Say Anything Blog

Caveats on U.S. job growth, The New York Times MONDAY, AUGUST 8, 2005

With Friday’s announcement that 207,000 new jobs were created in the United States in July - nearly 30,000 more than had been forecast - Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao took to the airwaves to repeat the administration’s mantra about the economy being “strong and getting stronger.” But if you look behind the headline number, the jobs picture - and what it says about the economy - is considerably more nuanced.

With July’s number, the average monthly job creation so far this year comes to 191,000. (Since the spring of 2003, when job losses bottomed out, the monthly average has been 152,000.) That’s enough to absorb the 150,000 or so new workers who enter the labor force each month, and then some. Still, it’s not robust.

Employment rates - the share of the population that is employed, broken down by groups - tell a similar story. The rates ticked up slightly for most groups in July, including for African-American men and high school dropouts. That’s encouraging because it’s generally assumed that if the least-advantaged workers can find jobs, higher-skilled workers will do even better. Nevertheless, employment rates are still well below their most recent peak in 2000.

Because the demand for workers has been subpar for some four years now, wages have suffered. Average hourly wages rose a surprising 0.4 percent in July, the strongest monthly surge in a year. But they’re up only 2.7 percent over the past year, hardly keeping up with inflation. Asked about that Friday, Chao replied that overall compensation - which includes employer-provided health care and other benefits - was rising faster than the cost of living. That’s correct, but somewhat disingenuous. The fact that workers’ raises are, in effect, being diverted to cover the exploding cost of benefits is hardly a positive development
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/07/opinion/edjobs.php

Strong hiring shows depth of expansion
In July, 207,000 new jobs were created, the most since April

NEW YORK – A growing United States economy is starting to soak up the ranks of the unemployed.

Service-sector firms from accounting to hotels to restaurants are on a hiring binge. Their search for workers is starting to cause the labor markets to tighten - which is beginning to reduce the ranks of those who have been searching for work. In the months ahead, economists anticipate the quest for workers will spread to the manufacturing sector, which has been laying workers off to date.

A healthy job market has important implications for the economy - from Federal Reserve policy to the mood on Main Street. More workers add buying power, sustaining the economic recovery. Job growth also increases the amount of taxes collected, which could help reduce the federal budget deficit. It could also help wages increase, which will help consumers keep up with rising interest rates and higher fuel prices.

“Job creation is the lifeblood of the economy and it’s flowing very good right now,” says Anthony Chan, an economist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio. “You have everything working right.”

The evidence of this improvement surfaced Friday, when the Department of Labor reported 207,000 new jobs were created in July, the best showing since April. This was a marked improvement over the 166,000 created in June. Importantly, wages rose 0.4 percent, twice as fast as economists had anticipated. The unemployment rate remained at 5 percent as news of a better job market spread and more people entered the workforce.

“We saw a big surge in the labor-force growth of 450,000 people, and this tells me when people realize the economic recovery is real, they will come out of the woodwork,” says Mr. Chan.

The improvement in the labor market is not a surprise to Roy Krause, president of Spherion, an employment agency based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “We have more jobs and orders than people,” he says, including a surge in permanent hiring. Finding quality candidates is proving difficult, he says.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0808/p01s02-usec.html

Contrast the New York Times hit piece at the top, with the headlines and story content on the second column.  This has been an ongoing thing since it was highlighted during the last election.  A study came out showing the the AP, Reuters, NYT and others talked in glowing terms about the economy when Clinton was in office, and then with the same economic numbers for Bush, said that the economy was going nowhere, or in bad shape.  This is a recurring theme if you pay attention to the headlines coming from AP/Reuters/New York Times, and contrast them with the same economic data on the same date, with headlines coming from Bloomberg News, various market & financial news outlets, various other MSM markets with a smaller ax to burn.

Throw in the counts of negative stories vs. positive stories for Bush, positive stories vs. negative stories for Clinton, mix it in with slanted financial quarterlies, and you have your answer to why the public sentiment is in bad shape (but improving: http://www.investors.com/editorial/issues03.asp?v=8/10
Sentiment Snaps Out Of Doldrums On Wave Of Strong Economic Data)

I think a lot of people want the economy to be bad so they can sit in the dark and complain about the Republicans.

A strong economy isn’t going to stop them from believing what they want.

Truly, every boom has some busts.  If you concentrate on the busts rather than the overall picture you can believe what you want.

Note that nothing is mentioned about productivity.  With higher productivity, you have lower job growth and/or lower wage rises.  Also, look at what part of the economic cycle we are in.  Wages for low paid workers are always latest to rise in the business cycle, at the tail end of economic expansion.  We aren’t at the tail end yet, but wages and/or benefits (all part of compensation) for low paid workers are starting to rise.  And as labor availability continues to tighten, that’s when you get the highest wage gains for individuals on most parts of the economic ladder, especially in the low wage range where the shortages are starting to show now.

Let’s not forget that tax receipts for the federal government are coming in higher than expected, knocking years off the deficit projections.  Just a year ago, it was all doom and gloom, now its turned around. 

