $940 billion, and reduce the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the second 10 years.”
You can download and read the release by clicking here, though it’s not loading for me right now.
What bothers me is that this is a preliminary scoring, a point Dan Riehl makes:

Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections. (CBO Director Doug Elmendorf, Letter To Rep. Nancy Pelosi, 3/18/10, P.1)

Remember that, previously, the CBO had double counted the deficit savings from Medicare cuts in the Senate bill. And as far as I know, that double-counting is still happening.
What’s more, ask yourself what government estimate of costs has ever been accurate? Take Medicare for instance:

The cost of Medicare is a good place to begin. At its start, in 1966, Medicare cost $3 billion. The House Ways and Means Committee estimated that Medicare would cost only about $ 12 billion by 1990 (a figure that included an allowance for inflation). This was a supposedly “conservative” estimate. But in 1990 Medicare actually cost $107 billion.

Anyone thinking that this CBO scoring of the health care bill tells the real story of what it’s going to cost the American taxpayer is a fool.
And ask yourself this: How is the CBO scoring a reconciliation bill…that doesn’t exist yet?

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  • http://Array Son of Liberty

    real cost is $1.5-2 Trillion at least.
    Follow the rabbit down the hole.
    $940 billion occur almost entirely in the last 6 years. And yeah they need $54 billion in the year 2014, no benefits yet, for???? Saving costs… you know.
    Anyway, take $940 Bill / 6 years = $156.6 billion a year the true cost of the program (well maybe, but see below). $156.6 billion a year *10 years = $1.566 trillion. Now throw on top of it $50 billion that CBO said on March 11, is needed to implement the program. And you have $1.6 trillion cost for 10 years.

    Now don’t have a heart attack just yet. We haven’t gotten to the fun part. Look at the last three years when the program is in full swing. What is the average cost? $200 bill a year. Now multiply that by 10 years and you have $2 trillion. But fun doesn’t stop here. Look at the trajectory of the annual costs. It increases without stabilizing… Up and Up we go

  • sayanything-4625

    Yes and they even tell you that in their own way. Read that last sentence and the footnote.

    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11307/Reid_Letter_HR3590.pdf

    There is some question as to how section 3112 of H.R. 3590, which changes funding for the Medicare Improvement Fund (MIF), would be implemented. That section would
    strike the amount that, until recently, was the funding provided for the MIF for 2014 and
    replace it with zero, thereby yielding savings that would offset part of the cost of
    H.R. 3590. However, the underlying provision that section 3112 would amend was
    changed by the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2010 (Public Law 111-118),
    so the amount of current-law funding for 2014 has changed (from about $22.3 billion to
    $20.7 billion). This estimate incorporates the assumption that enacting H.R. 3590 would
    reduce the funding for the MIF for 2014 to zero—the clear intent of section 3112—thus
    yielding savings of $20.7 billion. An alternative interpretation would be that enacting
    section 3112 would have no effect because it now contains an incorrect reference to
    current law. However, experts in appropriations law and statutory construction have
    advised CBO that, regardless of the technical error in describing current-law funding, the
    intention to set the funding at zero in 2014 is clear, and the provision would probably be
    interpreted and implemented accordingly.

    7 Statutory interpretation usually begins and ends with the plain meaning of legislative language. In rare cases where a literal interpretation would be demonstrably at odds with Congressional intent, an interpretation that gives full effect to Congressional intent is preferred over a literal interpretation. See United States v. Ron Pair Enters., Inc., 489 U.S. 235, 242 (1989). Further, a literal interpretation would render section 3112 a nullity—a result to be avoided under principles of statutory interpretation.

    In other words, we score this according to the intent of Congress not a literal interpretation of the law the way its written.

    Plus this isn’t the true cost.

    CBO has not completed an estimate of all of the discretionary costs that would be
    associated with H.R. 3590. (Those costs would depend on future appropriations and are
    not included in the tables accompanying this letter.) As indicated in CBO’s earlier
    estimate, such costs would probably include an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion over
    10 years for administrative costs of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and at least a
    similar amount for expenses of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
    CBO has also identified at least $50 billion in specified and estimated authorizations of
    future discretionary spending for a number of grant programs and other provisions of the
    legislation; whether some or all of those costs would be incurred would depend on future
    appropriation legislation.

    The bill is loaded with discretionary costs that will have to be filled in by appropriations later. While the CBO “estimates” that those costs could be as high as $50 billion they admit they really don’t know what the costs are.

    “CBO has not yet completed estimates of the amounts of such authorizations, and, in some cases, the legislation does not offer sufficient guidance to determine estimates of what the ‘necessary’ amounts might be,” the memo said.

    In reality, no one knows what the bill will cost. This is all political theater.

  • StSixtus

    Is it double counting if it happens more than twice?

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    I don’t understand how they’re talking about cutting medicare when the
    programs broke and is going to need more money dumped into it.

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