Say Anything Blog

That’s essentially what the new report from the CBO says, if not exactly in those words.

Today, CBO released its Long-Term Budget Outlook, projecting deficits will hit 7.5% of GDP by 2020, almost 15% by 2035, and well over 40% by the end of the 75-year budget window if we continue current policies. Driving these deficits is the rapid growth of Medicare, Medicaid, and to a lesser extent Social Security, along with the subsequent interest payments that result from high levels of debt sustained through continued borrowing.

A debate exists among experts, though, over the source of growth over these programs. OMB Director (and former CBO Director) Peter Orszag has been among those arguing that health care cost growth is the primary driver of projected entitlement costs, and that experts there has been an overemphasis on population aging. …

In its newest release, CBO allocates the interaction effect between the two effects, and finds that population aging contributes to closer to 30% of the growth in Medicare and Medicaid. When they look at a less distant year, 2035, they find population aging accounts for about 44% of the growth. And all of this excludes the role of Social Security. Adding this program to the mix, population aging is responsible for around 44% of entitlement growth in 2080, and 64% in 2035.

What this means is that we’ve a growing problem with too many people collecting government entitlements and not enough people working to actually fund those entitlements.  Which is a problem stemming from big government.  Rather than finding policies that empower people to be independent our politicians are endlessly promoting policies that make people more dependent on government.  We expand government programs.  Raise their budgets.  And to pay for it all, we tax the businesses and individuals who are working more until many of them are forced to become dependent on government as well.

Then the whole process starts over again.

What we need is a shift in thinking.  Rather than a slavish devotion to the idea that the way to help people is to give them access to government programs that then make them dependent on the government we should promote the idea that citizens are individuals, and are best off when they’re dependent on nobody but themselves.

Now, I recognize that not all citizens are capable of that, but even so.  It seems too often that we start with the assumption that government is the best cure, rather than independence.