How much did 9/11 take out of the economy?  How long has the US been financing a war?  How much has Bush been forced to spend to bring the military back up to strength after the Clinton team cut it to bare bones, when we had reports during peace time of soldiers lacking such basics as helmets and other equipment (search Nexxus for readiness reports during Clinton’s administration).  What about the cruise missiles that Clinton fired at the milk factory and training camps, which weren’t reordered and replaced until he left office and left the bill to the next administration?

Would we be getting the same hit pieces from the NYT, Reuters, AP if Gore or Kerry was in office?  Or would the jobs/economy situation if it were the same be explained away as increased productivity?

The most important things to look at when comparing administrations is, 1) where did the money come from for balancing budget/economic spending (change in Congress?, Cutting military spending?  Not replacing weapons systems after using them, cruise missiles?)

2) Did the administration you are comparing inherit a growing or shrinking economy prior to taking office?

3) Did the economy turn on a dime when the new administration took office?  Or did it take time for changes to take effect?  If it did turn around on a dime, is it possible that credit belongs to the prior administration?

4) If you are crediting the administration you are analyzing for improved economic conditions when they first enter office, what are the specific actions they took that created those instantaneous better economic conditions, and would neutral economists also give the credit you are giving?

5) How long did it take once a new administration was sworn in, for the cabinet officers to be approved by Congress?  Did the economy start turning around even before this happened? If so, did they possess some magical ability in improving the economy for actions they couldn’t have taken because they weren’t even appointed to their positions yet?

Make a timeline (chart it).  Include Dow Jones, inflation, military spending, unemployment, prime rate, a couple dozen other metrics, and go back to when Dow Jones started.  Watch what happens before, during, after each war.  Before, during, after each interest rate cut/raise.  Before, during, after international events. Scandals. Tax cuts. Tax raises.  Then include footnotes/links to what the MSM reports for economic conditions/changes/quarterlies.  And footnotes/links to other relevant events that have a bearing on what shows in the timeline chart.

This is a “good job” for the MSM, they’ve perpetuated the myth that our economy still sucks.

While I didn’t follow politics much in the 90’s, I do remember hearing about the roaring economy quite a bit.  I don’t hear that anymore even though the economy is in many ways just as strong now

Maybe because gas is like over $2.50 a gallon where I am?

OUR ECONOMY DOES SUCK. READ AND REALIZE WHY.

First of all, the elements of this economy that have been improved only matter to a select few. Other matters which take effect on many, country wide are such as high taxes, excessive and even erratic gas prices effect everyone. You (all tho disagree) can think that things are just fine from whatever standpoint you’re from, but from where i stand, Myself, and everyone around me sees that the economic situation isn’t so great for the middle and lower classes. It even seems that the government is admitting its defeat as they raise the prices of necessities like oil, and cigarettes (for some). The value of a dollar is diminishing, and we still get paid the same. The price of tolls rise from what Ive seen as low as 1$ to now 3.50$. and if you dint pay this? They bill it to you. And if you don’t pay that bill? They increase the price exponentially until you do pay. If you cant pay for the Train, and you hop over the bar and run away, and you get caught, you get fined 100 dollars or more. Thats about 50 times ad much as the initial price of entrance. I got pulled over because my friend had his seat belt off. yep, he got fined 80 dollars. I don’t get this click it or ticket business, but I assume that its another sorry excuse for this government to wring more money out of its people to pay for its citizens’ children to die in the desert. And of cruse, if you don’t pay things like parking tickets, and such, you get a warrant for your arrest. They need money so badly, that they are willing to take away your freedom over 200$ bucks. Its a load of frivolous garbage, and I’m sick of it. If you rick, fat ass republicans could feel the financial stranglehold on America right now you would resign from your party and wish you didn’t vote for this moron in office in the first place. THIS IS NOT A WAR FOR OIL. If it is, WHERE IS THE OIL! If we wanted to we could kill every person in that giant dustpan and take the oil, but why do that? We love war, the media loves war, the government loves war because it promotes loyalty and other bighearted sentiments towards this country. I don’t stand up for the pledge of allegiance. That flag and this country have done everything possible to destroy our rights since i can fucking remember. If youre curious as to why I say then then email me and ask, I’d love you to.

Whoops, thats

David spits out, If you rick, fat ass republicans could feel the financial stranglehold on America right now you would resign from your party and wish you didn’t vote for this moron in office in the first place.

Excellent argument David. Thank you for reminding me why I’m a Republican.  It must be because I’m a “rich, fat ass”.  Grand way to get through to us buddy.

I don’t stand up for the pledge of allegiance. That flag and this country have done everything possible to destroy our rights since i can fucking remember.

Blahblahblah. Blah blah. Blah blah.

So because the tolls have gone up, gas prices have gone up, and your buddy got a ticket recently, our economy sucks....

Riiiiiiiight

Wow! What an angry, disjointed, little person. Wonder how he would deal with my gas bill. Dumptruck that gets about 7 mpg. Not to mention the cost of materials. As for click it or ticket, how hard is it to fake wearing a seatbelt? How simply stupid can people get.

I see alot of replies, and the only one with a hint of logic is So because the tolls have gone up, gas prices have gone up, and your buddy got a ticket recently, our economy sucks….

Of course, it seemed like this person was skimming through looking for something to spite me. Ouch, my pride hurts, it hurts real bad. If this person, or any of you for that matter were trying to make a valid argument against me, it would involve the statement of facts, or some literature or even a link as to prove me wrong. But, nothing.

Wow! What an angry, disjointed, little person. Wonder how he would deal with my gas bill. Dumptruck that gets about 7 mpg. Not to mention the cost of materials. As for click it or ticket, how hard is it to fake wearing a seatbelt? How simply stupid can people get.

Well 2Hotel9, when it comes to how stupid people can get, you’ve raised (lowered?) the bar. Its not about the situation in and of itself, its what the situation represents. Oh, and we all know we can fake wearing a seatbelt. So instead of reading for a minute, losing interest, then nit picking my writing, looking for something useable against me, try thinking. Its a new concept for most of you republicans, but i think you’ll pull through. Think: If our economy was so great, why would the federal government be pinching pennies in such ways as cuttting funds to the schol system, en important element of our society. what the hell happened thats more important to our future? Kids are are future arent they? Oh yeah, it must have been that war which has cost more then 20,000 lives, and which is draining lives of their own quality by increasing taxes, to support the mass production of tools used to kill people. This makes some people think that we are putting war in front of some other priorities. Maybe if we pulled out, people would stop dying (from our country at least), families would be re-united, taxes would go down, the worlds opinion of us may get a bit better, since we borrowed money from some of our smaller, less powerful allies and owe millions in debt. If the economy was so great, we wouldnt have borrowed that money in the first place and could have supported our own habit. If some of you who respond take a moment to concider some things about the war, and what its taken from the public, instead of trying to draw attention to my personal short commings, and posting complete nonsense like this

“I don’t stand up for the pledge of allegiance. That flag and this country have done everything possible to destroy our rights since i can fucking remember.”

Blahblahblah. Blah blah. Blah blah.
(HAHA!!!  SARCASM IS SO CLASSY, AND SO WITTY, AND IS SO FUNNY!!!)

fuck it, so about half way through this, i realised, I dont care what you think. You live your own lives where your own speculations are the ones that matter. Why should i bother trying to get thgrough to you? You think what you will, head in ass, and my futile attempts to acclimate you to logic will go unnoticed. Oh well. Hah. What a waste of time this was.

Exactly what logic are you trying to acclimate people to? The logic of shared misery? I have read through all your missives and find nothing but naysaying and selfpity. The economy is expanding, no matter how loudly you screech and stamp your little foot. As for public schools, we are not cutting spending from the federal level, far from it. As for spending at the local level, that is within your control. Want more money spent, then run for a position on your local school board and make it happen. As for the rest of your last screed, Blah,Blah,Blah,Blah. Get a grip and a clue. If life is so terrible then do some thing about it. And remember, don’t cross the road, up&down the tracks for quickest results.

I see alot of replies, and the only one with a hint of logic is So because the tolls have gone up, gas prices have gone up, and your buddy got a ticket recently, our economy sucks….

That was me! :-D I’m so proud right now…

fuck it, so about half way through this, i realised, I dont care what you think. You live your own lives where your own speculations are the ones that matter. Why should i bother trying to get thgrough to you? You think what you will, head in ass, and my futile attempts to acclimate you to logic will go unnoticed. Oh well. Hah. What a waste of time this was.

Tip for you David… Grow up!  This is a forum in which you chose to engage in reasoned debate.  If you don’t like someone’s response, tell us where we are wrong.

See the problem with your initial post was that it was based almost entirely on personal evidence, as I stated in my response.  When you look at the economy AS A WHOLE, it doesn’t really matter what numbers you are looking at they almost unanimously point to a very healthy and growing economy.  I’m sorry if you’re personal situation is not such, but most Americans are doing quite well.  You can go ahead and pout about sour times, we are just choosing not to join you in your pessimism…

(btw, there is a spell checker button in the comment field for a reason…

Come on, A. Don’t harsh his buzz by dissing his spelling. Where is the love, babe!

David say:

fuck it, so about half way through this, i realised, I dont care what you think. You live your own lives where your own speculations are the ones that matter. Why should i bother trying to get thgrough to you? You think what you will, head in ass, and my futile attempts to acclimate you to logic will go unnoticed. Oh well. Hah. What a waste of time this was.

Thanks for the love.

David said, You think what you will, head in ass, and my futile attempts to acclimate you to logic will go unnoticed. Oh well. Hah. What a waste of time this was.

Alrighty then! See ya later jackass. Have fun wallowing in the pathetic self pity that you call “logic”.

::sigh:: And ironically, I forgot to spell check::sigh::

polietly = politely

cheker = checker

I’m really not THAT terrible of a speller, this laptop keyboard is on it’s way out however and certain letters (C and V most often) don’t register when I push them…

Come on, A. Don’t harsh his buzz by dissing his spelling. Where is the love, babe!

Not dissing, polietly pointing out the wonderful spell-cheker that I use oh-so-often! :-D